UK & Ireland - Final Summer 2025 Report For June - August ☀️
Looking further ahead to the rest of April and May after a mixed week of rain/showers, wintry weather/colder conditions, and sunny weather:
The expected weather pattern from around mid-April in all of our short-to-moderate-range weather forecasts of late has played out as expected during this week with various low pressure features, much colder and even wintry conditions in places, and periods of sunshine as the main weather features.
All as depicted in our week-ahead forecast for this period:
https://www.facebook.com/100063588901621/posts/1213411307455155/?app=fbl
Additionally, we did also point out in the same week-ahead forecast and numerous other updates that we expected the influence of multiple low pressure features (heavy rain and windy conditions) to continue for several days after the earlier midweek one in among some periods of better and sunny weather for some, particularly, away from the south and west of the country and Ireland.
https://www.facebook.com/100063588901621/posts/1213411307455155/?app=fbl
This will also be the case for various low pressure features continuing into next week and until around midweek or a little later than around Monday to Wednesday/Thursday in these parts and some parts further afield, and prior to the influence of high pressure and potentially mild to warm conditions developing once again at times over the coming weeks.
However, we did also have longer-range forecast expectations for this colder and potentially wintry weather or even snow to intensify somewhat heading into late April and from on and around April 22, that were also starting to show up repeatedly on the exact same dates within several of the main third-party computer models during the past few weeks.
Additionally, it is quite clear to see that this opportunity has pretty much little or no validity for these original dates of around April 22 going forward and on the basis and consensus of the main third-party computer models going forward for snow potential, although I personally wouldn't rule out some transient snow in places on higher ground at the very least in the coming days.
The recent cooler and unsettled conditions of late could also have been a less potent version of what we were expecting for several days later and are now likely to be replaced with more of a high-pressure-influenced weather pattern as described in the above from later next week (not perfect but definitely more settled and much warmer from later next week).
However, this does not dispel any further unsettled, cooler, and potentially wintry weather to follow on from these high-pressure-influenced weather conditions during early to mid-May, particularly across the north and Scotland in early May, and prior to something potentially much warmer to maybe even hot at times during the second half of May (ALL matching our 100+ days ahead subscribers forecast for these exact periods and weather events in the first and second half of May).
https://exactaweather.com/spring-and-summer-2025
Happy Easter Sunday everyone!
James Madden, Exacta Weather
Copyright © 2010-2025 Exacta Weather - All Rights Reserved.
A largely sunny Easter weekend with some showers or heavy showers in places, particularly in some southern (southwest) and western areas and Ireland on Good Friday and into the early part of the Bank Holiday weekend…
The main third-party computer models appear to have backed away from any wintry precipitation or snow potential during late April.
However, this is something that could still change back to those earlier projections from the current projections over the next 24–96 hours.
Watch this space for now and further details will follow on this in the coming days and later in the weekend.
Our detailed week ahead forecast stated the following in reference to this:
"The track of some further low-pressure areas with further heavy rain and unsettled conditions will more than likely continue to barrage across or NEAR our shores and influence our weather for several days after the midweek one has passed through, particularly more so in some parts to the SOUTH and WEST of the country."
"However, AWAY from these areas and regions above, we could also see some BRIGHTER spells in between these developing showers and unsettled conditions."
https://www.facebook.com/100063588901621/posts/1213411307455155/?app=fbl
Have a great Easter weekend everyone!
Details on next week to follow shortly…
Regards,
James Madden, Exacta Weather
With the meteorological summer fast approaching, now would be a good time to revisit some of our (myself/exacta weather's) more historical and correct long-range summer forecasts that also include dated PROOF of the forecast events from several months ahead of occurrence in the chronological images and links provided below:
1. Summer 2011 (coldest in at least two decades)
2. Summer 2012 (wettest in 100 years)
3. Summer 2018 (equally the hottest summer ever)
4. The exact date range for the hottest day ever and/or a super heatwave in 2022
5. The record-breaking June heatwave in 2023
6. September 2023 - the hottest September ever and despite earlier criticism for forecasting such an event from the Met Office (includes dated images/proof of this from several months ahead in provided link below)
https://www.plymouthherald.co.uk/news/plymouth-news/met-office-say-african-plume-8437440
💥💥💥💥💥💥
Additional dated proof and images of all the above in the first three links below:
https://exactaweather.com/the-exacta-weather-story
https://exactaweather.com/our-correct-predictions
https://exactaweather.com/spring-and-summer-2025
I'd really love to see something similar and of similar accuracy for just one ☝️ of these major summer weather events at a similar range from elsewhere... 🤔🤨
Regards to all,
James
Big and expected changes in the overall weather this week as it turns colder and more unsettled with numerous low pressure features + wintry weather...
Some quite big and expected changes on our part are expected through this upcoming week and to match ALL of our short, moderate, and long range subscribers forecast from 90+ days ahead for this exact period.
Initially, cooler conditions will begin to filter in across our shores and with this will come a significant drop in temperatures in comparison to of late and to start this week.
The cooler conditions will also be accompanied by some frequent bands of showers and heavy showers with the odd rumble of thunder, particularly more so in parts to the north, west, and across some southern regions.
Some of these precipitation bands will also have the potential to turn wintry across the highest ground in the far north to start this week.
From around the early hours of Wednesday morning and through much of that day and possibly into early Thursday, the weather will then bring what appears to be a significant area of low pressure that is likely to work northwards across many parts of the country, but particularly more so in some parts of the south and west of the country for some potentially heavy rain showers and strong winds in this same period.
Additionally, it will also be cold enough across some large parts of Scotland and certain parts of northern England for wintry weather and snow across higher ground at the very least and possibly temporarily to some much lower levels during late Wednesday and early Thursday.
The track of some further low-pressure areas with further heavy rain and unsettled conditions will more than likely continue to barrage across or near our shores and influence our weather for several days after the midweek one has passed through (a potentially named storm covered above), particularly more so in some parts to the south and west of the country.
However, away from these areas and regions above, we could also see some brighter spells in between these developing showers and unsettled conditions.
This will then more than likely pave the way for some additional and more potent wintry and cold weather that could even bring wintry precipitation, snow, or temporary snow, at the very least, to some much lower levels for very late in the season during next week and late April and, as covered in our 90+ days ahead spring forecast for these exact same dates and also prior to the correctly forecast mild to warm conditions of late.
https://exactaweather.com/spring-and-summer-2025
90+ days ahead Spring 2025 forecast digitally dated image proves all of this:
https://www.facebook.com/100063588901621/posts/1211316924331260/?app=fbl
James Madden, Exacta Weather
Warm/mild weather is to be gradually replaced by cooler, unsettled, and even wintry weather + a more potent wintry episode with good snow potential for our exact dates of 90+ days ahead...
Other third-party model runs are now showing repeated indicators for a quite potent wintry episode over several days with snow potential even to lower levels for within our EXACT dates of 90+ days ahead that also predicted the previous and current mild to warm weather and high-pressure dominated episodes of late for the exact dates of expectancy and until later in the month for both March and April (originally 90+ days ahead forecast estimation was also for in and around APRIL 22ND for this next particular 'wintry episode' to occur).
https://exactaweather.com/spring-and-summer-2025
Our additional and dated posting from earlier this week also stated all the following in reference to these correct forecast indicators from anything between 75 and 90+ days ahead of the occurrence of both the mild to warm (our forecast never used the word "HOT") and the incoming and past cold weather episodes in March and April for within our exact dates by stating:
"The same long-range subscriber's forecast also correctly covered some repeated MILD to WARM weather conditions from EARLY to mid-APRIL and until LATER in the month and prior to any much COLDER temperatures and possibly WINTRY developments for around a specific date in LATE APRIL (I will provide this nearer the time)."
"Additionally, it will also begin to turn somewhat COOLER and more UNSETTLED during the LATTER part of this WEEKEND and EARLY NEXT WEEK for SOME, and this will have the potential to turn WINTRY across the HIGHEST ground in the far north of Scotland on SUNDAY and pave the way for a potentially POTENT WINTRY BLAST to include other regions just prior to the final third of the month and into and around LATE APRIL."
https://www.facebook.com/100063588901621/posts/1208609387935347/?app=fbl
All of our latest and dated short, moderate and long-range weather forecast updates repeated upon this same wintry weather forecast information with high-confidence from around mid to late April on the basis of our much earlier forecast analysis (people must have thought we were mad during the recent mild to warm weather episodes and several of my earlier posts on this at the same time received only 0–2 likes and minimum exposure).
Additionally, the wintry weather and wintry precipitation (sleet/snow) will begin to return across higher ground in the far north at the very least from tomorrow (Sunday) and into early next week, and prior to something more unusually wintry for late April with some decent snow potential in other regions away from the far north during the final third of April and from in and around April 22, possibly a little earlier.
Our 90+ days-ahead forecast for this same period below predicted the two other exact dates, or near exact dates, of two earlier cold episodes during spring (March and April) and the exact periods of expected but varying high pressure rises in March and April (mild to warm was always our projections for these periods and not HOT) also stated:
"LATE APRIL could also bring one of those more prolonged cold and wintry episodes for the time of the year, particularly around the period of around 22-29 April."
"Obviously, these won't have the same sting as, say, mid or late winter, but nevertheless they could become quite potent and even offer some temporary snow to some lower levels in this exact period that will now only be a handful of weeks away in terms of the start of the meteorological summer (1st June) with mild to warm weather periods prior to this and until LATER in April."
https://exactaweather.com/spring-and-summer-2025
Happy Saturday all.
James Madden, Exacta Weather
Is A Wintry Blast & Colder Air Set To Replace The Mild/Warm & Sunny Weather & When...
Some much colder air and quite wintry runs keep surfacing within some of the various main weather models (a good signal) for in and around our exact dates during late April and from what will be a 90+ day ahead forecast in our long-range effort by then:
https://exactaweather.com/spring-and-summer-2025
The same long-range subscriber's forecast also correctly covered some repeated mild to warm weather conditions from early to mid-April and until LATER in the month and prior to any much colder temperatures and possibly wintry developments for in and around a specific date in late April (I will provide this nearer the time).
Additionally, it will also begin to turn somewhat cooler and more unsettled during the latter part of this weekend and early next week for some, and this will have the potential to turn wintry across the highest ground in the far north of Scotland on Sunday and pave the way for a potentially potent wintry blast to include other regions just prior to the final third of the month and into and around late April.
Further details are to follow on this shortly...
James Madden: Exacta Weather
Largely settled and sunny for many parts for a prolonged period + winter/snow to return around mid-month...
High-pressure-influenced weather will keep the overall theme largely settled with ample periods of sunshine for many through the upcoming week.
This could also bring temperatures to and around the 20C mark in parts of southern England by the end of the working week and prior to some slightly cooler and cloudier weather by the upcoming weekend in parts further south.
Additionally, parts further north could hold on to the sunny conditions for several days longer due to the situation of high pressure influencing our weather and some of these parts further north could also see temperatures in the high teens or possibly 20C in the best of the sunshine over the next several to 10 days.
These expected settled and mild to warm conditions will then pave the way for another wintry blast with some quite decent snow prospects for quite late in the season and April from in and around mid to late April, possibly a little earlier.
Our 75+ days-ahead snapshot of our April subscribers' forecast depicts both expected periods of 1. mild to warm and 2. an early April colder spell (which actually occurred a few days earlier in late March instead) and prior to another expected cold and potentially potent wintry episode much later in April.
https://m.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=1198988545564098&id=100063588901621
Our week-ahead forecast from last weekend via the website and also in a later-dated Facebook post below, stated the following in reference to these expected changes to mild/warm and more settled weather conditions and to match our longer-range forecast projections for this same period in April.
"Things will then become potentially more SETTLED and WARMER once again from the south later in the weekend or early NEXT WEEK."
https://www.facebook.com/100063588901621/posts/1194112726051680/?app=fbl
James Madden, Exacta Weather
UK & Ireland - Final Summer 2025 Report For June–August ☀️⛈️🥵🌪️
Very cold mornings over the next few days are set to be replaced by mild to maybe even warm conditions from tomorrow to Friday... + Will winter return and when?
Quite a cold start out there today, everyone, and this is also likely to intensify somewhat through this evening and during early tomorrow (Wednesday) with temperatures in negative figures for many parts of the country.
However, the influence of high pressure will allow for a gradual rising of temperatures in the southern half of the country in this same Wednesday to Friday period.
Initially, parts of southern and southeast England will see the most significant rises in the high teens or possibly the low 20s between now and Friday, and elsewhere, including parts much further north, will also see temperatures rising into at least the high teens in this same period.
However, low pressure will then begin to influence our overall weather pattern heading into the weekend and early next week, turning things more unsettled in the process.
The cold conditions, rising temperatures, and further unsettled weather by the weekend due to low pressure features were also ALL covered quite concisely in our dated week ahead forecast below:
https://www.facebook.com/100063588901621/posts/1186474043482215/?app=fbl
Additionally, our long-range subscribers weather report that was issued in early January also identified high pressure rises for these exact dates in addition to the recent wintry blast that also brought snow to Cheltenham in March (see dated forecast image below).
https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=1186320686830884
https://exactaweather.com/spring-and-summer-2025
Our forecast expectations also expect another wintry blast to form on and around March 25 or possibly a little earlier or later.
Please note that EARLY APRIL has always been our favoured option for the next wintry blast, but there are some mixed and repeated signals that this could arrive earlier and the next few days model runs to come will certainly offer a better and more reliable output on our incoming weather occurrences on the ground by then.
https://exactaweather.com/spring-and-summer-2025
James Madden: Exacta Weather
Mild To Warm In Places By Midweek + Another Wintry Blast For Around MARCH 25...
The upcoming week will see the influence of high pressure upon our overall weather pattern to bring quite a significant rise in temperatures and some ample periods of varying but pleasantly warm sunshine.
From around Wednesday/Thursday and possibly into Friday, we will see temperatures reaching at least the high teens in parts of the south and, further north, could see temperatures ranging more in the mid to high teens in this same period.
Additionally, we also can't rule out 20C or temperatures in the low 20s in some spots in the best of the sunshine during this period in the afternoons.
However, these types of high-pressure-influenced weather patterns also offer cool to cold conditions in the evenings and ground frosts are possible in some vast areas and before the strong spring sunshine burns through in the day, and also prior to giving way to more unsettled conditions towards the weekend.
This period of more settled and sunny weather will then actually pave the way for another cold and wintry episode and further snow prospects for something our forecasts have repeatedly maintained would occur on multiple occasions deep into spring this year, and the next wintry episode is set to strike in and around MARCH 25 or possibly a little earlier.
Just to reconfirm our dated forecast for this present and upcoming part of this week and into next week, it stated:
"Towards the end of the upcoming week we will also see high pressure starting to return across our shores and change the overall weather pattern back once again after these several days and expected wintry blast conditions on our part for these exact dates in our several week-ahead subscriber's forecast for March and spring 2025."
https://www.facebook.com/100063588901621/posts/1179839670812319/?app=fbl
Additional and earlier updates also doubled down on this and stated:
“Before high pressure returns to settle things down and warm things up from around later on Saturday and into Sunday and beyond this.”
“A word of caution: as we expect further wintry blasts DEEP into spring and April this year.”
Our several-week-ahead spring report (early January) covered these exact dates (17th March onwards) and followed on from the predicted and accurate wintry blast for the exact dates too (see dated PROOF image below).
https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=1186320686830884
James Madden - Exacta Weather
Spring & Summer 2025 Key Weather Dates (Hot Weather, Cold Weather, Storms) + Limited Time Spring Sale!
The rest of the spring and full summer report both cover all of these upcoming weather events from now until August at a reduced price of 9.00 from 18.00 for BOTH reports.
Additionally, you can also save £75 with our 5-year subscription for 75% off for a limited time period (24.99 and usually 99.99).
Spring to winter and mid-March snow showers are set to arrive on cue from tomorrow...
The last of the recent and mild temperatures of late will begin to dissipate from today as things turn much colder for all due to cold winds sourced from the northeast pushing in across our shores.
Additionally, there will also be showers as it becomes more unsettled in parts to the north and east of the country and these are likely to turn wintry and even to snow at some lower levels in these parts through the next week, Monday to Thursday/Friday.
From the early hours of Monday and through to Tuesday will bring a heightened snow risk across some parts of the far north and Scotland and in some parts of northeast England.
Additionally, some of these wintry and snow showers could develop in other parts to the east of England and quite far south in the same Monday to Tuesday period, and some further wintry weather can't be ruled out in some parts as far south as central, southwest and southeast England with variations in overall intensity.
The cold northeast windflow will take more of a stronghold throughout Wednesday and into Thursday and allow widespread wintry and snow showers to develop across some large parts of Scotland, parts of the northern half of England, and some large parts of Ireland.
Weather warnings for snow during this Wednesday to Thursday period are extremely likely, particularly across parts of Scotland, northern and northeastern regions, and potentially to the east of England and some parts of Yorkshire and Wales.
Additionally, some of these snow showers could extend as far south as some central and southern regions in this same midweek period and, despite not really featuring in current third-party projections from elsewhere for this as yet, this is still something that could intensify nearer time.
Towards the end of the upcoming week we will also see high pressure starting to return across our shores and change the overall weather pattern back once again after these several days and expected wintry blast conditions on our part for these exact dates in our several week-ahead subscriber's forecast for March and spring 2025 (see below image).
https://www.facebook.com/100063588901621/posts/1178632384266381/?app=fbl
Additionally, many of our dated updates have also emphasised this further over the past several weeks by accurately pinpointing the dates of on and around March 10 for these expected changes to occur (Tomorrow is March 10).
James Madden: Exacta Weather
High pressure persists with those caveats further north + those expected changes later to something of a wintry flavour around March 10...
High pressure will continue to persist across southern areas through this upcoming week, keeping things largely settled and with some mild to very mild temperatures for many.
However, the further northwards you are could bring more in the way of cloudiness and breezy to windy weather in places in among sunny periods.
Our several-day-ahead forecast also clearly stated the following in reference to this scenario:
"The best and warmest of these daytime temperatures are more likely to reach the mid to high teens in parts of the south, and with parts much further north just about reaching double digits or a little higher in this same period, and elsewhere will be somewhere in the middle of that range."
"Not exactly any warm or hot weather on the horizon, but certainly more settled with, let's say, mildish temperatures for the start of March over the next several days with some quite cool to cold evenings in the same period, and it certainly won't be warmer than Spain, which should expect top temperatures in the low to mid-20s in some of the warmest tourist spots (something we will be nowhere near during the next week)."
https://www.facebook.com/100063588901621/posts/1171965774933042/?app=fbl
However, for those of you who were expecting wall-to-wall sunshine by now or over the weekend from app projections and elsewhere earlier this week, below are our TWO updates from earlier last week and the CAVEATS we also expected to occur from current weather developments (cloudy, breezy and cool weather and cold nights to begin with).
https://www.facebook.com/100063588901621/posts/1170837501712536/?app=fbl
https://www.facebook.com/100063588901621/posts/1174307068032246/?app=fbl
Towards the weekend and the early part of next week (10th March), we will begin to see changes to this overall weather pattern to something cooler and more unsettled from the north of the country that is likely to consist of some wintry weather in places due to these colder conditions and low pressure coinciding (overall extent of this could intensify quite significantly somewhat between now and then).
Additionally, our several-week-ahead subscribers report for spring also covered the dates of on and around 7-12 March for some kind of wintry blast to develop.
https://www.facebook.com/100063588901621/posts/1171951594934460/?app=fbl
https://exactaweather.com/spring-and-summer-2025
An additional and dated update from last week also emphasises this exact same period and dates by stating to expect changes to the current developments to this type of weather pattern for around March 10 or a little earlier.
"Additionally, we will also see a gradual breakdown of these conditions on and around March 10, possibly a little earlier."
https://www.facebook.com/100063588901621/posts/1171965774933042/?app=fbl
James Madden, Exacta Weather
Did you all know that January 2025 came in colder than average for the oldest recorded temperature dataset in the world (Mean CET) and that February 2025 is also set to come in above-average?
https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html
https://exactaweather.com/winter-2024-free-report
Additionally, this is something many others were headline titling as otherwise earlier this month and something OUR winter forecast accurately depicted for BOTH from several months in advance of occurrence).
https://exactaweather.com/winter-2024-free-report
December 2024 also came in well above-average and was one of the TWO options we emphasised upon dependent on the occurrence or not of an earlier Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW).
This forecast has remained UNCHANGED over this several-month period and, as you can see for yourselves, it also identifies several exact periods for winter storms and snow dates, and also always had plenty of options for MILD weather and a mild February despite earlier cold from earlier in the year and expected atmospheric disturbances.
Also, not quite the constant and misleading snow fest or ice age winter projected from elsewhere deliberately on our part (in a nutshell, it makes competition look better and generates more revenue or advertising revenues for certain aspects of the press/journalists).
To conclusively prove this on the part of certain press, has anyone read anything about a triple SSW from myself in the below?
https://exactaweather.com/winter-2024-free-report
But they were OK with putting out misleading headlines on something I never said for this year.
Additionally, I have also stated and covered many times in digitally dated documents, posts, and videos that we fully expect the much colder and snowier winters to return from 2028 and onwards in relation to corresponding and fully expected changes to solar activity around then.
There you have it guys and exactly what I'm up against with each seasonal forecast I put out.
What can't speak and is digitally dated, can't lie!
https://exactaweather.com/winter-2024-free-report
As are the other two even more accurate long-range seasonal forecasts than went before them:
https://exactaweather.com/autumn-2024-free-report
https://exactaweather.com/summer-2024-free-report
That's me for now, guys...
Regards,
James
Some expected mild or very mild weather this week with caveats + winter to return and a heightened snow risk afterwards for the UK & Ireland (around 28th February)...
The upcoming week will see and begin with unsettled and potentially windy weather across Ireland as that low-pressure area from the Atlantic features and turns to snow once again across parts of Scotland and potentially to other parts of northern England as it remains rather cold during this evening and into early Tuesday before turning to rain elsewhere.
From around midweek also looks set to bring a battle between high and low pressure, which is likely to see some cloudy to dull conditions developing for many and potential drizzle or light rain in places from associated weather fronts, particularly across parts of Ireland, Scotland, and some western regions, with the best of any more amicable weather and potential but limited sunshine being reserved for more southern and eastern areas in this same period.
However, this same period is also likely to bring a significant rise in temperatures and some mild to very mild conditions for many and possibly a little more in the way of sunshine for the exact period we covered for in February within our several-month-ahead forecasts and within the following dated link from last week stating:
“Looking further ahead, changes to some less cold or even mild weather can be expected at times later in the month and into March (something our unchanged winter 2024/25 forecast from several months earlier has always maintained).”
https://www.facebook.com/100063588901621/posts/1160068736122746/?app=fbl
By next Friday or Saturday, we could even see temperatures reaching the high teens at the very least in the warmest spots.
Beyond this, and from as early as next Sunday or Monday, we could see things turning more unsettled and gradually cooler once again, and in and around February 28th is likely to see a swift reversion back to quite cold conditions for many and an unusually late wintry blast, which will also bring a heightened snow risk of 2-5 days at the very least for some large parts of the UK and Ireland (also see the same as above and earlier dated link from last week for these dates):
"However, our forecasts also expect and have maintained that the cold and wintry weather and/or wintry blast episodes would persist deep into spring in among some mild or very mild weather periods this year and why, and the next wintry blast potential after the current cool-cold and wintry weather moderates from later next week could come around month-end and for in and around February 28 and prior to further expected and very late wintry blasts in March and April."
https://www.facebook.com/100063588901621/posts/1160068736122746/?app=fbl
https://exactaweather.com/spring-and-summer-2025
James Madden, Exacta Weather
Yesterday (FEBRUARY 15) snow images from southern and eastern England (southeast) + WHEN will the next cold and snow be likely to arrive?
Images courtesy of X…
This was additionally covered in not just one but TWO dated updates during this week for these parts and will continue in some parts to the north and east of England this morning before becoming confined to Scotland and returning from the west of Scotland later, and again around Tuesday with the further risk of forming snow in these parts/far north.
https://www.facebook.com/100063588901621/posts/1158588416270778/?app=fbl
https://www.facebook.com/100063588901621/posts/1161535129309440/?app=fbl
Additionally, the same forecasters who were 'headline titling' NO snow for this week, also 'headline titled' a colder than average February before quickly changing it back to spring arriving early!?
Something our several month ahead forecast covered for both of these types of scenarios in February (cold/mild) and again in our earlier and dated posting below from this week, and again before these last minute changes were quickly applied elsewhere for snow on our EXACT dates once again and then again for the incoming milder weather on our part.
https://www.facebook.com/100063588901621/posts/1160068736122746/?app=fbl
https://www.facebook.com/100063588901621/posts/1158279246301695/?app=fbl
However, remember those EXPECTED changes for later in the month back to snow and cold we have also been reporting upon from in and around 28th February or a little earlier.
"The next wintry blast and snow potential after the current cool-cold and wintry weather moderates from later next week could come around month end and for in and around February 28 and prior to further expected and very late wintry blasts at times in March and April (April one is quite HIGH confidence)."
https://www.facebook.com/100063588901621/posts/1160108599452093/?app=fbl
Happy Sunday, everyone!
James Madden, Exacta Weather
Over the past several weeks, our forecasts have seen some major errors in regard to overall snow expectations and is something we (myself/Exacta) have openly admitted to.
Unfortunately, this is part and parcel of weather forecasting and reporting upon the weather and something I am not all that used to after a decent run of getting quite a lot consistently right from quite far ahead over a prolonged time period in recent years and for a multitude of some of the biggest weather events in our history since 2009 and 2010 with conclusive and dated proof of this in the below.
https://exactaweather.com/our-correct-predictions
Many others will be in their absolute element at present with the mainly damp squib of snow events that they called more accurately than myself on this occasion.
However, the weather prediction game is a results scenario and sometimes they will go the right way, and then again sometimes not, and I'm not going to beat myself up over it and lose any sleep as in previous years and months when this has occurred.
At the end of the day it is what it is, and whilst some others seem to oddly revel in the reduced snow prospects of late for obvious reasons, we must also be fair and honest and remember the several heat spikes we predicted for the exact dates throughout last summer and autumn that these same forecasters ruled out and then came around to our idea many days later on multiple occasions, the exact dates of multiple storms and their overall scale, and the very cold and snowy end to November that was never meant to happen along with the correct snow dates before any other forecasters worldwide.
https://exactaweather.com/spring-and-summer-2025
https://exactaweather.com/autumn-and-winter-2024%2F25
Surely these correct and accurate predictions don't count for absolutely nothing and I will therefore concentrate and remember these correct predictions often from in the face of adversity, and use my less accurate ones to learn from and hopefully improve my overall methodology.
https://exactaweather.com/our-correct-predictions
In essence it is a hazard of the role and something I will openly admit to (forecast errors and more info in the link below) but I certainly won't be beating myself up over it or sulking about it, and we move onwards and upwards, and there aren't many forecasters who have that good of a weather prediction history with proof that they can openly and honestly own up to and promote their errors whilst moving on to add to their collection of forecasting accolades that have been more right than anything elsewhere not only recently but historically too.
https://exactaweather.com/the-exacta-weather-story
That’s me for now guys!
Thanks to all those regulars who continue to support me and remember these facts. 😘
Regards,
James Madden, Exacta Weather
Current snow expectations and projections for the weekend + Spring 2025/March & April + are any more cold spells and wintry episodes due this year and when?
The models are now incorporating an area of precipitation that is likely to turn wintry or to snow in places through this weekend.
This is likely to happen from the early hours of Saturday (February 15) across certain parts of the far north and west of the country, as these unsettled conditions coincide with colder conditions to deliver what could be a fairly decent snow event for Scotland throughout Saturday and the exact dates previously opted for that could also extend into some other parts of northern and northeast England on present indicators.
Throughout Sunday we could also see an extension of these snow showers in these parts and potentially in some other parts to the east of the country and some other parts of northern and central England and Yorkshire before petering out later.
Unfortunately, the current projections have downgraded the earlier and quite widespread snow projections from this Saturday to what I have covered above, and unless we see some last minute intensifications, only those parts I have covered will be at risk of any snow and/or transient snow in this period.
However, with the way things have gone of late, I certainly wouldn't be banking on any last-minute intensifications of this scenario, although still entirely possible at this stage, particularly with the colder conditions that are expected to coincide with these weather developments during this weekend.
Looking further ahead, changes to some less cold or even mild weather can be expected at times later in the month and into March (something our unchanged winter 2024/25 forecast from several months earlier has always maintained).
However, our forecasts also expect and have maintained that the cold and wintry weather and/or wintry blast episodes would persist deep into spring in among some mild or very mild weather periods this year and why, and the next wintry blast potential after the current cool-cold and wintry weather moderates from later next week could come around month end and for in and around February 28 and prior to further expected and very late wintry blasts in March and April (April one is quite HIGH confidence).
James Madden, Exacta Weather
(13/02/2025)
Further details are to follow on this shortly and within the week-ahead weather update in the coming days...
Further enhanced details are also available in our detailed several-page reports for spring and summer 2025 below:
Despite overnight bringing some wintry showers to parts of England and Wales to begin with, they never really amounted to much overall and were simply overcome by not cold enough temperatures.
Some passing rain bands could still turn wintry in certain places throughout today, but in essence we really needed that easterly in among our shores for several days prior to a sudden and little later change to these series of storms and the widespread snow events that would have followed for it to be more memorable for such factors.
Even though I can honestly claim some success with the logistics and timings of the recent named storms before many others, unfortunately and also honestly, my efforts have failed in their overall expectations on this occasion for snow and widespread snow.
If I'm being honest, I came into this last week very excited and confident on the overall snow prospects, particularly after the unusual and snowy second half of November cold that was never meant to happen from elsewhere, and the further snow and additional snow dates arriving on time to match my earlier long-range efforts at times in December and January.
The exact same methodology that managed to identify all of these previous correct weather events on my part was also applied here, and I'm more than happy to admit and try and learn from such forecasting errors.
Additionally, it also tells me that my methodology certainly isn't foolproof or as tight as I thought it was entering this last few weeks, but I can also admit it and take it on the chin with such a ratio of past and recent weather events and my long-range reports that more often than not speak for themselves.
However, how certain individuals continue to use my work including certain aspects of the media has got the better of me and frustrated me a lot of late and is something I need to make decisions on in going forward to totally eradicate and not impact upon my concentration levels.
I also really don't have the energy to be dealing with such things no more or with those who think they have an entitlement to just take my work, and it is running me down personally and needs reviewing, as I've also had several off days in recent weeks due to recurring illness (see current medication image in comments) and no doubt due to the overall stress of this situation I'm desperate to try and stop.
I'm also not making excuses here or looking for sympathy but being more honest on my current situation, and I'm even as honest to say that the forecast errors were made and stuck to by myself for this last week before I started to struggle with illness due to my already lowered immune system from my IBD medication, for which I have also honestly provided a dated image of my current medication in the comments section below.
Future forecast updates announcement and weather reports to follow shortly...
Regards and speak soon,
James (27/01/2025)
UK & Ireland Week Ahead Weather Update + More Winter Storms & Heavy Snow In Places Before Some Much Quieter Weather...
The next wave of unsettled and stormy weather will start to approach from the far south of the UK and Ireland once again during this evening and into the early hours of tomorrow.
Initially this will bring rain and moderate to strong winds across the far southwest and across southern England and Ireland before spreading northwards across all other areas during tomorrow.
However, as this rain and unsettled conditions push northwards from the early hours of Monday, they will begin to turn wintry in nature and there is a good risk of some moderate to heavy and settling snow in this period in some parts of Wales to begin with and with the possibility of some less intense and transient snow in parts of eastern and western coastal areas in Ireland and southern Ireland.
From around 2AM Monday until around 9AM will then bring a significantly heightened risk for some quite heavy and settling snow across some parts of central and northern England, particularly but not restricted to some large parts of northern and northwest England and some parts of central England towards Birmingham or Nottingham during the early hours before transferring to the north and Scotland later.
The risk of further snow will continue as the next stormy bout passes through tomorrow afternoon and evening in some parts of northwest and northern England and Wales.
After a temporarily quieter run of weather, we will begin to see another stormy feature approaching from the south during Wednesday evening and into Thursday and this will initially bring further rain and strong winds to many parts of southern England and some central areas at first, before turning to potentially moderate to heavy snow during Wednesday evening and Thursday in these same localities (southern and central England) and some parts of Wales (may extend further north yet).
The good news it that this will then pave the way for some much more settled and better weather afterwards over a potentially prolonged time period, but we do expect more winter storms and the snow to return at certain points, particularly heading into spring and deep spring on our current forecasting projections.
However, around Friday 31st January could also bring some last and widely distributed snow showers across the north (at least moderate confidence and one to watch for)…
https://exactaweather.com/spring-and-summer-2025
Our dated week ahead forecast re-covered the earlier named storm we had been previously covering and the next pending one by stating:
"The 2 x expected winter storms and/or named storms (significant low-pressure areas) will then make their approach around Friday and again on Sunday/Monday, bringing with them strong to exceptionally strong winds at times and rain to begin with."
"However, it will also be cold enough at particular times during this Friday-to-Sunday/Monday period for widespread and disruptive snow showers to develop across large parts of the UK and Ireland in among these windy and stormy conditions."
https://www.facebook.com/100063588901621/posts/1141949544601332/?app=fbl
“These strong winds could also become very strong and reach over AT LEAST 70-90 MPH in some of the worst hit regions during Friday, particularly in some western parts of the country, Scotland, and across parts of Northern Ireland.”
https://www.facebook.com/100063588901621/posts/1142982827831337/?app=fbl
Another earlier update stated the following about next week:
"However, the next series of the Atlantic weather influences after this from Monday to Wednesday of next week will arrive and coincide and mix with some much cooler air at times in this same period to bring further snow possibilities well into next week."
https://www.facebook.com/100063588901621/posts/1144586867670933/?app=fbl
Yesterday's update followed this up further by also stating:
"This will then pave the way for some similar weather scenarios to develop around the middle of next week but with more of a snow risk, including more southern regions quite far south."
https://www.facebook.com/100063588901621/posts/1145429247586695/?app=fbl
I know most people are all for the snow prospects, but I have also covered these expected winter storms and the overall scale in other areas on my part quite well...
Again, stay safe and take care!
https://exactaweather.com/uk-short-range-weather
James Madden: Exacta Weather
26/01/2025
The following two updates and videos from much earlier last year (early October 2024) explained why we are seeing so many storms (way above-average) and why they were expected to continue in the long-term autumn and winter periods.
And several major winter storms later with more to come...
Plus our dated news article covering this from several years earlier >>>
https://vm.tiktok.com/ZGdAWPLuc/
