High pressure persists with those caveats further north + those expected changes later to something of a wintry flavour around March 10...
High pressure will continue to persist across southern areas through this upcoming week, keeping things largely settled and with some mild to very mild temperatures for many.
However, the further northwards you are could bring more in the way of cloudiness and breezy to windy weather in places in among sunny periods.
Our several-day-ahead forecast also clearly stated the following in reference to this scenario:
"The best and warmest of these daytime temperatures are more likely to reach the mid to high teens in parts of the south, and with parts much further north just about reaching double digits or a little higher in this same period, and elsewhere will be somewhere in the middle of that range."
"Not exactly any warm or hot weather on the horizon, but certainly more settled with, let's say, mildish temperatures for the start of March over the next several days with some quite cool to cold evenings in the same period, and it certainly won't be warmer than Spain, which should expect top temperatures in the low to mid-20s in some of the warmest tourist spots (something we will be nowhere near during the next week)."
https://www.facebook.com/100063588901621/posts/1171965774933042/?app=fbl
However, for those of you who were expecting wall-to-wall sunshine by now or over the weekend from app projections and elsewhere earlier this week, below are our TWO updates from earlier last week and the CAVEATS we also expected to occur from current weather developments (cloudy, breezy and cool weather and cold nights to begin with).
https://www.facebook.com/100063588901621/posts/1170837501712536/?app=fbl
https://www.facebook.com/100063588901621/posts/1174307068032246/?app=fbl
Towards the weekend and the early part of next week (10th March), we will begin to see changes to this overall weather pattern to something cooler and more unsettled from the north of the country that is likely to consist of some wintry weather in places due to these colder conditions and low pressure coinciding (overall extent of this could intensify quite significantly somewhat between now and then).
Additionally, our several-week-ahead subscribers report for spring also covered the dates of on and around 7-12 March for some kind of wintry blast to develop.
https://www.facebook.com/100063588901621/posts/1171951594934460/?app=fbl
https://exactaweather.com/spring-and-summer-2025
An additional and dated update from last week also emphasises this exact same period and dates by stating to expect changes to the current developments to this type of weather pattern for around March 10 or a little earlier.
"Additionally, we will also see a gradual breakdown of these conditions on and around March 10, possibly a little earlier."
https://www.facebook.com/100063588901621/posts/1171965774933042/?app=fbl
James Madden, Exacta Weather
More settled & sunny but cold too + for how long? + some important changes…
Our earlier update for the upcoming settled weather over the next several days (not warmer than Spain) stated:
"Beyond this, we had initial expectations for another stormy period to develop on and around Sunday and some wintry weather on Friday that now seems to have been dropped by the models for something they were also initially quite keen on only recently."
"We can therefore expect more in the way of some settled weather with variations from region to region in terms of sunshine on current projections."
"However, the caveats could be the limited sunshine due to cloudiness or persistent cloud cover and some showers and breezy weather will still exist, particularly more so in some parts to the north and west, with some overnight frosts and quite cool or cold overnight conditions persisting in places over the next several days."
Additionally, we will now see several days of much more settled weather and sunshine with the above and below caveats, particularly to begin with, and with the cool to cold overnight conditions and frosts.
The best and warmest of these daytime temperatures are more likely to reach the mid to high teens in parts of the south, and with parts much further north just about reaching double digits or a little higher in this same period, and elsewhere will be somewhere in the middle of that range.
Not exactly anything warm or hot weather on the horizon, but certainly more settled with, let's say, mildish temperatures for the start of March over the next several days with some quite cool to cold evenings in the same period, and it certainly won't be warmer than Spain, which should expect top temperatures in the low to mid-20s in some of the warmest tourist spots (something we will be nowhere near during the next week).
Additionally, we will also see a gradual breakdown of these conditions in and around March 10, possibly a little earlier.
Further details are to follow, enhanced forecast details and March reports, and up to summer 2025 are available below:
https://exactaweather.com/spring-and-summer-2025
Unfortunately, our posts and page are being heavily restricted for simply sharing 'links of relevance' with our own followers!? (See comments section images.)
And that just about makes up my mind on this one and is something I’ve been giving deep thought to for a while, as I will explain.
From now on, priority will be given to the decently trafficked website and website pages below, which have ranked as one of the top-performing websites on GoDaddy since its return in April 2024.
https://exactaweather.com/uk-short-range-weather
https://exactaweather.com/uk-long-range-weather
There will also be a new and small paywall option via our website in the future for our normally posted and detailed updates here that will actually stay as normal (posts, details, and frequency) but essentially be made available somewhat earlier from behind the small paywall and thus prevent certain entitled-thinking news companies and journalists from stealing my work going forward.
Additionally, and importantly, we will also be offering a totally FREE option for all our loyal followers on here to generate them a username and password for absolutely FREE, as I personally don't see why our most loyal and long-term followers should lose out or have to pay anything for what should really be public domain information and only have to be in place due to clear and repeated misuse of my forecast work from elsewhere.
Just to reaffirm that I will still post on here and when my current page restrictions are lifted, but priority will now always be given to the website and certain forecast information that will also be made available significantly earlier via this route (1-3 days).
Additionally, this is the route and personal choice that I've decided to take going forward, and I am more than clear about it in my mind, and if anyone feels a totally free option to our future website services and for totally free on here (Facebook) isn't a particularly good deal, then in the nicest way possible, you're always welcome to unsubscribe from the page and go elsewhere for future heatwave, storm, and snow dates that we have maintained a very good but not perfect record for within recent years and decades.
Original and dated posting of this below:
https://exactaweather.com/our-correct-predictions
https://exactaweather.com/the-exacta-weather-story
Regards,
James Madden, Exacta Weather
More Settled After The Stormy & Unsettled Weather Or Not?
After today's unsettled and expected stormy weather passes through and into this evening (see dated week-ahead report below), there will be an additional risk of rain turning to snow during the colder temperatures for this evening, particularly, across some parts of Scotland, northern and northeast England, and potentially to some parts of Yorkshire and central regions.
https://www.facebook.com/100063588901621/posts/1168294511966835/?app=fbl
Beyond this, we had initial expectations for another stormy period to develop on and around Sunday and some wintry weather on Friday that now seems to have been dropped by the models for something they were also initially quite keen on only recently.
We can therefore expect more in the way of some settled weather with variations from region to region in terms of sunshine on current projections.
However, the caveats could be the limited sunshine due to cloudiness or persistent cloud cover and some showers and breezy weather will still exist, particularly more so in some parts to the north and west, with some overnight frosts and quite cool or cold overnight conditions persisting in places over the next several days.
Further details on March to May are also available for the UK and Ireland within a several-page report below:
https://exactaweather.com/spring-and-summer-2025
James Madden, Exacta Weather
https://www.facebook.com/100063588901621/posts/1168294511966835/?app=fbl
Did you all know that January 2025 came in colder than average for the oldest recorded temperature dataset in the world (Mean CET) and that February 2025 is also set to come in above-average?
https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html
https://exactaweather.com/winter-2024-free-report
Additionally, this is something many others were headline titling as otherwise earlier this month and something OUR winter forecast accurately depicted for BOTH from several months in advance of occurrence).
https://exactaweather.com/winter-2024-free-report
December 2024 also came in well above-average and was one of the TWO options we emphasised upon dependent on the occurrence or not of an earlier Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW).
This forecast has remained UNCHANGED over this several-month period and, as you can see for yourselves, it also identifies several exact periods for winter storms and snow dates, and also always had plenty of options for MILD weather and a mild February despite earlier cold from earlier in the year and expected atmospheric disturbances.
Also, not quite the constant and misleading snow fest or ice age winter projected from elsewhere deliberately on our part (in a nutshell, it makes competition look better and generates more revenue or advertising revenues for certain aspects of the press/journalists).
To conclusively prove this on the part of certain press, has anyone read anything about a triple SSW from myself in the below?
https://exactaweather.com/winter-2024-free-report
But they were OK with putting out misleading headlines on something I never said for this year.
Additionally, I have also stated and covered many times in digitally dated documents, posts, and videos that we fully expect the much colder and snowier winters to return from 2028 and onwards in relation to corresponding and fully expected changes to solar activity around then.
There you have it guys and exactly what I'm up against with each seasonal forecast I put out.
What can't speak and is digitally dated, can't lie!
https://exactaweather.com/winter-2024-free-report
As are the other two even more accurate long-range seasonal forecasts than went before them:
https://exactaweather.com/autumn-2024-free-report
https://exactaweather.com/summer-2024-free-report
That's me for now, guys...
Regards,
James
Staying unsettled with some brighter spells but also turning colder and more wintry from midweek...
The upcoming week will be rather unsettled with periods of moderate to strong winds and potentially moderate to heavy showers as stormy features from the Atlantic near or influence weather on our shores.
However, in between, these Atlantic weather features could offer some respite and somewhat better or brighter weather temporarily.
Additionally, from around midweek will also see it turning cool to colder and bring the heightened risk of rain turning wintry or to snow on these same dates.
Various and potentially named winter storms, low-pressure areas, and associated weather fronts will continue to bring the risk of wintry weather and snow across the northern half of the country, at the very least for and around Wednesday, and potentially to parts of Wales and Northern Ireland.
For in and around late Friday (28th) and into Saturday will also bring a further heightened risk of snow and wintry weather across the northern half of the country once again.
However, from the latter part of around next weekend (Sunday) and into much of early March are likely to offer a significantly heightened period for general cool to cold weather for many with further snow prospects and, in some parts, much further south than normal.
Additionally, the earlier wintry weather and snow potential across the northern half of the country from around Wednesday and from late Friday and into next weekend including Sunday, could become more extensive within the main third-party model projections over the coming days to what they are presently showing for overall snow opportunities.
Our many repeated and dated forecast updates of the last several weeks also repeat the dates of on and around 28th February and into early March or possibly a little earlier, for the next cool-down and snow prospects to start returning and after the expected milder weather of late.
Happy Sunday, all.
James Madden: Exacta Weather
Some expected mild or very mild weather this week with caveats + winter to return and a heightened snow risk afterwards for the UK & Ireland (around 28th February)...
The upcoming week will see and begin with unsettled and potentially windy weather across Ireland as that low-pressure area from the Atlantic features and turns to snow once again across parts of Scotland and potentially to other parts of northern England as it remains rather cold during this evening and into early Tuesday before turning to rain elsewhere.
From around midweek also looks set to bring a battle between high and low pressure, which is likely to see some cloudy to dull conditions developing for many and potential drizzle or light rain in places from associated weather fronts, particularly across parts of Ireland, Scotland, and some western regions, with the best of any more amicable weather and potential but limited sunshine being reserved for more southern and eastern areas in this same period.
However, this same period is also likely to bring a significant rise in temperatures and some mild to very mild conditions for many and possibly a little more in the way of sunshine for the exact period we covered for in February within our several-month-ahead forecasts and within the following dated link from last week stating:
“Looking further ahead, changes to some less cold or even mild weather can be expected at times later in the month and into March (something our unchanged winter 2024/25 forecast from several months earlier has always maintained).”
https://www.facebook.com/100063588901621/posts/1160068736122746/?app=fbl
By next Friday or Saturday, we could even see temperatures reaching the high teens at the very least in the warmest spots.
Beyond this, and from as early as next Sunday or Monday, we could see things turning more unsettled and gradually cooler once again, and in and around February 28th is likely to see a swift reversion back to quite cold conditions for many and an unusually late wintry blast, which will also bring a heightened snow risk of 2-5 days at the very least for some large parts of the UK and Ireland (also see the same as above and earlier dated link from last week for these dates):
"However, our forecasts also expect and have maintained that the cold and wintry weather and/or wintry blast episodes would persist deep into spring in among some mild or very mild weather periods this year and why, and the next wintry blast potential after the current cool-cold and wintry weather moderates from later next week could come around month-end and for in and around February 28 and prior to further expected and very late wintry blasts in March and April."
https://www.facebook.com/100063588901621/posts/1160068736122746/?app=fbl
https://exactaweather.com/spring-and-summer-2025
James Madden, Exacta Weather
Yesterday (FEBRUARY 15) snow images from southern and eastern England (southeast) + WHEN will the next cold and snow be likely to arrive?
Images courtesy of X…
This was additionally covered in not just one but TWO dated updates during this week for these parts and will continue in some parts to the north and east of England this morning before becoming confined to Scotland and returning from the west of Scotland later, and again around Tuesday with the further risk of forming snow in these parts/far north.
https://www.facebook.com/100063588901621/posts/1158588416270778/?app=fbl
https://www.facebook.com/100063588901621/posts/1161535129309440/?app=fbl
Additionally, the same forecasters who were 'headline titling' NO snow for this week, also 'headline titled' a colder than average February before quickly changing it back to spring arriving early!?
Something our several month ahead forecast covered for both of these types of scenarios in February (cold/mild) and again in our earlier and dated posting below from this week, and again before these last minute changes were quickly applied elsewhere for snow on our EXACT dates once again and then again for the incoming milder weather on our part.
https://www.facebook.com/100063588901621/posts/1160068736122746/?app=fbl
https://www.facebook.com/100063588901621/posts/1158279246301695/?app=fbl
However, remember those EXPECTED changes for later in the month back to snow and cold we have also been reporting upon from in and around 28th February or a little earlier.
"The next wintry blast and snow potential after the current cool-cold and wintry weather moderates from later next week could come around month end and for in and around February 28 and prior to further expected and very late wintry blasts at times in March and April (April one is quite HIGH confidence)."
https://www.facebook.com/100063588901621/posts/1160108599452093/?app=fbl
Happy Sunday, everyone!
James Madden, Exacta Weather
Over the past several weeks, our forecasts have seen some major errors in regard to overall snow expectations and is something we (myself/Exacta) have openly admitted to.
Unfortunately, this is part and parcel of weather forecasting and reporting upon the weather and something I am not all that used to after a decent run of getting quite a lot consistently right from quite far ahead over a prolonged time period in recent years and for a multitude of some of the biggest weather events in our history since 2009 and 2010 with conclusive and dated proof of this in the below.
https://exactaweather.com/our-correct-predictions
Many others will be in their absolute element at present with the mainly damp squib of snow events that they called more accurately than myself on this occasion.
However, the weather prediction game is a results scenario and sometimes they will go the right way, and then again sometimes not, and I'm not going to beat myself up over it and lose any sleep as in previous years and months when this has occurred.
At the end of the day it is what it is, and whilst some others seem to oddly revel in the reduced snow prospects of late for obvious reasons, we must also be fair and honest and remember the several heat spikes we predicted for the exact dates throughout last summer and autumn that these same forecasters ruled out and then came around to our idea many days later on multiple occasions, the exact dates of multiple storms and their overall scale, and the very cold and snowy end to November that was never meant to happen along with the correct snow dates before any other forecasters worldwide.
https://exactaweather.com/spring-and-summer-2025
https://exactaweather.com/autumn-and-winter-2024%2F25
Surely these correct and accurate predictions don't count for absolutely nothing and I will therefore concentrate and remember these correct predictions often from in the face of adversity, and use my less accurate ones to learn from and hopefully improve my overall methodology.
https://exactaweather.com/our-correct-predictions
In essence it is a hazard of the role and something I will openly admit to (forecast errors and more info in the link below) but I certainly won't be beating myself up over it or sulking about it, and we move onwards and upwards, and there aren't many forecasters who have that good of a weather prediction history with proof that they can openly and honestly own up to and promote their errors whilst moving on to add to their collection of forecasting accolades that have been more right than anything elsewhere not only recently but historically too.
https://exactaweather.com/the-exacta-weather-story
That’s me for now guys!
Thanks to all those regulars who continue to support me and remember these facts. 😘
Regards,
James Madden, Exacta Weather
Current snow expectations and projections for the weekend + Spring 2025/March & April + are any more cold spells and wintry episodes due this year and when?
The models are now incorporating an area of precipitation that is likely to turn wintry or to snow in places through this weekend.
This is likely to happen from the early hours of Saturday (February 15) across certain parts of the far north and west of the country, as these unsettled conditions coincide with colder conditions to deliver what could be a fairly decent snow event for Scotland throughout Saturday and the exact dates previously opted for that could also extend into some other parts of northern and northeast England on present indicators.
Throughout Sunday we could also see an extension of these snow showers in these parts and potentially in some other parts to the east of the country and some other parts of northern and central England and Yorkshire before petering out later.
Unfortunately, the current projections have downgraded the earlier and quite widespread snow projections from this Saturday to what I have covered above, and unless we see some last minute intensifications, only those parts I have covered will be at risk of any snow and/or transient snow in this period.
However, with the way things have gone of late, I certainly wouldn't be banking on any last-minute intensifications of this scenario, although still entirely possible at this stage, particularly with the colder conditions that are expected to coincide with these weather developments during this weekend.
Looking further ahead, changes to some less cold or even mild weather can be expected at times later in the month and into March (something our unchanged winter 2024/25 forecast from several months earlier has always maintained).
However, our forecasts also expect and have maintained that the cold and wintry weather and/or wintry blast episodes would persist deep into spring in among some mild or very mild weather periods this year and why, and the next wintry blast potential after the current cool-cold and wintry weather moderates from later next week could come around month end and for in and around February 28 and prior to further expected and very late wintry blasts in March and April (April one is quite HIGH confidence).
James Madden, Exacta Weather
(13/02/2025)
Further details are to follow on this shortly and within the week-ahead weather update in the coming days...
Further enhanced details are also available in our detailed several-page reports for spring and summer 2025 below:
Will The Easterly Bring Snow This Week?
The cold easterly flow that is upon us and is likely to bring very cold temperatutres of around -8 to -10C in the coldest spots at a time that we opted for during the second half of January and/or early February from several months ahead (slightly out in timing) has produced minimal snow as of yet (there has been some but not as expected).
However, our projections from earlier last week also stated that around mid-month would be the time for the high risk and high impact type events for snow below.
https://www.facebook.com/100063588901621/posts/1153915153404771/?app=fbl
The strongish signals are still there for something biggish and high impact for snow to strike later this week or on them exact quoted dates of around February 15...
We just need to wait on the others and the third-party models to hopefully strengthen up on this over the next few days and for this one to deliver.
There also isn't much point to an already repeated week ahead forecast and to repeat my snow forecast expectations for these dates (be them right or wrong) when I am already prepccupied with several other things at the minute too.
More to follow on this in the coming days...
James Madden, Exacta Weather
Monday 10/02/2025
Snow and ice risk heightens significantly for many southern areas from late tomorrow and into Saturday and then again from Sunday and into Monday + where else to expect snow…
The latest and now repeated outputs intensify that area of expected snow across southern regions and towards the capital from tomorrow afternoon/evening and into Saturday, including parts now as far south out as southwest England and Wales and with further snow showers as far north as northeast England and to the east of Scotland in the same period.
Something we have been conveying in multiple and repeated snow updates throughout this week for these locations and in yesterday's very detailed and early snow warning update before anything else available elsewhere.
https://www.facebook.com/100063588901621/posts/1153915153404771/?app=fbl
Additional and sporadic snow showers could also pop up literally anywhere in this same period, and the latest and repeated outputs also intensify the snow potential on late Sunday and into Monday across parts of southeast England to begin with, before becoming more extensive across other southern regions and southwest England, central regions, Wales, northern and northeast and to the east of England and Scotland, and some less intense snow to parts of the south, east, and north of Ireland.
This also matches our several month-ahead subscribers winter report for this type of exact weather event to develop for the dates of the second half of January and/or into early February because of an earlier and expected major disturbance in the upper atmosphere.
Enjoy, everyone but also take care of the obvious hazards that come with cold weather and SNOW! (something the others tried to play down for obvious reasons and half-called for mid-February but can't or won't be able to sustain for much longer)
James Madden, Exacta Weather
The big snow risk expectantly intensifies for LATER THIS WEEK (Early Feb) as those cold easterly winds begin to arrive earlier than the mid-February indicators from elsewhere & why?
The snow risk intensifies further across southern and eastern areas later this week and as early as Friday day/evening and Saturday, and for other regions further inland including parts of central, northern and northeast England, in addition to large parts of Scotland, Wales and Ireland and throughout much of next week.
Our earlier week-ahead forecast and snow update from several days earlier stated the following in reference to this:
"Towards the end of the working week and into next weekend we will see more of an Easterly and/or northerly/NE influence starting to take shape across our shores to deliver at least a several day cold and very snowy period for our exact quoted and much earlier dates starting around "February 8-15"."
“At first, they could be more hit-and-miss snow showers across eastern and southern parts of the country before becoming more intense in nature and more widespread during the above quoted period.”
https://www.facebook.com/100063588901621/posts/1151605063635780/?app=fbl
Additionally, many other weather sources have initially and recently promoted this for mid-February, but Friday and into this weekend is when the snow and snow warnings will begin for and this is still 'early February'.
There is a reason for this and it is largely down to other third-party model projections recently hinting at this for around these mid-February dates and additionally because most of these other weather sources are well aware that we predicted “a potentially memorable weather event” of this type due to earlier and now confirmed “atmospheric disturbances” and how they would alter our weather pattern for in and around the second half of January and early February from several months in advance.
Another earlier forecast update on these exact types of developments and the then current model projections suggested otherwise for a start date on this, and we instead strongly indicated a start date of around 8th February with "increasingly increasing high confidence" from my initial moderate levels of expectation than anything on offer at the time from elsewhere.
"Beyond this, further into February 8-15, could then bring that cold easterly and/or northerly (possible combination of the two NE at times) and multiple widespread snow events for large parts of the country that we have just missed out on recently and over several days at the very least."
"Overall confidence is currently moderate but increasingly increasing to much higher levels for these expected weather developments to bring widespread snow and notable cold weather to the UK and Ireland from these expected to develop weather scenarios, with some also increasing signals from elsewhere for similar dates or a little later in the above quoted period around early to mid-February."
https://www.facebook.com/100063588901621/posts/1149245563871730/?app=fbl
Further snow updates are to follow on this in the coming days…
James Madden, Exacta Weather
Latest Weather Update/February + Fog/Frost + Could The Beast Be Awakening Anytime Soon And/Or A Cold Northerly & Some Proper Snow?
The largely much more settled weather and even sunny spells will continue over the next several days from high pressure influenced weather continuing into the weekend and beyond.
A "prolonged" and more settled period of much "quieter" weather was covered for these dates and beyond this in our dated week ahead forecast below from several days earlier, and as the more unsettled and expected stormy weather of late moves away from our shores.
https://www.facebook.com/100063588901621/posts/1146633717466248/?app=fbl
Additionally, the expected unsettled weather across southern areas during midweek resulted in more thundery rain and showers than any wintry weather or snow on our part and to follow the trend with the more recent winter storms in terms of snow production and it not being cold enough at these particular times, although there could have been some very brief wintry weather or snow in certain parts of southwest England if anyone was up late enough to catch this.
However, there are some final bands of precipitation and unsettled weather that could turn wintry and to snow in parts of Scotland, northern England, some certain parts of central England, and potentially to the East of England, Wales, and parts of Northern Ireland during Thursday evening and Friday morning.
This is also something else that was additionally covered in our dated week-ahead forecast for these exact dates.
https://www.facebook.com/100063588901621/posts/1146633717466248/?app=fbl
Beyond this and into next week and early February will see that 'prolonged' and expected period of 'largely settled' weather taking shape for many parts of the country, but it will result in some quite cool to cold temperatures with some developing widespread frosts in the evenings and even more of those widespread and dense fog patches at times across large parts of the country.
Beyond this, further and for in and around February 8-15, could then bring that cold easterly and/or northerly (possible combination of the two NE at times) and multiple widespread snow events for large parts of the country that we just missed out on recently and over several days at the very least.
Overall confidence is currently moderate and increasingly increasing to much higher levels for these expected weather developments to bring widespread snow and notable cold weather to the UK and Ireland from these expected to develop weather scenarios, with some also increasing signals from elsewhere for similar dates or a little bit later in the above quoted period around early to mid-February.
Additionally, our further ahead reports also cover why we expect these types of weather patterns to return at times deep into spring:
https://exactaweather.com/spring-and-summer-2025
Can I also just say a big thank you to all of you who took the time out to comment and react to my most recent post below with such heartfelt messages and comments (they mean a lot), and I have taken the last several days to rest and shut off from everything before completing and analysing my previous long-range forecast details and my latest forecast output and analysis for this current update fully refreshed and sufficiently rested.
https://www.facebook.com/100063588901621/posts/1147000327429587/?app=fbl
Unfortunately, the current antibiotics have not worked for me, and they are likely to change to something much stronger during my next appointment in the coming days.
Additionally, some of the updates could therefore be less frequent than normal, as the medication I am likely to return to is much stronger and more draining but likely to do the job better (I refused this initially and recently to prevent this from happening) hence such a detailed weather update here and a relaxed and calm approach to what is expected from myself for further ahead and the final part of this winter.
Furthermore, a thankful period of more settled and high-confidence quieter weather from the weather gods and on my part at a much-needed time is welcomed and really doesn't need to be repeatedly repeated by myself to you all, and which is also increasingly likely (high-pressure rises) to effectively nudge in a very cold and worthwhile snowy period across our shores later in February.
Regards,
James Madden: Exacta Weather
30/01/2025
Despite overnight bringing some wintry showers to parts of England and Wales to begin with, they never really amounted to much overall and were simply overcome by not cold enough temperatures.
Some passing rain bands could still turn wintry in certain places throughout today, but in essence we really needed that easterly in among our shores for several days prior to a sudden and little later change to these series of storms and the widespread snow events that would have followed for it to be more memorable for such factors.
Even though I can honestly claim some success with the logistics and timings of the recent named storms before many others, unfortunately and also honestly, my efforts have failed in their overall expectations on this occasion for snow and widespread snow.
If I'm being honest, I came into this last week very excited and confident on the overall snow prospects, particularly after the unusual and snowy second half of November cold that was never meant to happen from elsewhere, and the further snow and additional snow dates arriving on time to match my earlier long-range efforts at times in December and January.
The exact same methodology that managed to identify all of these previous correct weather events on my part was also applied here, and I'm more than happy to admit and try and learn from such forecasting errors.
Additionally, it also tells me that my methodology certainly isn't foolproof or as tight as I thought it was entering this last few weeks, but I can also admit it and take it on the chin with such a ratio of past and recent weather events and my long-range reports that more often than not speak for themselves.
However, how certain individuals continue to use my work including certain aspects of the media has got the better of me and frustrated me a lot of late and is something I need to make decisions on in going forward to totally eradicate and not impact upon my concentration levels.
I also really don't have the energy to be dealing with such things no more or with those who think they have an entitlement to just take my work, and it is running me down personally and needs reviewing, as I've also had several off days in recent weeks due to recurring illness (see current medication image in comments) and no doubt due to the overall stress of this situation I'm desperate to try and stop.
I'm also not making excuses here or looking for sympathy but being more honest on my current situation, and I'm even as honest to say that the forecast errors were made and stuck to by myself for this last week before I started to struggle with illness due to my already lowered immune system from my IBD medication, for which I have also honestly provided a dated image of my current medication in the comments section below.
Future forecast updates announcement and weather reports to follow shortly...
Regards and speak soon,
James (27/01/2025)
UK & Ireland Week Ahead Weather Update + More Winter Storms & Heavy Snow In Places Before Some Much Quieter Weather...
The next wave of unsettled and stormy weather will start to approach from the far south of the UK and Ireland once again during this evening and into the early hours of tomorrow.
Initially this will bring rain and moderate to strong winds across the far southwest and across southern England and Ireland before spreading northwards across all other areas during tomorrow.
However, as this rain and unsettled conditions push northwards from the early hours of Monday, they will begin to turn wintry in nature and there is a good risk of some moderate to heavy and settling snow in this period in some parts of Wales to begin with and with the possibility of some less intense and transient snow in parts of eastern and western coastal areas in Ireland and southern Ireland.
From around 2AM Monday until around 9AM will then bring a significantly heightened risk for some quite heavy and settling snow across some parts of central and northern England, particularly but not restricted to some large parts of northern and northwest England and some parts of central England towards Birmingham or Nottingham during the early hours before transferring to the north and Scotland later.
The risk of further snow will continue as the next stormy bout passes through tomorrow afternoon and evening in some parts of northwest and northern England and Wales.
After a temporarily quieter run of weather, we will begin to see another stormy feature approaching from the south during Wednesday evening and into Thursday and this will initially bring further rain and strong winds to many parts of southern England and some central areas at first, before turning to potentially moderate to heavy snow during Wednesday evening and Thursday in these same localities (southern and central England) and some parts of Wales (may extend further north yet).
The good news it that this will then pave the way for some much more settled and better weather afterwards over a potentially prolonged time period, but we do expect more winter storms and the snow to return at certain points, particularly heading into spring and deep spring on our current forecasting projections.
However, around Friday 31st January could also bring some last and widely distributed snow showers across the north (at least moderate confidence and one to watch for)…
https://exactaweather.com/spring-and-summer-2025
Our dated week ahead forecast re-covered the earlier named storm we had been previously covering and the next pending one by stating:
"The 2 x expected winter storms and/or named storms (significant low-pressure areas) will then make their approach around Friday and again on Sunday/Monday, bringing with them strong to exceptionally strong winds at times and rain to begin with."
"However, it will also be cold enough at particular times during this Friday-to-Sunday/Monday period for widespread and disruptive snow showers to develop across large parts of the UK and Ireland in among these windy and stormy conditions."
https://www.facebook.com/100063588901621/posts/1141949544601332/?app=fbl
“These strong winds could also become very strong and reach over AT LEAST 70-90 MPH in some of the worst hit regions during Friday, particularly in some western parts of the country, Scotland, and across parts of Northern Ireland.”
https://www.facebook.com/100063588901621/posts/1142982827831337/?app=fbl
Another earlier update stated the following about next week:
"However, the next series of the Atlantic weather influences after this from Monday to Wednesday of next week will arrive and coincide and mix with some much cooler air at times in this same period to bring further snow possibilities well into next week."
https://www.facebook.com/100063588901621/posts/1144586867670933/?app=fbl
Yesterday's update followed this up further by also stating:
"This will then pave the way for some similar weather scenarios to develop around the middle of next week but with more of a snow risk, including more southern regions quite far south."
https://www.facebook.com/100063588901621/posts/1145429247586695/?app=fbl
I know most people are all for the snow prospects, but I have also covered these expected winter storms and the overall scale in other areas on my part quite well...
Again, stay safe and take care!
https://exactaweather.com/uk-short-range-weather
James Madden: Exacta Weather
26/01/2025
The following two updates and videos from much earlier last year (early October 2024) explained why we are seeing so many storms (way above-average) and why they were expected to continue in the long-term autumn and winter periods.
And several major winter storms later with more to come...
Plus our dated news article covering this from several years earlier >>>
https://vm.tiktok.com/ZGdAWPLuc/
Snow Risk Intensifies Further Over The Coming Days & Where?
Throughout this afternoon and this evening will see a wintry mix of rain, sleet, and snow working northwards from the south of Ireland.
This will initially occur more in central and northern parts of Ireland as transient snow mixed in with rain, but higher ground and some lower levels could be at risk of wintry weather and snow in this period.
The wintry precipitation will then extend into some western parts of the UK overnight and during the early hours of Sunday and parts of Wales, northern England, and Scotland are likely to see some further snow in places across higher ground and potentially to some lower levels and may even extend into some small parts of central England and Yorkshire.
The next waves of unsettled weather and precipitation will then work in from Sunday day and into Sunday evening as largely RAIN for most, with some further transient snow possible in certain parts of northern England and Scotland.
However, the next expected weather feature and bands of precipitation for Sunday evening and into early Monday now bring a significant risk to certain parts of the country, as I will explain.
Firstly, this next expected weather event is likely to be more rain and wind for Ireland and large parts of southern England and others, but some other decent sized areas of central and northern England (not everywhere), could actually see some now quite heavy and temporary accumulating snow in this same period that could warrant weather warnings.
Additionally, this is also something I covered for repeatedly for these EXACT dates and scenario in my week ahead weather and multiple weather updates for snow on the same days.
https://www.facebook.com/100063588901621/posts/1141949544601332/?app=fbl
This will then pave the way for some similar weather scenarios to develop around the middle of next week but with more of a snow risk, including more southern regions quite far south.
More details are to follow on this weather event soon...
James Madden: Exacta Weather
25/01/2025
Where we could see snow in the coming days (UK, Ireland, & London) + more winter storms and snow possibilities into next week…
After the current stormy weather effectively passes through the far north later this afternoon and evening, we will still see some residual snow across higher ground in Scotland and Northern Ireland, before they begin to intensify into blizzards this evening in Scotland and with some possible snow in parts of the far south of Ireland.
Overnight and early morning snow or heavy snow is also likely to form on Saturday across parts of Wales, and central and southern England and in and around the capital as a band of rain turns wintry across some large swathes in these parts (not everywhere, but this will cover some large areas in these parts).
Saturday afternoon and evening will then bring a significant risk of snow across some large parts of Ireland to begin with, and before spreading across many western parts of the UK as snow from Wales upwards into Sunday.
Unfortunately, that barrage of storms from the Atlantic looks set to continue from later Sunday and this SECOND and expected storm covered earlier in the week on my part, will be a largely rain event for many with some further snow among rain further north.
However, the next series of the Atlantic weather influences after this from Monday to Wednesday of next week will arrive and coincide and mix with some much cooler air at times in this same period to bring further snow possibilities well into next week.
James Madden: Exacta Weather
24/01/2025
Named and expected winter storm set to arrive from Friday, and it WILL bring widespread snow + When are where snow warnings are likely to be issued? Explained…
Prior to the now first named and expected storm arriving across our shores during the early hours of Friday morning we will also see rain turning temporarily to snow or heavy and settling snow in places (higher and lower elevations) on Thursday afternoon and evening in parts across the northern half of the UK and Ireland and potentially in some parts as far south as central England, Wales, and to the east of Ireland.
The named winter storm will then make its presence felt across large parts of the UK and Ireland from around late Thursday and during the early hours of Friday, initially bringing with it strong winds and heavy rain.
These strong winds could also become very strong and reach over at least 70-90 MPH in some of the worst hit regions during Friday, particularly in some western parts of the country, Scotland, and across parts of Northern Ireland.
It WILL also be cold enough for some widespread and disruptive heavy snow showers to form from expected these developments during Friday, and I would be very surprised if there aren’t any snow warnings in place from elsewhere across some large parts of northern England and Scotland and Northern Ireland for this period.
Parts as far south as some central regions could also see rain turning to temporary snow during this same period of earlier Friday but there is a bit more of a fine line for being definitive on snow occurring here, and will have to be more of a wait and see event for these parts.
However, our forecast still also fully expects widespread snow showers to continue in the days after this (something our forecast has always stated for these dates) as I will explain.
From around Friday evening and into early Saturday will see further snow and heavy snow across some large parts of the north, including northern England, Scotland, and Northern Ireland, for which apt weather warnings are also likely to be issued.
Those snow showers will continue into this weekend and could also become well-organised to give some moderate to heavy and potentially accumulating snow in parts as far south as the capital and southern England and some central regions (for which warnings are also likely to follow from elsewhere).
Early to mid-Saturday will see that snow risk being highlighted by others in southern England and potentially towards the capital of the country, and around Saturday evening and into the early hours of Sunday WILL see the snow risk heightening once again across some large parts of the north including Scotland and northern England and potentially to the north and west of Ireland a little earlier.
Some of these final snow and heavy snow showers for this week WILL also be likely to reach as parts as far south as some central regions and parts of Wales during this same end of the week period.
Our dated winter storm warnings and snow expectations from several days earlier for these exact days and dates.
https://www.facebook.com/100063588901621/posts/1139378431525110/?app=fbl
https://www.facebook.com/100063588901621/posts/1140465578083062/?app=fbl
Our most recent week ahead forecast also went a little further and strongly showed at least 1-2 named storms for this upcoming period:
https://www.facebook.com/100063588901621/posts/1141949544601332/?app=fbl
James Madden: Exacta Weather
(22/01/2025)
The Severe Wintry Weather & Snow Persist Across Britain & Ireland This Week, But For How Long & When Will The More Memorable Cold/Snow Arrive...
The wintry, icy, and snowy conditions have been persisting in some large parts of the north overnight and into early today (Monday), and some parts of northern, central, and eastern and southern England are all at risk of this precipitation band turning wintry in places through today and into this evening, and in parts of Wales and Ireland.
Additionally, our last several website updates and dated postings on here, and since the week before last, have clearly stated that this snowy period would persist for several days once it started and again in parts further south from further expected low-pressure areas in this period.
One of those low-pressure areas will arrive in and around Wednesday afternoon/evening and into early Thursday, and this will once again bring the risk of some moderate to heavy snow in parts of southern England and towards the capital.
The current projections are also for this low pressure to be more of a southern England-only snow event unless we see some changes to drag in some parts further north between now and then.
However, frequent snow showers will still continue to develop across parts away from the south of the UK and Ireland during this working week, and although anywhere could see a passing one, they will be more likely in coastal areas and parts of Wales in addition to some further heavier snow showers across Scotland and Northern Ireland/Ireland.
Additionally, our last several website updates and dated postings on here stated that these conditions would start to head back to normal by the end of this upcoming week, but only after another low-pressure and stormy area brings the risk of further at least transient snow for in and around next weekend and prior to this event starting to turn things much milder.
At present the other main third-party computer models are not fully buying a stormy or at least transient snowy period as this low-pressure feature passes through around next weekend, but we could see details of this changing as the week progresses, and it is definitely a work in process for the finer details and its overall snow prospects as of yet, but a respite in the colder weather and snow potential will reduce for several days significantly following on from this milder and windy weather and rain transition afterwards.
Unfortunately, with the thaw will come ample flood warnings once again...
Additionally, our several-month-ahead winter subscribers report covered a major snow event for these exact dates in early January, in addition to what we expect to be an even more memorable weather event later in January and possibly into at least early February, which we still expect to occur with even higher confidence on an already high confidence scenario due to the recent and expected cold and snow that has taken shape so nicely.
https://exactaweather.com/autumn-and-winter
Throughout much of the last working week, we had snow across Scotland and in parts of northeast England and Ireland, and although not to the exact scale we had expected, it snowed when we said it would again, and images are available of snow in these locations for then via X and our Facebook page.
However, the more recent and continuing snowstorm of this weekend was more to scale and included snow in parts that were never meant to see any snow (London), according to others (it was also always touted and covered as the biggest of these TWO snowy/stormy periods on our part).
Our posting from 29 December and below (8 DAYS AGO) covering the past working week snow events and something bigger for the weekend/snowstorm, including parts of southern England.
https://www.facebook.com/100063588901621/posts/1124976309631989/?app=fbl
Additionally, below are some of the heaviest snow images from yesterday, courtesy of X, and the link provided below also contains further images of the snowstorm and snow-filled roads across some large parts of the country during early Sunday morning.
https://www.facebook.com/100063588901621/posts/1130163385779948/?app=fbl
For those non-snow enthusiasts or more warm-weather lovers…
Our UK & Ireland Spring & Summer 2025 long-range forecasts provide details on when and what to expect for the upcoming spring and summer 2025 periods.
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https://exactaweather.com/spring-and-summer-2025
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https://exactaweather.com/summer-2024-free-report
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https://exactaweather.com/autumn-and-winter-2024%2F25
James Madden: Exacta Weather
(06/01/2025)
When and where to expect snow over the coming days, and a big snow event is still set to strike this weekend!
I'm unsure as to why others have changed their outlook or warning statuses for this week.
Additionally, when does their forecast ever match mine, and then 90% of the time it flips at the last minute... I totally ignore their projections the best I can, tbf, and they have also ALL started updating just after me of late.
As far as I can see from my own projections and those of the GFS, some large parts of the UK and Ireland will still be getting snow from Wednesday to Friday of this week and in parts as far south as southern and eastern England.
Some changes for the weekend and the low-pressure areas, which I don't totally buy yet, but the alternative scenario will still bring snow across the board as that expected cold on our part digs in further and as expected/covered in many other updates.
I hope this extra update helps and sort of explains, but at the same time conclusively proves I pay little or no attention to elsewhere, news, or TV forecasts (something I am very proud of).
Our overnight projections and those of others, such as the GFS, still show further heavy snow falling across the far north of Scotland and potentially in some parts of Northern Ireland during the early part of New Year's Day/tomorrow.
Additionally, they also show that a decent snow event is likely to form across parts of northern and northeast England during the evening of the 1st and potentially in some parts of Wales and to the west of Ireland as any rain turns to snow in these parts.
Some further but less intensive snow is also likely to develop in this same period in some central regions and across parts of Yorkshire, and some currently questionable snow is still possible in some southern areas depending on how far south the precipitation turns wintry in this period.
The snow showers will then become less frequent or less widespread throughout Friday as it begins to turn colder from the north, but some snow showers are still likely to occur across parts of Scotland and eastern England and potentially in parts to the north and east of Ireland.
However, by Sunday many parts of the country (UK and Ireland) are now likely to be at the risk of seeing snow and heavy snow, and snow warnings will be in place across large parts of the country (north and south) as a major spell of cold and snow arrives across our shores and persists with variation for several days.
A close-running low-pressure feature also needs monitoring for further snow opportunities across southern areas for this same period.
Additionally, this will also pave the way for something even more memorable and potent in terms of cold and snow for later in January, and to match our unchanged several-month-ahead winter report for the exact same dates.
James Madden: Exacta Weather
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