Much hotter conditions are finally gaining recognition from elsewhere as the next heat surge and extreme temperatures arrive on cue!
The third-party weather forecasts and various apps are now finally starting to become aware of the incoming hot weather over the next several days.
However, they are still quite far away from what the actual temperature values will rise to in reality from tomorrow and through to around Wednesday or Thursday of next week, at the very least.
Additionally, temperatures could still reach as high as the mid- to high 20s in parts of the northern half of the country in this developing period, and 30°C or more still can't be ruled out in certain parts.
However, parts of the southern half of the country and particularly parts of central and southern England could see the hottest temperatures extending into the mid- to high 30s (extreme) at the peak of this from the mid- to end of the next working week. Overnight temperatures will also struggle to go below or even stay above 20°C in places within this period.
After this next period of major heat and from later next week, it is becoming more favourable for a brief run of somewhat cooler and more unsettled conditions prior to the next heat surge for in and August 10 (10–15).
This projected unsettled period is something that requires further analysis over the coming days and isn't something I completely trust due to an underestimation of the current strength of the jet stream and high pressure intensification across our shores for this period.
However, there are some repeated indicators for this scenario to occur or have some kind of influence that simply can't be discarded as of yet and is something I have been caught out with before within my old forecasts, hence a bit of caution from myself.
Again, a few more days of analysis are required, and I feel this less favourable weather scenario will become somewhat more diluted as the major high pressure build begins and intensifies across our shores from this weekend and into next week.
However, we must take nothing away from the types of hot to extreme temperatures that we can now fully expect to develop over the next 5–6 days at the very least, as it's going to get very hot for many and much hotter than the current app and TV forecasts, which are now rising on cue day by day.
Our update from earlier this week, when there were no such indications from elsewhere, stated:
"The bigger and better changes for this summer will begin to occur around Friday and throughout the next weekend as high pressure begins to build in and send temperatures rising significantly for all parts of the UK and Ireland, throughout the remainder of the month, and into early August over a high-confidence 1-2 week period."
"Additionally, it is within this developing period that we will now see those temperatures rising to some possibly extreme values of in and around the mid to high 30s in the hottest parts of the country as a potentially high-risk heat dome scenario begins to take hold across our shores."
"Even parts further north and in much of Scotland and Ireland are also likely to see a consistent run of prolonged temperatures in the mid to high 20s, at the very least as high pressure becomes the more predominant feature to deliver lots of on-cue and widespread summery weather, hot conditions, and extreme heat over the coming weeks."
https://exactaweather.com/uk-short-range-weather
An earlier Daily Mirror article at the start of the week titled "UK temperatures to go well above average and 30°C again from this weekend" also stated before any other forecast or forecasters:
Madden predicts this heatwave could persist through the end of July and into August, potentially marking a "one to two-week period" of high temperatures starting this weekend.
Madden said: "It is within this developing period that we will now see those temperatures rising to some possibly extreme values of in and around the mid to high 30Cs in the hottest parts of the country as a potentially high-risk heat dome scenario begins to take hold across our shores.
https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/uk-weather-heat-dome-send-33294801
Additional postings also seriously questioned the then-current BBC and Met Office temperature projections for this period by also stating:
"It is literally beyond my comprehension why public service providers for the weather, such as the BBC and Met Office, are not covering this developing heat to extreme heat situation better and the actual types of temperatures we can now expect to see in reality within this developing period from Sunday onwards."
"Watch this space, everyone, as it's about to become very hot, if not extremely hot, for many parts of the country over the coming days!"
https://vm.tiktok.com/ZGeW5ScwU/
An additional Daily Mirror article from early July also stated the following in reference to mid- and late-July:
"This will allow for our shores (UK and Ireland) to come under a much warmer airflow over an extended period from this pattern change, and it will also place us in an extremely favourable position for high pressure rises and some hot to very hot temperatures on a widespread scale from in and around mid-July and throughout much of the second half of the month."
https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/uk-weather-exact-date-mini-33142029.amp
Our 12- to 14-week in advance forecast was a "high confidence" scenario for this to occur or start developing, particularly in and around July 15–17 onwards and throughout the second half of July.
https://exactaweather.com/summer-2024-free-report
Time for all the other forecasts and forecasters to start pretending that they forecast this incoming heat all along, but we all know the real 'truth' and all the proof you need for myself in terms of short, moderate, and long range forecasting for this exact period has been provided above.
Unfortunately, the ineptness of pretty much all other forecasts and apps of late cast some serious doubt on our repeated forecast details for this exact period over a transparently proven and extended period on my part.
Seriously, guys, I was literally sitting here once again with people paying little or no attention or interaction to our posts, with only a small number or a handful of post likes and post shares from our 'in the know' regulars who have followed us for years (thank you to those individuals).
Enjoy everyone, but on a more serious note, also take care during the more extreme temperature values at the peak of this heat.
James Madden: Exacta Weather
(27/07/2025 - 00:28)
Autumn, early winter 2024/25, and SSW weather reports: will it snow? ☀️🍂❄️🥶
Major heat and potentially extreme temperatures are set to arrive on cue this weekend, and the apps are way, way off! 😡🥵🌞
From this Sunday to around Wednesday at the very least of next week, we will now see a significant build of high pressure and a massive rise in temperatures across our shores (UK and Ireland).
The overall temperatures will now literally skyrocket for this 3- to 4-day period, and there is no reason as to why we won't see top temperatures in and around the mid-30s developing in parts across the southern half of the country during the peak of this.
Additionally, parts further north and in parts as far north as Scotland and Ireland will also benefit from these high pressure rises and will see temperatures peaking in the mid to low 20s at the very least; even values close to 30°C could be reached or breached in these parts within this period.
However, having done a forced check of the latest BBC app projections, they are an absolute joke and way off what they should be for this developing period and beyond. My location in Lancashire goes no higher than 19-20°C over the next several days, and parts of London are also hovering in and around or a little over the mid-20s for this same period from the apps for this Sunday to Wednesday period.
Why is this important?
This is important as heat above 30°C kills and increases fatality rates (a fact!). And no matter which way you try to look at it, with temperatures now extremely likely to be in this range within the coming days and into next week, it simply heightens the overall urgency of the situation.
It is literally beyond my comprehension why public service providers for the weather, such as the BBC and Met Office, are not covering this developing heat to extreme heat situation better and the actual types of temperatures we can now expect to see in reality within this developing period from Sunday onwards.
Additionally, we have also been here before very recently with the BBC (Broadcasting Biased C***) when temperatures fell just short of 32°C in London and it was also very warm to hot elsewhere, when the apps were up to a whopping 8°C off the hottest temperature values from just a few days ahead (something I vehemently refuted at the time with proof images of this in the following dated posting below).
There are now also some further excellent and very strong indicators for high pressure to become the more predominant feature from Sunday and into and around early August, with some small deviations possible from time to time on certain days.
Additionally, the signals are also good to strong for another major heat surge in and around August 10-15, possibly a little earlier. Our much earlier posting and public weather update for the rest of July and August also stated all of the following in reference to this:
"This gradual and significant change in our overall weather pattern over the next several days to some very warm to very hot conditions will now also pave the way for a number of additional heat surges or major heat surges during as early as next week, late July, and into August (UK and Ireland)."
"The next opportunity following on from the late July heat surge is now 'moderate to high' confidence, and we could see the theme staying warm and summery at the very least to potentially hot or very hot in places over a number of days during the early part of August."
"The second opportunity of much 'higher' confidence has been repeatedly showing in our forecasts for several weeks now for in and around August 10, and the overall period of August 10-15 looks extremely favourable for some kind of major heat surge due to a strong area of high pressure pushing in across our shores (UK and Ireland)."
"High pressure will return quite quickly and become the more predominant feature during late July to continue this on cue and expected "pattern change" with some variations from warm/hot to possible extreme temperatures in terms of heat that could see the hottest spots reaching into the mid to high 30s during as early as late July and again in August."
The following Daily Mirror article from July 1 also doubled down on this and covered the recent 32°C scenario for mid-July and also stated the following for this upcoming period and the second half of July:
"This will allow for our shores (UK and Ireland) to come under a much warmer airflow over an extended period from this pattern change, and it will also place us in an extremely favourable position for high pressure rises and some hot to very hot temperatures on a widespread scale from in and around mid-July and throughout much of the second half of the month."
https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/uk-weather-exact-date-mini-33142029.amp
An additional Daily Mirror article also trebled down on this and stated the following for the correct dates of this last heat surge and what to expect during late July and into August.
Madden said hot conditions will start to kick in from around July 19 to July 20 and into August. "We could [then] see the theme staying warm and summery at the very least to potentially hot or very hot in places over a number of days during late July and the early part of August."
He also identified August 10 to August 15 as when this second "heat surge" will strike. Madden reckons the second half of August will bring "some much cooler and unsettled weather."
However, a cooler end to August might be a welcome relief given just how high Madden reckons temperatures might go at the start of the month.
He said: "In terms of the highest temperatures during these heat surges during late July and August, we could easily see top temperatures in the mid to high 30s across the southern half of the country, with temperatures close to or hitting 30C elsewhere still to come throughout this summer during the most extreme heat and high pressure rises across our shores."
https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/uk-faces-high-30cs-heatwave-33239125.amp
Our full summer 2024 report from early April covers most, if not all, occurrences and the general patterns to date for June and July:
https://exactaweather.com/summer-2024-free-report
James Madden: Exacta Weather (25/07/24 - 06:00)
Autumn, early winter 2024/25, and SSW weather reports: will it snow? ☀️🍂❄️🥶
Warm to hot again by midweek, plus, on cue, high pressure rises to make things even hotter later next week and into early August for everyone!
Initially, high pressure will build in across our shores and influence some further warm to hot conditions, with variation from region to region for around Tuesday and Wednesday of next week.
This could see temperatures reaching at least the mid to high 20s in parts of the south and the low to mid 20s at least in some other parts further north. Any slight tweaks could also possibly see 30°C being reached again in some parts of the far south.
The midweek period and the day or so following on from this might also not be entirely perfect for all as some localised showers and variable and high cloud cover will exist in places, but it will still feel very warm to hot in places as the strong midsummer sunshine starts to make its presence felt once again.
However, the bigger and better changes for this summer will begin to occur around Friday and throughout the next weekend as high pressure begins to build in and send temperatures rising significantly for all parts of the UK and Ireland, throughout the remainder of the month, and into early August over a high-confidence 1-2 week period.
Additionally, it is within this developing period that we will now see those temperatures rising to some possibly extreme values of in and around the mid to high 30s in the hottest parts of the country as a potentially high-risk heat dome scenario begins to take hold across our shores.
Even parts further north and in much of Scotland and Ireland are also likely to see a consistent run of prolonged temperatures in the mid to high 20s, at the very least as high pressure becomes the more predominant feature to deliver lots of on-cue and widespread summery weather, hot conditions, and extreme heat over the coming weeks.
The following Daily Mirror article from early July stated the following in reference to this:
"This will allow for our shores (UK and Ireland) to come under a much warmer airflow over an extended period from this pattern change, and it will also place us in an extremely favourable position for high pressure rises and some hot to very hot temperatures on a widespread scale from in and around mid-July and throughout much of the SECOND HALF of the month."
https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/uk-weather-exact-date-mini-33142029.amp
Our 12- to 14-week in advance forecast was a "high confidence" scenario for this to occur or start developing, particularly in and around July 15–17 onwards and throughout the second half of July.
https://exactaweather.com/summer-2024-free-report
Here come some long-awaited and well-promised prolonged summer conditions and warm to hot temperatures for everyone!
James Madden: Exacta Weather
21/07/2024 - 14:28
Autumn & Early Winter 2024/25 Plus SSW Weather Updates 🍂🍁🌪️🌨️🥶
A warm to hot "pattern change" is arriving on time, but how long will it last and how settled, hot, or extreme will it become?
I don't watch TV forecasts or check app projections for obvious reasons and to avoid distraction from my own forecast projections, but quite a few people left comments on my posts last week about TV forecasters and other weather pages laughing at the possibility of temperatures reaching 30°C during THIS WEEK!
However, today is July 17, and temperatures are expected to reach or exceed the mid-20s or higher this afternoon in parts of southern England, with warm-to-humid temperatures developing elsewhere.
Thursday, July 18, and Friday, July 19, will see maximum temperatures climbing even higher, and we should see temperatures reaching into the mid- to high 20s across large parts of the country, particularly across parts to the south and east of the country, when temperatures could reach or exceed the 30°C mark for the second time this summer in London.
This could also re-register the hottest day of the year for 2024, particularly in parts of the south and east on Friday.
Throughout the upcoming weekend and into early next week, we will see a temporary dip in these temperatures to something more comfortable, and with this comes the risk of some temporary showers or thundery downpours from across the north and sometimes in the south, but it will still be warm, with more in the way of summery and warm temperatures in comparison to late, particularly in the southern half of the country.
However, it is certainly nowhere near the widespread stormy and cool projections that were being projected from elsewhere and from the Met Office for this upcoming period, and one of my most frequent comments here of late has been as to how they are largely underestimating this upcoming "pattern change."
Additionally, this potentially unsettled period is also something that we have covered repeatedly and also downplayed somewhat but never ruled out during recent weeks (ahead of all other forecasters).
These sudden rises in temperatures are also something that nearly all of the main third-party forecasters and many weather apps have not been aware of until the past 24-48 hours or so, and they are something we have literally maintained would occur with 100% confidence in various posts, comments, and a whole multitude of national news articles, as I am about to conclusively prove in the below.
High pressure will return quite quickly and become the more predominant feature during next week and during late July to continue this on cue and expected "pattern change" with some variations from warm/hot to possible extreme temperatures in terms of heat that could see the hottest spots reaching into the mid to high 30s during late July and again in August.
The following Daily Mirror article from EARLY JULY also covered this developing scenario for MID-JULY by stating the following for this period and the SECOND HALF of July:
"This will allow for our shores (UK and Ireland) to come under a much warmer airflow over an extended period from this pattern change, and it will also place us in an extremely favourable position for high pressure rises and some hot to very hot temperatures on a widespread scale from in and around MID-JULY and throughout much of the SECOND HALF of the month."
https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/uk-weather-exact-date-mini-33142029.amp
We also posted the following during EARLY JULY, in reference to conflicting ideas and forecasts from elsewhere for this period:
"Unfortunately, other forecasts or forecasters who can't or won't forecast this far ahead simply confuse the issue as they don't really know intrinsically what will happen the next few days, never mind from next week and in and around mid-July."
"However, you can almost pretty much GUARANTEE that they will be all over it when it occurs, pretending like they forecast the hot temperatures they will be shouting about!"
https://www.facebook.com/100063588901621/posts/989409933188628/
The following posting from early July also stated:
"Unfortunately, others will make more of this and try and pinpoint everything on NEXT WEEK for their own reasons and to make me look wrong, but I can't have been any more clearer on the dates for this, which is now EXTREMELY LIKELY to happen."
https://www.facebook.com/100063588901621/posts/990023123127309/
The following Daily Mirror article titled 'Get the BBQs Ready' also recently stated (when there were no such indications from elsewhere still):
Exacta Weather's James Madden has now warned that Brits are in for a scorcher in their latest forecast. Madden announced: "Get the barbecues at the ready, as a big change and some big heat are now set to arrive on cue!
He added: "The expected and well-promised pattern change for July 10-20, particularly July 15-17, is now on and imminent for some very hot to potentially extreme heat, which is now on the horizon for many parts of the country within the next several days."
**We said nothing about 40°C in any of our updates or in "quotes." This is an editorial error.**
https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/uk-weather-exact-date-maps-33186429
Finally, the following posting from last week then doubled down on all of the early July forecast information by 'scoffing' at the then current BBC app projections, GUARANTEEING much warmer temperatures for this period, and also stating, "No wonder, no one believes it or doesn't think a major heatwave is coming!".
The temperatures for London are now up to 6°C higher than these earlier app projections pictured below and are possibly still being undervalued by a few degrees.
https://www.facebook.com/100063588901621/posts/pfbid0AEjuVXWgCjcCt2q3ucDxRqWu9F9jtj4c7TuzLTyZeGuNYMM4mSdStRmrxo4t7WoPl/
Our 12- to 14-week in advance forecast also covered the dates of July 10–20 as a "high confidence" scenario for this to occur or start developing, particularly in and around July 15–17 onwards and throughout the second half of July.
https://exactaweather.com/summer-2024-free-report
James Madden: Exacta Weather
(17/06/2024: 00:05)
Autumn & Early Winter 2024/25 Plus SSW Updates Now Live 🍂🍁🌪️🌨️🥶
UK & Ireland July and August update: An upcoming pattern change to warm to hot conditions in July will bring further bonus heatwaves or excessive heat into August!
A gradual and significant change in our overall weather pattern to very warm to very hot conditions throughout next week and late July (particularly for several days or more from around July 19–20) will also pave the way for a number of additional heat surges or major heatwaves during August.
It could now also become very hot or exceptionally hot prior to these August heat surges and for in and around July 25th.
The first opportunity following on from the late July heat surge is 'moderate' confidence, and we could see the theme staying warm and summery at the very least to potentially hot or very hot in places over a number of days during the early part of August.
The second opportunity of much 'higher' confidence has been repeatedly showing in our forecasts for several weeks now for in and around August 10, and the overall period of August 10-15 looks extremely favourable for some kind of major heat surge due to a strong area of high pressure pushing in across our shores (UK and Ireland).
It is important to note that these potential heatwaves or heat surges in August are bonus heatwaves, so to speak, and were not actually part of our original long-range summer forecast, for which we had expected a quick reversion to the predominant cooler and unsettled conditions of much of the summer to date once again.
However, as with the mid-to-late June heat surge with temperatures exceeding 30°C, which we identified and repeated from late May onwards due to some earlier and repeated forecast indicators that were not in our original projections (still a long range forecast in itself), and this is pretty much the same for this one in and around August 10.
https://m.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=960691106060511&id=100063588901621
These August forecast changes are also in part due to the slightly later and back-end arrival of this significant pattern change for the given period of July 10–20 onwards in our several month-ahead projections for this summer in the above report.
Unfortunately, the same forecast indicators are also seeing some much cooler and unsettled weather returning in August, particularly during the second half of the month and possibly a little earlier, when it could become predominant and potentially autumnal or even stormy at times, but some short summery bursts could still be possible at times, particularly across more southern regions.
This cooler and unsettled weather was also covered in our long range summer for August, just as it was for prolonged periods throughout June and the first half of July in the following report available to subscribers since early April below.
https://exactaweather.com/summer-2024-free-report
However, we are now about to see the most significant pattern change of this summer gradually taking place throughout the upcoming week and for in or around and extremely close to our 12 to 13 week in advance projections for this, for in and around July 10-20 (see above report).
In terms of the highest temperatures during these heat surges during late July and August, we could easily see top temperatures in the mid to high 30s across the southern half of the country, with temperatures close to our hitting 30°C elsewhere still to come throughout this summer during the most extreme heat and high pressure rises across our shores (UK and Ireland).
Any slight and inevitable downward trends or variations in this period of heat for late July and early to mid August will still see us bathing in warm to hot temperatures of several degrees Celsius above the seasonal average.
There could also be an exception for a small number of potentially quite cooler and unsettled days during next week and prior to these bigger changes taking place (something we have covered repeatedly in 3 out of 3 weather updates over the past 7–10 days).
https://www.facebook.com/100063588901621/posts/994375436025411/?app=fbl
However, the warm to hot days will also start to make their presence felt in places as early as this weekend and through next week due to ridges of high pressure becoming more influential on our overall weather pattern.
James Madden: Exacta Weather (13/06/2024 - 06:00)
Autumn & Early Winter 2024/25 Plus SSW Updates Now Live 🍂🍁🌪️🌨️🥶
Summer returns this week, but for how long and when is it likely to get hot?
The upcoming week will begin on a rather unsettled and cool note for many as low pressure dominates proceedings, bringing frequent or, at times, thundery showers for many, among some summery periods or bursts.
From in and around Thursday/Friday (11–12 July) and into next weekend, we will see high pressure becoming more influential on our overall weather pattern, and this will see conditions turning much warmer than of late over several days and will also bring potentially humid feeling conditions for many.
These temperatures could easily reach as high as the mid to high 20s in some places and 20°C or higher in some other parts further north to begin with during this period in the best of the summer sunshine due to its strength at this time of year (something not showing elsewhere for the majority of last week).
There are some current questions about a possible interruption to this pattern after next weekend from the main third-party computer models, but I really don't trust these projections, and even if it did occur, it would only be for a day or so and doesn't seem that important of a feature.
However, what does warrant importance is the high pressure build and possibly extreme temperatures (mid to high 30s) for the days to follow on from this and for in and around July 16–17 onwards (something showing consistently on models such as the GFS), possibly earlier if the cooler dip being projected at the moment from elsewhere becomes less desirable within their projections over the coming week.
Additionally, this is also the start of a significant pattern change that will keep us in predominantly warm to very hot temperatures with some obvious variations in intensity throughout the remainder of July and into the start of August at the very least.
The following posting from earlier in the week also stated:
"Unfortunately, others will make more of this and try and pinpoint everything on NEXT WEEK for their own reasons and to make me look wrong, but I can't have been any more clearer on the dates for this, which is now extremely likely to happen."
https://www.facebook.com/100063588901621/posts/990023123127309/
Our 12-week in advance forecast also covered the dates of July 10–20 as a "high confidence" scenario for this to occur, particularly for in and around July 15–17.
https://exactaweather.com/summer-2024-free-report
More to follow on this shortly.
James Madden: Exacta Weather
(08/07/2024, 05:28)
Our Autumn 2024 (Sept-Dec) and early Winter 2024/25 + SSW reports are now available to view at:
A mixed week to come with a significant and imminent pattern change later to allow for the mid-July heat!
Throughout the upcoming week, we will see low pressure impacting our weather in terms of some cooler and windy weather, particularly across parts of the north and in Scotland and Ireland for in and around Thursday, where it could even become unusually stormy or feel quite autumnal due to some moderate to strong winds at times.
Additionally, many other parts will also be seeing some quite cloudy and at least some breezy weather at times throughout this week, among some warmer periods when the sun creeps through in places, and the strength of the sun at this time of the year could still turn things quite warm at times in the best of the sunshine and bring temperatures ranging in the low to mid-20s for parts of the south and east.
These potential cooler periods for long periods in June and the first half of July were also concisely covered for the "first half of summer" due to a more southern-driven jet stream in our early April and the unchanged weather report for this summer in the below (see pages 1 and 3).
https://exactaweather.com/summer-2024-free-report
However, we now expect the more southern-driven jet stream to start to drive northwards from in and around this time next week and during the following week, starting on July 8th.
This will allow for our shores (UK and Ireland) to come under a much warmer airflow over an extended period from this pattern change, and it will also place us in an extremely favourable position for high pressure rises and some hot to very hot temperatures on a widespread scale from in and around mid-July and throughout much of the second half of the month.
The latest GFS model projections have also incorporated some very hot options for us around this same period in two of their last four model runs, and this is something that will become more frequent and strengthen over the next several days. It could also take the pattern change to actually occur within the next 5–10 days before the main third-party computer models become fully aware of these widespread or extreme hot periods in July.
More forecast details are to follow on this shortly.
James Madden: Exacta Weather (30/06/2024 05:00)
A very hot period underway on cue, but briefly cooler, thundery, and unsettled for the north later? before high pressure returns and an early July update!
The developing hot period is now underway, and temperatures should reach into the low 30s at the very least in the hottest spots of some central, southern, and eastern England regions over the coming days.
Elsewhere and in some parts further north, we could also see maximum temperatures in the high 20s and maybe even 30°C being reached in some locations within this same period of Monday to Wednesday (more likely Monday or Tuesday in these parts).
Parts of Ireland and Northern Ireland will have a less intense heat burst after some hot temperatures in places today that could see heat in excess of 25°C in the hottest spots. However, the days following will still be warm in parts of northern Ireland and to the east of the country, and we will probably still see warm temperatures in the low 20s, at the very least in the best of the sunshine over the coming days in these parts.
However, the UK heatwave or hot weather daily maximum temperature threshold is between 25°C and 28°C, depending on where you are in the UK, for around this time of the year. Therefore, anything above this can be termed "extreme," particularly when some parts of the south will certainly well exceed these values over the coming days, with potential maximum temperatures reaching the low 30s.
These types of rapid temperature changes are also "extreme" for the vulnerable and elderly in society!
The hot weather will 'temporarily' begin to ease around Thursday and Friday across parts of the north, with a “thundery breakdown” likely in some parts of the country, particularly across the northern half of the country for around this period.
However, there are question marks surrounding the extent and longevity of these exact developments, and parts of the south and regions in the southern half of the country may actually escape any temporary cooler and unsettled blip later on in the week altogether as the influence of high pressure and warm temperatures clings on for longer than expected in these parts.
Additionally, it also looks favourable for high pressure to make a quick return and become quite influential on our overall weather pattern for further warm to hot conditions to develop across our shores for in and around next weekend and during early July.
This is also being indicated on the most recent GFS and ECM runs that I checked (although they may be prone to further changes this week before verifying our version). Additionally, they are also nowhere near some of the projections that were being banded about for predominantly wet and windy weather to take over later this week, late June, and well into July.
Moving forward from this and during early July, this leaves us with two favourable options that require further analysis over the coming days:
A. We will see an intensification or major intensification of high pressure in and around this late June and early July period.
B. We will see more of a north and south divide for at least several days or more after any initial and additional high pressure rises of a lesser nature during late June or early July.
The following updates during LAST WEEK also covered the severity of the upcoming heat being way off in the apps and the prolonged unsettled weather projections for later this week to be unlikely and more likely brief if anything by stating the following:
"Unfortunately, the weather apps are way off in terms of the temperatures we can actually expect to see and any cooler or unsettled projections for afterwards."
"An example of this that is frustrating to see from my side are the current BBC app projections for my own location in Lancashire from Sunday to Wednesday, and they range from 18°C to 24°C (this was a forced check under the circumstances, btw). Additionally, projections for London for this same period also only indicate average temperatures of around 24°C at present."
"However, in reality, we can expect much higher maximum daily temperatures than this for this developing period (Sunday to Wednesday/Thursday), and something more akin to the high 20s or possibly even 30°C would be more apt for my own location alone, and I expect them to be the same for elsewhere, with London reaching at least 30°C or higher."
"Beyond Thursday of next week and during late June may turn temporarily less warm and a little more unsettled but under a much warmer and surrounding flow, which crucially the apps also won't or can't really consider going forward."
"If any cooler or unsettled blip does occur afterwards, it will more than likely be brief and still quite warm and summery for many in between any showers and potential thunderstorms (part and parcel of heat events), and then the signals are quite good for another turning up of temperatures during the final days of June and into July."
https://www.facebook.com/100063588901621/posts/979165257546429/
https://www.facebook.com/100063588901621/posts/978680560928232/
Additionally, our final summer forecast update in May added and stated the following for this period:
"Additionally, we could also see a very hot and extensive period of warmth developing within around this same MID- to LATE-month period, which could see temperatures topping out at something much higher than this at the peak of any heat event around this time."
https://www.facebook.com/100063588901621/posts/978788604250761/?app=fbl
An additional update doubled down on this in early June by stating:
"There are now some good and increasing signals for change just after MID-MONTH and into the FINAL part of JUNE within our OWN forecast projections that appear to repeatedly build high pressure and some warm to potentially hot temperatures across our shores within this period, and this switch should be more than capable of bringing the warmest weather of the year to date to many locations within the UK and Ireland."
https://www.facebook.com/100063588901621/posts/970854838377471/
An additional national news article within the Daily Mirror trebled down on this during last week by also stating (when there were still NO such indications or certainties from elsewhere for this developing period):
Exacta Weather forecaster James Madden said the current warm weather would persist as it is at present before temperatures would start to rise "significantly" by the day on June 23. He added that, after this, the UK could see a "good few days" of "very warm" and "hot" weather, setting the stage for a potential heatwave and the first 30C highs of the year.
"At the absolute bare minimum, we should be looking at a good three to five day very warm and hot period or longer, with potentially excessively hot weather developing during this period as some major heat gets drawn north thanks to high pressure across our shores."
"Additionally, these temperatures could reach as high as the low to mid-30s in parts of the south at the peak of this within the next several days, with parts further north and into Ireland also potentially seeing the 30C mark being reached from this type of high-pressure setup, or at least the high 20s in many parts."
The Met Office has been LESS EXACT regarding the possible highs Britons could see in late June, but has now confirmed it will "turn increasingly warm" over the next week.
More forecast updates are to follow shortly...
James Madden: Exacta Weather (05:00 24/06/2024)
Today is the 17th of June and pretty bang on mid-month, and a weather pattern change is now in clear development over the coming days that will see rising temperatures from warm/hot to very hot conditions within the next several days and during late June.
Our final and additional update to our summer 2024 report during late May, when there were NO such indications from elsewhere, stated:
"Additionally, we could also see a very hot and extensive period of warmth developing within around this same mid- to late-month period (June), which could see temperatures topping out at something much higher than this at the peak of any heat event around this time."
https://m.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=960691106060511&id=100063588901621
An additional update from early June also repeated this same forecast information by reinforcing my forecast idea for this period and stating:
"There are now some good and increasing signals for change just after mid-month and into the final part of June within our OWN forecast projections that appear to repeatedly build high pressure and some warm to potentially hot temperatures across our shores within this period, and this switch should be more than capable of bringing the warmest weather of the year to date to many locations within the UK and Ireland."
"We can also expect further changes to these third-party computer projections going forward and to pave the way for a very warm to exceptionally hot July, with the high possibility of some sort of mega or super heatwave developing for an extended duration within this period."
https://www.facebook.com/100063588901621/posts/970854838377471/
Now if that's not a long-range forecast in itself, then I'm not sure what is or counts? 🤔
Particularly when many of the others are still toying with the idea and can't offer any kind of certainty going forward.Particularly when many of the others are still toying with the idea and can't offer any kind of certainty going forward.
Summer is about to arrive on cue with a vengeance throughout this week and throughout late June, and please don't be fooled by the inept app projections (which have proven to be highly unreliable in the short, moderate, and long range projections of late).
The only real question marks are surrounding how hot it will actually become within this period for the UK and Ireland. 🌞🌞🌞
James Madden: Exacta Weather (17/06/24 06:00)
Summer finally arrives this week and is also set to turn progressively hotter to exceptionally hot within several days!
(Despite what the apps currently show)
The upcoming week will now finally see summer starting to arrive across our shores as high pressure becomes influential on our overall weather pattern.
By the middle of the week, parts of southern England will start to see temperatures approaching or exceeding the mid-20s in places (6C above-average for June), and the low 20s will also start to be reached in parts further north from the strength of the strong summer sunshine at this time of the year (despite what the apps are currently indicating).
Additionally, from this weekend and during early next week, it is now likely to see extensive high pressure dominating with significantly rising temperatures for most, if not all, parts of the country, and we really could see temperatures topping out at much significantly higher values than current app indications suggest.
As an example, my location in Lancashire is currently only showing low 20s for later this week and during next week on most apps, and only or below the mid-20s for regions further south, including London.
However, and more realistically, they should really be portraying much more extreme temperature values for this period than at present, and on the basis of now recurrent and consistent weather projections from my own projections and the GFS/ECM, they should be portraying maximum temperatures of at least 30-35 Celsius in parts of the south and in excess of 30C, or at the very least high 20s further north, and for Ireland at times from later this week and during late June.
Additionally, this will also pave the way for some further heat and extreme heat during July, particularly during the period of July 10–20, possibly a little earlier.
Our detailed update on this from a few weeks earlier also stated the following in a posting titled 'any signs of warm and hot weather?'
"The current kind of setup across our shores and weather pattern continues to keep the much warmer to hot weather away from our shores at present and often makes many of the other forecasters typically lean towards cool and unsettled conditions in their week ahead forecasts, when in reality the weather we experience at ground level is somewhat different and nowhere near as unsettled as their projections."
"Additionally, many areas have seen a quite dry and sunny start to June this year, but with reduced temperatures due to this type of setup, and it has therefore not been the total washout and unsettled period that has been repeatedly projected from elsewhere, as well as what I've been trying to point out in my forecast updates."
"However, there are now some good and increasing signals for change just after mid-month and into the final part of June within our own forecast projections that appear to repeatedly build high pressure and some warm to potentially hot temperatures across our shores within this period, and this switch should be more than capable of bringing the warmest weather of the year to date to many locations within the UK and Ireland."
https://www.facebook.com/100063588901621/posts/970854838377471/
Our early June update covering this scenario stated the following:
"There are now some good and increasing signals for change just after mid-month and into the final part of June within our own forecast projections that appear to repeatedly build high pressure and some warm to potentially hot temperatures across our shores within this period, and this switch should be more than capable of bringing the warmest weather of the year to date to many locations within the UK and Ireland."
"We can also expect further changes to these third-party computer projections going forward and to pave the way for a very warm to exceptionally hot July, with the high possibility of some sort of mega or super heatwave developing for an extended duration within this period."
https://www.facebook.com/100063588901621/posts/970854838377471/
Our final and additional update to our summer 2024 report during late May also stated (sometimes additional details or forecast confidence are required in weather forecast 'updates'):
"Additionally, we could also see a very hot and extensive period of warmth developing within around this same mid- to late-month period (June), which could see temperatures topping out at something much higher than this at the peak of any heat event around this time."
https://m.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=960691106060511&id=100063588901621
Our earlier two postings in reference to heatwaves or a potential super heatwave from mid-to-late June and throughout July, plus media correction updates:
https://www.facebook.com/100063588901621/posts/959353416194280/
https://www.facebook.com/100063588901621/posts/960648132731475/
Our summer 2024 forecast, from 2-3 months in advance, covers June and July, plus the cooler and unsettled weather for June, in some quite concise detail:
https://exactaweather.com/summer-2024-free-report
James Madden: Exacta Weather (16/06/24 - 06:00)
Who's ready for summer, and are there any signs of a change to warm and hot weather?
Throughout today, we will see an improving theme for many away from parts of the far north, with some decent sunny spells in among variable cloud cover at times with relatively dry weather across the UK and Ireland and temperatures potentially nudging 20°C in parts of the south.
Sunday looks like more of the same (not a washout weekend again), and usable weather will be in place among variable cloud cover and developing sunny spells for many once again, with the exception of some showery weather in parts of the far north and Ireland, with temperatures once again possibly nudging 20°C in parts of the south, particularly in parts of southeast England.
Unfortunately, Monday tells a bit of a different story, and many areas could see some showers throughout the afternoon and early evening, and some of these could turn potentially thunderous with hail in some places.
The main third-party computer models then want to agree on another fairly cool and unsettled theme for the remainder of next week and the next several days, just as they did for this week.
However, in reality, some areas will actually be staying quite dry with some decent spells of sunshine throughout next week, when high pressure is still likely to float closely towards our shores around midweek, thus bringing some potentially drier and quite sunny conditions over a number of days and with temperatures possibly touching or exceeding the 20°C mark in places within this period.
The current kind of setup across our shores and weather pattern continues to keep the much warmer to hot weather away from our shores at present and often makes many of the other forecasters typically lean towards cool and unsettled conditions in their week ahead forecasts, when in reality the weather we experience at ground level is somewhat different and nowhere near as unsettled as their projections.
Additionally, many areas have seen a quite dry and sunny start to June this year, but with reduced temperatures due to this type of setup, and it has therefore not been the total washout and unsettled period that has been repeatedly projected from elsewhere, as well as what I've been trying to point out in my forecast updates.
However, there are now some good and increasing signals for change just after mid-month and into the final part of June within our own forecast projections that appear to repeatedly build high pressure and some warm to potentially hot temperatures across our shores within this period, and this switch should be more than capable of bringing the warmest weather of the year to date to many locations within the UK and Ireland.
The main third-party computer models have already 'downgraded' the scale of the very cool and unsettled weather going forward and during the past few days of model runs, and we can expect further changes to these projections going forward and to pave the way for a very warm to exceptionally hot July with the high possibility of some sort of mega or super heatwave developing for an extended duration within this period.
Further enhanced forecast details are to follow on this shortly, with the Azores High scenario making a move.
Unfortunately, I've embarrassingly lost my way a little lately, guys, and have gotten a bit distracted by trolls and haters suddenly appearing from nowhere and giving me a tough time (something I said I'd always try to ignore but easier said than done).
An additional and important update to follow on this shortly...
Facebook still has restrictions on my posts, but for apparently sharing links to my posts after speaking to them, and despite no violations on my account (but at least I now know where I was going wrong, and hopefully the restrictions will now be lifted soon).
James Madden: Exacta Weather (08/06/24 - 06:00)
Short-lived mixed/cool spell for the north after some early summer warmth and potentially very warm to hot again later THIS WEEK as high pressure returns! + Snow update???
Temperatures reached a warm 22°C in parts of Scotland on Saturday before exceeding 23°C in many areas on Sunday, and an even warmer 24°C was reached in parts of southern England.
Additionally, the high pressure influence and warm temperatures will cling on for the next few days and see temperatures once again exceeding the low 20s at the very least and in the hottest spots (southwest, southern and eastern England, and parts of the Midlands).
The temperatures could also be a notch or two higher than current app indications in the best of the early and warm summer sunshine, particularly in parts of southwest and southern/eastern England throughout today and into tomorrow.
Unfortunately, the jet stream will temporarily divert somewhat southwards around midweek, and this will bring some cooler and showery weather for those in the north of the country for around 1-2 days.
This may also bring some non-significant wintry showers of sleet across the highest ground in parts of Scotland during Tuesday evening and into the early hours of Wednesday, and some cool evenings could be in store for the time of the year for a night or two (all nothing out of the ordinary here).
Personally, I am struggling to see how 'sleet across the highest of ground' is of any relevance whatsoever and posted the following on why this has received so much coverage from other forecasters who incorrectly insisted that a cool and wet start to summer was on the cards only several days ago.
https://www.facebook.com/100063588901621/posts/965857802210508/
I also covered in the above posting why this would only be a temporary cooler spell (1 dayish) and any wintry weather, if at all, is likely to be sleet across the highest ground.
Additionally, why do some questionable sleet showers across the highest ground require so much coverage from elsewhere when the past several snow events from earlier this year to lower levels (2024) were literally written off and missed (bar our own forecasts) with no snow warnings ever issued or until the last minute in the following links and snow images below?
https://www.facebook.com/100063588901621/posts/920029486793340/
https://www.facebook.com/100063588901621/posts/919840330145589/
https://www.facebook.com/100063588901621/posts/916460737150215/
https://www.facebook.com/100063588901621/posts/901133555349600/
https://www.facebook.com/100063588901621/posts/885947973534825/
https://www.facebook.com/100063588901621/posts/864626682333621/
However, any cooler and showery weather is set to be short-lived for in and around midweek (as previously covered) as better weather conditions persist across more southern areas, setting up a bit of a north and south divide for a day or two, but with a quick return to an improving trend for many from in and around Thursday.
Additionally, this improving trend also looks set to see high pressure returning across our shores for in and around the upcoming weekend and early next week and in the run up to mid-month (moderate to even higher confidence of late), and this could see something much warmer to hot developing within this period and within the next several days. #WatchThisSpace
This is also something we have been covering repeatedly as a moderate confidence weather or heat event for these exact dates over the past several weeks.
The following update from the weekend also stated the following in reference to this week's forecast and projections from elsewhere:
"Finally, beyond this, we will actually see it turning warm to potentially hot once again as the 'pattern change' continues into next week and in the run-up to and around mid-month at the very least."
https://www.facebook.com/100063588901621/posts/965857802210508/
More enhanced forecast details are to follow on this shortly.
James Madden: Exacta Weather (03/06/2024 - 06:00)
Our several-week in advance summer 2024 forecast covered a potentially decent and warm start to summer this year and when temperatures approached the mid-20s in places over the weekend, plus more to come later this week and in and around mid-June.
On cue pattern change to warm and settled in time for summer (sometimes hot; see below), plus how long will it last and how warm or hot will it get?
In essence, the on-cue arrival of high pressure in the coming days will be influential on bringing settled and warm to sometimes hot weather conditions over the next several days (I will explain below), throughout this weekend, and up until around the middle part of next week at the very least.
This high pressure area and current pattern change were also something that NO other forecasters or main computer models were indicating until recently, and it is surely a welcomed feature for everyone across the UK and Ireland after several months of predominantly unsettled weather and almost persistent rain at times. How the current high pressure is set to be situated won't allow for any extreme or very hot temperatures in this developing scenario.
However, we can still expect temperatures to touch or exceed a warm 20 Celsius quite widely from this weekend, and the warmest spots in parts of southern England and Scotland could easily reach around or hit the mid-20s over the next several days (warm to hot for the time of the year and a good several degrees above the June 19C average, plus the forecast range on my part for this period was always 'warm' to 'hot').
Unfortunately, this is something that the various third-party weather apps are currently underestimating in terms of seasonal influences and the strength of the sun at this time of the year on the actual day, and you can therefore add at least another 2-3 Celsius to their current projections, particularly from in and around Sunday, when it is likely to become very warm for many in some periods of early and strong summer sunshine.
Looking further ahead and past the middle part of next week, we have a number of possible options according to the main third-party computer models. These options include a continuation of the warm and settled conditions for at least several days with something potentially even hotter for in and around mid-month or earlier (temps potentially approaching 30 °C or more widely) as more of an influential and potential very hot or extreme heat producing Azores high pressure area becomes more influential across our shores instead. (moderate confidence in this particular but persistent heat event for several weeks within our own long-range projections.)
The next and much less preferred option in my forecasting opinion is for a cool to cold northerly to develop with some periods of unsettled weather, but we still expect these forecast expectations to dissipate further over the next several days and come around to a continuation of our warm to hot and settled weather conditions continuing for another several days at the very least.
Our forecasts from last week also correctly stated the following in reference to this week, when there were no such indications from elsewhere (third parties or main computer models):
"Next week is therefore highly likely to see high pressure dominating, and by the mid-to-end part of the working week, we are now more likely to see some very warm to hot temperatures developing for many parts of the UK and Ireland."
https://m.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=959931832803105&id=100063588901621
I am going away for a small break with my daughter for the next few days, but enjoy the on-cue pattern change as we say goodbye to the rain for now as some much warmer and settled weather with well above-average temperatures develops for the foreseeable future and over the next several days to around mid-month at the very least. 🌞 (as there is also some unfortunate, very plain, and unsettled weather in the wings for this summer.) 😢
Further details on this summer, plus key dates for weather events available for free, can be found in the link below (including the currently arriving weather event for these exact dates from several weeks ahead):
https://exactaweather.com/summer-2024-free-report
James Madden: Exacta Weather (30/05/2024 05:12)
Seasonal and 6-month ahead reports up to December 2024 via our homepage for those who require weather reports for further ahead below:
And would that be most, if not all, of the main third-party computer models showing a significant build of high pressure and rising temperatures across our shores from in and around Friday of this week?
The various third-party weather apps are now also starting to recognise this, but they are still underestimating the maximum temperatures of around the mid to high 20s quite widely, at the very least.
Our following Facebook update from last week also stated all of the following in reference to this and to expect these changes for in and around THURSDAY onwards of THIS WEEK, despite a complete and major U-turn from most of the main third-party computer models at the time of my forecast posting.
"High pressure and steamy temperatures will hit again within days (around next THURSDAY or earlier)."
"These projections for some notable heat to develop have been far more consistent in terms of stronger signals than any of the other options on the table and are our preferred scenario by quite some distance for what is likely to develop during NEXT WEEK, late May, and into early June on the basis of our own forecast projections and in terms of another major and on-cue heatwave event in terms of our long-range weather forecasts for the UK and Ireland."
"NEXT WEEK is therefore highly likely to see high pressure dominating, and by the mid-to-end part of the working week, we are now more likely to see some very warm to hot temperatures developing for many parts of the UK and Ireland."
https://m.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=959931832803105&id=100063588901621
Additionally, the following update prior to the weekend also stated the following in regard to the main third-party computer models resolving themselves:
"Have a great bank holiday weekend, all, and let the main third-party computer models and weather apps solve themselves! 🌞"
https://www.facebook.com/100063588901621/posts/960672232729065/
The additional national news article (Daily Mirror) also stated the following for this period and forecast range from a number of weeks ago:
James Madden, at Exacta Weather, said:
"Additionally, there are also some very extreme runs for heat coming through for this final third of this month and into EARLY JUNE, and this particular period and weather scenario for a HEATWAVE is something we have been covering for these EXACT DATES over the past SEVERAL MONTHS in our spring forecast and over the past several weeks in our summer forecast for around EARLY JUNE."
"We should be in full recognition of these high pressure rises across the UK and Ireland with some good cross-model agreement on this, which looks to be perfectly primed for arrival during next week and in time for the spring bank holiday weekend and to BEGIN the meteorological summer and JUNE at present."
https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/uk-weather-400-mile-5-32830412
More to follow on this shortly...
James Madden: Exacta Weather (27/05/24 - 06:00)