Exacta Weather - UK Short Range Forecast
Indian Summer Returning On Cue From This Weekend + Very HOT To Extreme Heat Also Set To Arrive For The UK & Ireland Within Days!!!
The well-promised area of significant high pressure will now start to influence our weather from this weekend, and some prolonged periods of sunshine and settled weather will begin to kick in across some large parts of the UK and Ireland.
This will more than likely result in warmer conditions than are currently being projected from elsewhere on the actual day, particularly across the southern half of the country on Sunday, when it could start to become warm to hot in these parts and some locations further north.
From around Monday and through to around Thursday or Friday of next week, we will then see this high pressure intensifying across our shores to produce some very hot to extreme heat for the UK and Ireland, and a pinnacle point of this particular heat surge and for the most extreme of temperatures can be expected to develop within this period, particularly for the Monday to Wednesday period (September 16-18).
To sum up the potential temperature types in this period, they do look continually very hot to extreme across all computer models, especially for the start of autumn and September.
The lower end of the scale will see maximum temperatures in the low to mid 30s in the hottest spots of the south of the UK to begin with, whilst the higher end could see temperatures ranging in the mid to high 30s at the very least.
These types of temperatures are also unlikely to just be restricted to parts of the south of the UK on this occasion, and as this high pressure cell moves further north and intensifies across our shores, many parts of England, Wales, Scotland, and Ireland will all experience some quite intense heat in the mid to high 20s to low 30s at the very least.
Additionally, parts to the north and in Ireland and Scotland could actually become hotter than parts further south and the capital (London) on certain days as this heat surge peaks during this period next week, and despite the sting being potentially taken out of the extreme temperatures towards the end of the working week, some usable and summery weather could also continue for a number of days afterwards (just not as hot or extreme as previous days and bringing this potentially to 7-9 days in duration).
So throughout this weekend and most of the working week during next week is at least 5-7 days of varying warm to hot to extreme heat to some then potentially less hot but extra summery days to follow (this could therefore be termed a PROLONGED and SIGNIFICANT period of Indian summer weather and warm to hot to extreme heat).
The following and earlier Daily Mirror article that predicted the last heat surge during last week also stated: Madden also reckons temperatures could surge again later in the month, with "another major and moderate to high confidence pressure build" coming for "in and around September 18, possibly a little earlier." Madden said: "This would have the potential to bring even hotter temperatures across our shores than the current warm to hot period."
https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/uk-weather-exact-dates-twin-33594892
Additionally, an even earlier Yahoo News article that also predicted the last heat surge stated the following in reference to potential September temperature records being broken for the UK and Ireland (the early September heat surge fell short of any record temperatures, but this one will be much closer and hotter in comparison):
Exacta Weather forecaster James Madden is anticipating an even hotter scenario, suggesting that these "very warm conditions" could turn into a "significant heat event." He says temperatures might soar past the all-time September record, which stands at 35.6C (set in Bawtry, South Yorkshire, in 1906).
"There is also growing confidence in possible record September temperatures in parts of Ireland (29.1C) and Northern Ireland (28C). Unfortunately, forecasting confidence is less confident about the Scotland September record of 32.2C from 1906 (118 years) being breached."
https://uk.style.yahoo.com/uk-heatwave-could-break-118-114449814.html
An additional Daily Star article also stated:
James Madden at Exacta Weather has gone as far as NAMING the EXACT date we're in for more scorching weather. The expert wrote, in an update on Facebook: “Hot weather potential is returning for the exact dates of September 18, possibly a little earlier—something we expect to intensify further around these dates. “This would have the potential to bring even hotter temperatures across our shores than the last warm to hot period during last week."
https://www.dailystar.co.uk/news/latest-news/weather-forecaster-names-exact-date-33610810
We have also gained nearly 250K views on our top 3 X viral videos plus thousands of likes for our previously correct heat surges and the pending one in our first several weeks on a new platform (TikTok). ❤️
https://www.tiktok.com/@exactaweather?_t=8pazJ9fY4tU&_r=1
Additionally, just to reassure everyone that a major hot to extreme heat event is in the offing, below are the other six heat events that occurred for the exact dates since June of this year, and regardless of duration, they still occurred and were all much hotter than standard meteorology and TV forecasts ever indicated (making myself look wrong). Plus proof of this offered below (dated links).
These were all additionally followed up with shorter range forecasts that pinpointed the exact day of arrival in most instances, or give or take a day or two.
1. The late June heat surge with temperatures hitting 30°C and the first hottest day of the year/summer from 4 weeks in advance. ✅
The start of summer was also warm over a few days, with temperatures hitting 24°C in the far north and south (something not shown in the apps or other forecasts in the days prior, but also not as hot or extensive as I had expected or forecast). ❌
2. The late July and early August heatwaves x 2 also arrived for the exact and almost exact dates and reregistered the hottest day of the year twice from 12-14 weeks in advance. ✅✅
3. The next heat surge for in and around August 10 from several weeks ahead also occurred on the exact dates with temperatures hitting a very hot 34.8C (not very far from the mid to high 30s after all and something never forecast from elsewhere). ✅
https://www.facebook.com/100063588901621/posts/1013617134101241/
4. The next heat surge during late August then also occurred for in and around August 25 with temperatures exceeding 30°C once again (something never forecast from elsewhere). ✅
5. The most recent heat surge during early September also occurred on time and brought temperatures close to 30°C on consecutive days once again (something never forecast from elsewhere). ✅
6. Another high confidence and potentially the hottest and most widespread heat surge of them all, and number seven of the summer and autumn seasons on my part is now looking extremely favourable over several days at the very least for the UK and Ireland for in and around September 18, possibly a little earlier. ✅❓
https://exactaweather.com/summer-2024-free-report
https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/exact-date-uk-bask-scorching-33061268
https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/uk-faces-high-30cs-heatwave-33239125.amp
https://www.facebook.com/100063588901621/posts/995325239263764/?app=fbl
https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/uk-weather-exact-date-next-33490607
https://www.facebook.com/100063588901621/posts/1013617134101241/
https://www.gbnews.com/weather/uk-hot-weather-sun-autumn-september-2024
https://www.facebook.com/100063588901621/posts/1033258252137129/
https://www.birminghammail.co.uk/news/midlands-news/uk-set-indian-summer-september-29550505.amp
https://www.facebook.com/100063588901621/posts/1032900622172892/
https://uk.style.yahoo.com/twin-september-heatwaves-could-see-152832730.html
https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/uk-weather-exact-dates-twin-33594892
https://www.dailystar.co.uk/news/latest-news/weather-forecaster-names-exact-date-33610810
https://www.tiktok.com/@exactaweather?_t=8pazJ9fY4tU&_r=1
Unfortunately, towards month end it looks like bringing a return to some much cooler and more unsettled weather conditions at times that could bring some further wintry weather in addition to the on-cue arrival of the first snow of the season in the Cairngorms yesterday (image available below).
Happy Friday, everyone, and enjoy the impending hot to extreme heat, but also take care and check on those more vulnerable...
Regards,
James Madden: Exacta Weather
(September 13, 2024 - 01:00)
Rest of autumn and into early winter (Oct-Jan) detailed subscriber reports x 4 are now only 12.00 to reflect one less report from September.
More unsettled and thundery plus much cooler with wintry weather across the highest ground plus details of the next expected 'high confidence' heat surge...
Unfortunately, the expected unsettled and thundery weather has started to kick in a bit as of now and a little earlier than around the Tuesday to Wednesday period we had expected earlier in the week (the weather deviates sometimes everyone, and the number SIX heat surge on our part since June occurred again and was much hotter than expected from elsewhere).
Additionally, I have also stated many times that thunderstorms are OFTEN part and parcel of heat surges.
Just in case none of the other forecasters posted it yesterday, but temperatures exceeded a hot 28°C once again.
However, certain parts have still seen some warm temperatures in the low 20s in places throughout today and in parts as far north as Scotland that have missed the thundery outbreaks across large parts down the spine and centre of the country.
Additionally, it will be midweek (Wednesday) before things turn really grim, and there will also be a significant drop in temperatures prior to the next heat surge.
It may even turn cool enough for some non-significant wintry weather across the very highest of ground at times between Tuesday and Thursday, but particularly more around Thursday.
However, just to reaffirm the upcoming heat situation and take nothing away from it, the latest GFS run continues to look hot for the UK and Ireland for our exact dates or slightly earlier, plus all previous runs were even hotter (what I expect to occur and trust these more).
Just to also say, I don't need to check the third-party model projections as regularly now for these dates, only maybe nearer the time to judge intensity against my own projections.
Unfortunately, some very unsettled and cooler weather was always on the cards prior to this, and give or take a few days on my part (I really do my best to try and ignore apps and TV forecasts and will not always be seeing what you guys are, if that makes sense).
Our update at the start of the week also indicated this before any other forecasts by stating:
"Some potentially unsettled and thundery weather may also creep in temporarily during later next week and prior to the next heat surge, and also beyond this during the second half of the month, when we expect something quite different to develop at times."
https://www.facebook.com/100063588901621/posts/1033258252137129/
The following Yahoo news article that predicted the most recent heat surge, also stated the following in reference to this unsettled weather and the next expected major heat surge:
He also thinks temperatures could surge again later in the month. This is due to "another major and moderate to high confidence pressure build" coming "in and around September 18."
Madden continued: "This would have the potential to bring even hotter temperatures across our shores than the current warm to hot period."
However, he added: "Some potentially unsettled and thundery weather may also creep in temporarily during later next week and prior to the next heat surge."
https://uk.style.yahoo.com/twin-september-heatwaves-could-see-152832730.html
▶️ 100K views plus and counting on our second September heatwave posting (our most viewed video) plus our SEVENTH heat surge for on or almost the exact dates since June...
Proof links and several week-ahead Daily Mirror articles proof of all previous SIX heat surges to follow...
https://vm.tiktok.com/ZGewoPa5J/
Our dated and several month ahead posting from around this time last year correctly predicted not one but at least three SSW events in November, January, and February (a very rare occurrence)...
https://www.facebook.com/share/p/ky24vhpZH3ioyBpV/
Half price Autumn/Early Winter/First Snow Day 🍂❄️☃️ 19.00 to only 9.50 x 4 reports Ends Soon!
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This is currently the only section that is monetised via Exacta Weather, and any revenue generated will simply be reinvested in trying to cover running costs and future free services via the website or apps.
This works out at less than £2.50 per report for 4 reports in total and is for those in need of a longer-range forecast for business or commercial requirements.
James Madden: Exacta Weather
08/09/2024
Turning HOT again as Indian summer and major early September heat arrive on cue for the UK and Ireland plus another major heatwave for in and around 18th!
A major area of high pressure and rising temperatures will now start to work in across the UK and Ireland throughout tomorrow and over the next several days.
Initially the temperatures will begin to become warm to hot across large parts of the country, and by Friday we could easily see temperatures in the mid to high 20s developing across some large swathes of the country at the very least, particularly in parts of north west, central, southern England, Wales, and to the west of Scotland.
Parts of Ireland will also see maximum temperatures in at least the low to mid-20s or higher developing.
This overall pattern will persist for at least several days and up to the mid part of next week with varying hot to warm temperatures for most, and temperatures in excess of 30°C or higher can't be ruled out in certain spots with any last minute and likely intensifications from in and around Thursday/Friday and over the days to follow.
This might or might not fall a little short of the low to mid 30s on this occasion for these reasons, and had the joint high pressure from the mid-Atlantic and the south of the country developed as we had expected, then these types of temperatures would not even be in question for this period.
However, our own forecasts are now also in recognition of another major and moderate to high confidence pressure build from the south of the country to make up for this for in and around 18th September, possibly a little earlier, and this would have the potential to bring even hotter temperatures across our shores than the current warm to hot period.
Some potentially unsettled and thundery weather may also creep in temporarily during later next week and prior to the next heat surge, and also beyond this during the second half of the month, when we expect something quite different to develop at times.
Three days ago, one of our regular and main followers asked us about how unsettled the apps and forecasts were from elsewhere for the foreseeable future, to which I answered:
"They are ALL (other forecasters) significantly underestimating how HOT it will become midweek and are also giving too much credit to the UNSETTLED weather with it being a mid-Atlantic high in development (can sometimes do this and I'm not saying there won't be any unsettled weather/thunderstorms to follow)."
"Additionally, we haven't made any public claims regarding September as of yet, with an exception for the early September heat, and our forecast actually indicates something very different in the second half of the month."
"However, I am having to change the way that my certain long-range forecast information is put out there from now on due to clear misuse from elsewhere and also clear copying from elsewhere."
"Additionally, it also isn't fair on the existing subscribers or people who have recently paid for the report."
"I hope this helps, and thank you for your kind comments about my forecast and their overall accuracy; it is very much appreciated."
"PS: Anyone else who requires further details for September must subscribe like the others have, as it is not fair on them or how others use it to copy my hard work."
https://exactaweather.com/autumn-and-winter-2024%2F25
The earlier GB News article from last week also stated:
James Madden, forecaster for Exacta Weather, said: “Weather models are showing some hot to extremely hot temperature developments through the START of SEPTEMBER, with MID-30Cs or HIGHER possible at the peak.
“There is now some quite HIGH confidence in this coming off, with forecast projections repeating the same outcomes for this period.
“This is looking like a SIGNIFICANT weather event for the UK.”
https://www.gbnews.com/weather/uk-hot-weather-sun-autumn-september-2024
Additionally, an even earlier Daily Mirror article also stated:
Exacta Weather forecaster James Madden says, "The expected heat surges are now HIGHLY LIKELY to be SIGNIFICANT throughout late August and WELL into SEPTEMBER, and there is no reason as to why we couldn't see further extreme temperatures in AT LEAST the low to mid-30Cs during these developments."
https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/uk-weather-exact-date-next-33490607
The following much earlier posting from a few weeks back also stated:
"The app projections in terms of temperatures and how unsettled they are throughout the next week and into EARLY SEPTEMBER are way off what we will be seeing in reality in terms of much hotter temperature values and settled and drier/sunny conditions."
We have been here many times before; in fact, this will be the FIFTH consecutive time that this has occurred since late June to present.
James Madden: Exacta Weather
03/09/2024, 04:00
Autumn (Sept-Dec) and winter 2024/25 forecast details are available to view within the subscriber reports below, covering up to early 2025:
https://exactaweather.com/autumn-and-winter-2024%2F25
A review of our summer heat events and summer 2024 forecast, plus dated proof...
Our long-range forecast for summer 2024 issued in early April (see dated original below) clearly and repeatedly depicted a more prolonged and predominant run of cooler and unsettled weather throughout the first half of summer this year (June and into July).
https://exactaweather.com/summer-2024-free-report
However, our revised forecast for June during late May (4 weeks ahead and still a long-range forecast in itself, when there were no such indications from elsewhere in the days prior) also correctly identified the mid- to late-June heat surge, the first hottest day of summer, and the year to date with temperatures reaching 30°C for the first time this year.
https://www.facebook.com/100063588901621/posts/960691106060511/?app=fbl
https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/exact-date-uk-bask-scorching-33061268
We once again reverted to a more predominant cooler and unsettled period within our reports (now 9–10 weeks ahead).
However, all of our forecast updates still insisted on high-risk developments for our "high confidence" period of predominantly warm to hot temperatures for the exact dates of arrival during July (now 12–13 weeks ahead of occurrence).
The end product also resulted in two major heat surges within several days of each other for the given and "high confidence" dates, plus the hottest day of the summer and year to date being reregistered on multiple occasions once again.
The following detailed and dated update (website and Facebook) then went on to correctly cover the late July/early August heat surge from 4 weeks in advance, whilst additionally correctly identifying another even "higher confidence" heat surge for in and around August 10.
The end product also re-registered the hottest day of the summer and year once again with some extreme temperatures of 34.8°C (something the apps were out by for up to 10°C in the days before occurrence).
The detailed update stated the following about all of this in some quite concise detail and these bonus heatwaves, so to speak:
"The next opportunity of much 'higher' confidence then repeatedly showed in our forecasts for several weeks for in and around August 10, and the overall period of August 10-15 due to a strong area of high pressure pushing in across our shores (UK and Ireland)."
"It is important to note that these potential heatwaves or heat surges in August were bonus heatwaves, so to speak, and were not actually part of our original long-range summer forecast, for which we had expected a quick reversion to the predominant cooler and unsettled conditions of much of the summer to date once again."
"However, as with the mid-to-late June heat surge with temperatures exceeding 30°C, which we identified and repeated from late May onwards due to some earlier and repeated forecast indicators that were not in our original projections (still a long range forecast in itself), and this one was pretty much the same for this in and around August 10."
https://www.facebook.com/100063588901621/posts/995325239263764/?app=fbl
The following national news article (Daily Mirror) also went on to cover the exact dates for all THREE heat surges in early July (again, when there were no such indications from elsewhere).
https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/uk-faces-high-30cs-heatwave-33239125.amp
Importantly, the start of summer did also bring some sort of warm and settled spell over a number of days to begin with, as we had expected. Additionally, this was also something that was not being shown only the days before from elsewhere, with temperatures hitting a warm 24°C (not as warm or hot as the high 20s I expected, but also not a bad call from several weeks in advance under the circumstances).
Additionally, our long-range forecast also correctly opted for around average temperatures in June and above-average temperatures in July.
This is also clearly depicted as correct within the Met Office's very own data for June and July within the oldest recorded temperature dataset in the world (mean CET).
https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html
August also brought a largely unsettled and at times cool month for many, in exception of the expected and exact dates for our fourth and fifth consecutive on-cue heat surges during early and late August.
Temperatures actually came in above average for August in terms of the mean CET due to these bonus heat surges and is the only real slight error of any kind within our long-range forecast for summer 2024 (expected more near average temperatures overall), plus the additional bonus heatwaves that we provided extra forecast information for on top of our original report for the exact or almost exact dates from up to several weeks ahead of occurring, and still a long range weather forecast in itself.
🎯 🎯 🎯 🎯 🎯
James Madden: Exacta Weather
Autumn (Sept - Dec) and winter 2024/25 forecast details are available to view within the subscriber reports below, covering up to early 2025:
https://exactaweather.com/autumn-and-winter-2024%2F25
Record September heat for the UK and Ireland?
Our current forecast projections and those of other third parties (computer models) are consistently showing some hot to extreme temperature developments during the next week and throughout early September (mid to high 30s possible at the peak).
The all-time record from 1906 (118 years) of 35.6C could therefore be at risk or notably breached during the early part of September on the basis of some quite high confidence and repeated forecast projections for this period.
There is also growing confidence in possible record September temperatures in parts of Ireland (29.1°C) and Northern Ireland (28°C).
Unfortunately, forecasting confidence is less confident about the Scotland September record of 32.2°C from 1906 (118 years) being breached, but it may go close if things continue to develop as expected over the coming weeks.
I did a forced check of the current BBC and Met Office apps in the past 24 hours plus screenshots for later, and they had temperatures no higher than 24°C for London and 19–20°C for my own location further north in Lancashire during this early September period.
The following Daily Mirror from earlier in the month also stated:
Exacta Weather forecaster James Madden said:
"Signals are ever-increasing for the hot to very hot weather to return during LATE AUGUST."
He pinpointed August 20 to August 25 (most likely around the 25th, as in our dated updates) as when this "major heat surge" will likely come.
Madden also said these "high pressure rises" could continue into SEPTEMBER.
https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/uk-weather-exact-dates-second-33445615
An additional Daily Mirror article also stated and repeated the following forecast information:
"The expected heat surges are now highly likely to be SIGNIFICANT throughout LATE AUGUST and well into SEPTEMBER, and there is no reason as to why we couldn't see further extreme temperatures in at least the low to mid-30Cs during these developments."
https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/uk-weather-exact-date-next-33490607
An additional Birmingham Mail article also stated the following in reference to last week and the coming weeks:
James Madden, from Exacta Weather, said:
"This week will continue to be varied and continue with the heavy downpours and autumnal weather (breezy to windy) in among some sunny intervals for many until around SUNDAY, when we WILL start to see the FIRST SIGNS of this PATTERN CHANGE taking effect as high pressure and SIGNIFICANT high pressure work northwards across our shores for at least 80–90% of the coming 1-2 WEEKS at the very least."
https://www.birminghammail.co.uk/news/midlands-news/uk-issued-rare-black-weather-29786654
The following dated website, Facebook, and TikTok updates from early August stated:
"There are now some increasing and strengthening signals within our OWN forecast projections for another major heat surge during LATE AUGUST or for a SIGNIFICANT PATTERN SWITCH to develop over several days 'in and around August 25', possibly a little earlier."
"FOUR consecutive heat surges have occurred for almost or on the exact dates on our part throughout this summer in repeated reports and updates dating anywhere from 4 to 16 weeks in advance, which therefore increases confidence to something moderately higher for this next period."
"We therefore EXPECT another hot to very hot period from another high pressure build to gain strength for around August 20–25, particularly for in and around AUGUST 25."
"Additionally, these high pressure rises are of even greater confidence to continue into SEPTEMBER at times, but with some notable caveats that have been covered in the autumn of 2024 and subscriber reports in greater detail for this period."
https://www.facebook.com/100063588901621/posts/1017138380415783
Our significantly earlier than anyone else forecast projections for September, Indian summer, and the exact timing of the previous heatwaves (see dated news image from Birmingham Mail):
https://www.birminghammail.co.uk/news/midlands-news/uk-set-indian-summer-september-29550505.amp
To clear up any confusion about the incoming hot to extreme and potentially record early September temperatures.
Today (August 25), high pressure HAS started to nudge across southern England and will continue to do so and intensify to some HOT days throughout the coming days and the next week for before and after a brief battle with low pressure around midweek.
It then starts to turn even HOTTER for all from in and around THURSDAY 29th onwards and well into September (slightly out with the exact timings for the fifth consecutive heat surge of the summer to date on our part and for a tricky forecasting period but also still within clear range for LATE AUGUST and EARLY SEPTEMBER).
A few days out in comparison to those who are still not in recognition of this and it will be HOT in places prior to Thursday...
Additionally, our posting and update from earlier this month stated:
"There are now some increasing and strengthening signals within our OWN forecast projections for another major heat surge during LATE AUGUST or for a 'significant pattern switch' to develop over at least several days or more IN AND AROUND August 25 (including Ireland)."
https://www.facebook.com/100063588901621/posts/1017138380415783/
The following dated website and Facebook posting from earlier this week also stated:
"My preferred, higher confidence, and MAIN option is for a pattern switch to more warm to hot weather of sorts to take place during the latter part of this weekend (August 25), before a brief interruption in places for in and around our expected long range dates above from this next expected storm (27–28)."
"This significant pattern switch then really takes a stronghold (HIGH to very high confidence) and sends temperatures soaring further across large parts of the UK and Ireland BEYOND THIS and to some very hot to now extreme values for EARLY SEPTEMBER (mid 30s in places at the least, other parts further north, and Ireland more mid to high 20s at the very least)."
"We will START to see the FIRST SIGNS of this pattern change taking effect as high pressure and significant high pressure work northwards across our shores for at least 80–90% of the coming 1-2 weeks at the very least."
https://www.facebook.com/100063588901621/posts/1023078523155102/
A final and detailed posting from recent days covering this and also stating:
"Beyond next THURSDAY (August 29) and for a prolonged period well into September (up to 2 weeks), we will then see high pressure really taking over to send this low pressure packing, and temperatures will soar further to some very hot to extreme values across large parts of the UK and, on this occasion, Ireland, for what is officially late summer (late August) and early autumn (early September)."
"It is plausible that temperatures could reach as high as the mid-30s or higher in more southern and eastern areas of the UK during these developments, while even parts much further north of central, southern, and eastern England could see highs in the high 20s at the very least (something the apps are currently largely underestimating due to the low pressure interference around midweek)."
https://www.facebook.com/100063588901621/posts/1025375102925444/
James Madden: Exacta Weather
25/08/2024, 18:00
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The first expected snow dates of this autumn and winter 2024/25 are now available to view within the subscriber reports below: ❄️☃️🌨️
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Exactly how and when the incoming hot weather, heatwave, and extreme heat will take shape over the coming days ☀️🥵🔥
The on-time pattern switch will start taking shape tomorrow, plus some brief on-cue stormy weather will also impact some before temperatures soar on-cue for all! (UK and Ireland).
From tomorrow (Sunday, August 25) and throughout Monday, we will begin to see high pressure rising across our shores, and with this will come a rise in temperatures.
Initially, more southern areas will see temperatures jumping back into the low to mid 20s in the best of the sunshine over the coming days, before temperatures really ramp up from around Tuesday into the high 20s in places at the very least, and even 30°C–32°C or more is likely in some spots during the middle of next week.
Even parts much further north will see temperatures ranging into the mid to high 20s in places, at the very least in the late summer sunshine, within this period.
However, low pressure will come very close for a brief period to the far north of Scotland and Ireland during around the middle of next week and could have some of these parts wondering what the fuss with the heat is all about when they may feel briefly and temporarily autumnal and more unsettled for in and around the Tuesday to Thursday period of next week.
It could also suppress temperatures briefly for a day or two in some other spots from being much hotter than they could have been during such high pressure rises.
An additional concern for myself is how these types of weather systems or lows can sometimes result in some subsidiary weather systems or additional lows being formed during occurrences, which is still something that requires some additional monitoring for any last-minute changes over the coming 48 hours.
Additionally, our 16-week advance subscriber forecast also opted for a potential stormy period for these EXACT dates in August.
https://exactaweather.com/summer-2024-free-report
Our earlier dated updates below also stated the following in reference to this:
"However, we still feel there is some validity and at least moderate confidence within our original forecast and claims for a potentially brief but notable stormy period to develop for in and around these dates from our 16-week in advance forecast projections (August 27–28 and allow for 1-2 days deviation)."
"This would or may briefly and temporarily interrupt the predominant summery warm to hot and settled weather of the coming weeks, and we do need to allow for deviations sometimes within the weather."
"Additionally, the correctly predicted BONUS heat surge for earlier in the month and the upcoming ones were also bonus heatwaves for August that were initially flagged up in our several weeks ahead of occurrence projections, whereas this potentially stormy period has featured consistently throughout our projections, making this a more difficult scenario than usual to call out for myself."
"However, my preferred, higher confidence, and main option is for a pattern switch to more warm to hot weather of sorts to take place during the latter part of this weekend (August 25), before a brief interruption in and around our expected long range dates above from this next expected storm (27–28)."
"This significant pattern switch then really takes a stronghold (high to very high confidence) and sends temperatures soaring further across large parts of the UK and Ireland beyond this and to some very hot to now extreme values for early September (mid 30s in places at the least, other parts further north, and Ireland more mid to high 20s at the very least)."
"We WILL start to see the first signs of this pattern change taking effect as high pressure and significant high pressure work northwards across our shores for at least 80–90% of the coming 1-2 weeks at the very least."
https://www.facebook.com/100063588901621/posts/995325239263764/?app=fbl
Beyond next Thursday and for a prolonged period well into September (up to 2 weeks), we will then see high pressure really taking over to send this low pressure packing, and temperatures will soar further to some very hot to extreme values across large parts of the UK and, on this occasion, Ireland, for what is officially late summer (late August) and early autumn (early September).
It is plausible that temperatures could reach as high as the mid-30s or higher in more southern and eastern areas of the UK during these developments, while even parts much further north of central, southern, and eastern England could see highs in the high 20s at the very least (something the apps are currently largely underestimating due to the low pressure interference around midweek).
Our posting and update from much earlier this month, titled: "Hot to very hot weather is set to return around AUGUST 25 and into SEPTEMBER for the UK and Ireland," and also stated:
"There are now some increasing and strengthening signals within our own forecast projections for another major heat surge during late August or for a 'significant pattern switch' to develop over at least several days or more in and around August 25 (including Ireland)."
https://www.facebook.com/100063588901621/posts/1017138380415783/
The Daily Mirror article from earlier last month (July) also stated the following in reference to this plus the exact or almost exact dates of the previous THREE heat surges:
https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/uk-faces-high-30cs-heatwave-33239125.amp
Our significantly earlier than anyone else forecast projections for September and autumn (early summer) and the exact timing of the previous heatwaves:
https://www.birminghammail.co.uk/news/midlands-news/uk-set-indian-summer-september-29550505.amp
https://exactaweather.com/autumn-and-winter-2024%2F25
Have a great bank holiday weekend, everyone!
James Madden (24/08/2024, 05:32)
The first expected snow dates of this autumn and winter 2024/25 are now available to view within the subscriber reports below: ❄️☃️🌨️
Prolonged late UK and Ireland summer heat and extreme heatwaves/Indian Summer is now on + a stormy blip?🌞
There is a significant pattern switch to bring (warm to hot) and potentially extreme temperatures for weeks to the UK and Ireland, but will there be a brief interruption for a potential storm to arrive on cue?
There are now some even more intensified and excellent signals within repeated GFS runs for a significant pattern change back to summery weather to now occur over a number of weeks from in and around Sunday of this week, with temperatures varying between some predominantly warm to very hot to extreme temperatures during late August and well into September.
Our posting and update from earlier this month, titled:
"Hot to very hot weather is set to return around AUGUST 25 and into SEPTEMBER for the UK and Ireland," and stated:
"There are now some increasing and strengthening signals within our own forecast projections for another major heat surge during late August or for a 'significant pattern switch' to develop over at least several days or more in and around August 25 (including Ireland)."
https://www.facebook.com/100063588901621/posts/1017138380415783/
Our significantly earlier than anyone else forecast projections for September and autumn (early summer) and the exact timing of the previous heatwaves:
https://www.birminghammail.co.uk/news/midlands-news/uk-set-indian-summer-september-29550505.amp
https://exactaweather.com/autumn-and-winter-2024%2F25
Our long-range forecast from early April (4 months ahead) also covered a potentially stormy and quite autumnal period for dates not a million miles away from the current setup and particularly more so during much of the second half of August.
https://exactaweather.com/summer-2024-free-report
However, we still feel there is some validity and at least moderate confidence within our original forecast and claims for a potentially brief but notable stormy period to develop for in and around these dates from our 16-week in advance forecast projections (August 27–28 and allow for 1-2 days deviation).
https://exactaweather.com/summer-2024-free-report
This would or may briefly and temporarily interrupt the predominant summery warm to hot and settled weather of the coming weeks, and we do need to allow for deviations sometimes within the weather.
However, we also need to consider that this particular stormy period has been consistent with our long-range weather forecast projections for quite some time for this exact period and what could be the almost exact dates of expected development for this next one, as with the previous long-range projections for the incoming September heat surges.
https://exactaweather.com/summer-2024-free-report
https://exactaweather.com/autumn-and-winter-2024%2F25
Additionally, the correctly predicted BONUS heat surge for earlier in the month and the upcoming ones were also bonus heatwaves for August that were initially flagged up in our several weeks ahead of occurrence projections, whereas this potentially stormy period has featured consistently throughout our projections, making this a more difficult scenario than usual to call out for myself.
Our much earlier and dated update (still a long-range forecast in itself) also stated the following in reference to this and additionally correctly identified the timing of the last heatwave within the same post below.
"It is important to note that these potential heatwaves or heat surges in August are BONUS heatwaves, so to speak, and were not actually part of our original long-range summer forecast, for which we had expected a quick reversion to the predominant cooler and unsettled conditions of much of the summer to date once again."
https://www.facebook.com/100063588901621/posts/995325239263764/?app=fbl
However, my preferred, higher confidence, and main option is for a pattern switch to more warm to hot weather of sorts to take place during the latter part of this weekend (August 25), before a brief interruption in and around our expected long range dates above from this next expected storm (27–28).
This significant pattern switch then really takes a stronghold (high to very high confidence) and sends temperatures soaring further across large parts of the UK and Ireland beyond this and to some very hot to now extreme values for early September (mid 30s in places at the least, other parts further north, and Ireland more mid to high 20s at the very least).
The Daily Mirror article from earlier last month (July) also stated the following in reference to this plus the exact or almost exact dates of the previous THREE heat surges:
Madden reckons the second half of August will bring "some much cooler and unsettled weather."
https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/uk-faces-high-30cs-heatwave-33239125.amp
This week will continue to be varied and continue with the heavy downpours and autumnal weather (breezy to windy) in among some sunny intervals for many until around Sunday, when we WILL start to see the first signs of this pattern change taking effect as high pressure and significant high pressure work northwards across our shores for at least 80–90% of the coming 1-2 weeks at the very least.
James Madden: Exacta Weather
21/08/2024, 05:00
The first expected snow dates of this autumn and winter 2024/25 are now available to view within the subscriber reports below: ❄️☃️🌨️
A significant pattern switch and a return to summer and warm, hot, and extreme temperatures are set to arrive on cue during the next week.
The upcoming week will continue with a run of gradually cooler and more unsettled conditions to begin with.
However, from in and around next Sunday (August 25) or earlier, we will see Britain and Ireland returning to some prolonged summery weather from significant high pressure rises and a pattern change to a much warmer to hot airflow across our shores.
This will initially see temperatures climbing and ranging into the mid to high 20s, at the very least quite widely to begin with.
However, the expected heat surges are now highly likely to be significant throughout late August and well into September, and there is no reason as to why we couldn't see further extreme temperatures in at least the low to mid 30s during these developments.
Our first ever posting for a late August heatwave is below and states the following:
"Another hot to very hot period from another high pressure build is now gaining strength for our originally earmarked period to subscribers and our earlier updates for AROUND AUGUST 20–25, and is also something I have been covering as a possibility for recent updates."
"Additionally, these high pressure rises are even more confident to continue into SEPTEMBER at times, but with some notable caveats that have been covered in the subscriber reports and also something that I will post more details on at a later date."
Unfortunately, there is still a quite prolonged and much cooler and unsettled theme on the cards for many prior to this next heat surge, and this is also something I have been forewarning of repeatedly for much of the second half of August."
An additional update also stated the following in reference to the dates of August 25 quite clearly and within the headline title:
"There are now some increasing and strengthening signals within our own forecast projections for another major heat surge during late August or for a significant pattern switch to develop over several days in and around August 25, possibly a little earlier." "There are now some increasing and strengthening signals within our own forecast projections for another major heat surge during late August or for a significant pattern switch to develop over several days in and around August 25, possibly a little earlier."
"We therefore expect another hot to very hot period from another high pressure build to gain strength for around August 20–25, PARTICULARLY for in and around August 25."
A later Daily Mirror article also went on to state the following:
"Exacta Weather forecaster James Madden said: "Signals are ever-increasing for the hot to very hot weather to return during late August." He pinpointed August 20 to August 25 (most likely around the 25th, as in our dated updates) as when this "major heat surge" will likely COME."
Next Sunday or earlier is August 25 guys (within the exact range), and our introduction in the above states "prolonged summery weather from significant high pressure rises and a much warmer to hot airflow across our shores."
Additionally, it is not my fault if others wish to manipulate what I've said or try to make me look wrong (just as with every other heat event this summer).
Unfortunately, there is still some much cooler and unsettled weather to come during the next week (something we have covered repeatedly) and prior to these changes later next week, but the good news is that it will be worth the wait for a prolonged run of summer over the next couple of weeks throughout late August and well into September.
The following and much earlier Daily Mirror article that predicted the exact timings of THREE separate heat surges also stated the following:
Madden reckons the second half of August will bring "some much cooler and unsettled weather."
https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/uk-faces-high-30cs-heatwave-33239125.amp
Our significantly earlier than anyone else forecast projections for September and the exact timing of the previous heatwaves (see dated news image):
https://www.birminghammail.co.uk/news/midlands-news/uk-set-indian-summer-september-29550505.amp
James Madden: Exacta Weather
17/08/2024, 23:00
UK & Ireland Autumn and Winter 2024/25 Weather Reports Plus First Autumn & Winter 2024/25 Expected Snow Dates 🍂🍃❄️🥶
https://exactaweather.com/autumn-and-winter-2024%2F25
Temperatures peak at a very hot 34.8°C, but turning much cooler and more unsettled. When is the next heat surge likely?
It was the hottest day of the year earlier today, with temperatures falling just short of 35°C (34.8C).
Our detailed posting below and via Facebook above from 4 weeks in advance clearly depicts the incoming heat event for these exact dates by stating:
"The next opportunity of much 'higher' confidence has been repeatedly showing in our forecasts for several weeks now for in and around August 10, and the overall period of August 10-15 looks extremely favourable for some kind of major heat surge due to a strong area of high pressure pushing in across our shores (UK and Ireland)."
"It is important to note that these potential heatwaves or heat surges in August are bonus heatwaves, so to speak, and were not actually part of our original long-range summer forecast, for which we had expected a quick reversion to the predominant cooler and unsettled conditions of much of the summer to date once again."
"However, as with the mid-to-late June heat surge with temperatures exceeding 30°C, which we identified and repeated from late May onwards due to some earlier and repeated forecast indicators that were not in our original projections (still a long range forecast in itself), and this is pretty much the same for this one in and around August 10."
https://www.facebook.com/100063588901621/posts/995325239263764/?app=fbl
Our much earlier forecast indications for this period were also quoted in the national news several weeks ahead of time (Daily Mirror).
"Madden also identified around August 10 to August 15 as when this second "heat surge" will strike."
https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/uk-faces-high-30cs-heatwave-33239125.amp
The BBC and Met Office apps were almost 10°C out (9.8C) with maximum temperatures in the UK for this period! 🌞 🔥 🥵
Our earlier and dated posting is below:
https://www.facebook.com/100063588901621/posts/1011786310950990/
Our posting from last week in reference to today's maximum temperatures of at least 34°C!
https://www.facebook.com/100063588901621/posts/1013617134101241/
Signals are ever-increasing for the hot to very hot weather to return during late August/later next week and into September...
There are currently some increasing signals for another major heat surge during late August or for one to develop over several days in and around August 20–25 (same as our weekend update on this).
Four consecutive heat surges have occurred for almost or on the exact dates on our part throughout this summer in repeated reports and updates dating anywhere from 4 to 16 weeks in advance, which therefore increases confidence to something moderately higher.
Another hot to very hot period from another high pressure build is now gaining strength for our originally earmarked period to subscribers and our earlier updates for around August 20–25, and is also something I have been covering as a possibility for recent updates.
Additionally, these high pressure rises are even more confident to continue into September at times, but with some notable caveats that have been covered in the subscriber reports and also something that I will post more details on at a later date.
Unfortunately, there is still a quite prolonged and much cooler and unsettled theme on the cards for many prior to this next heat surge, and this is also something I have been forewarning of repeatedly for much of the second half of August.
The following and subsequent dated website and Facebook updates from last week also stated the following in reference to this:
"Unfortunately, beyond this upcoming weekend does look rather cool and unsettled for the foreseeable, with the only crumb of hope coming from a potentially 'low to moderate' confidence heat burst later in August as the cool and unsettled theme becomes the more predominant feature from a more southerly driven jet stream (something we have covered predominantly over the past several months)."
https://www.facebook.com/100063588901621/posts/1011786310950990/
"Additionally, from in and around next Wednesday (August 14th) or possibly earlier, we will see a more prolonged run for a southerly driven jet stream developing, which will in turn bring a much cooler and unsettled theme for the foreseeable future for many (you have been warned), and it could also feel quite autumnal at times for the height of summer and August."
https://www.facebook.com/100063588901621/posts/1012948724168082/
"However, from Tuesday and Wednesday of next week, we will see areas further north turning gradually and significantly cooler and more unsettled, and this will eventually drag in most, if not all, parts of the country for a potentially prolonged period and somewhat of a potentially widespread thundery breakdown as next week progresses."
https://www.facebook.com/100063588901621/posts/1013617134101241/
The subsequent Daily Mirror articles from earlier last month (July) and earlier last week also stated:
Madden reckons the second half of August will bring "some much cooler and unsettled weather."
https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/uk-faces-high-30cs-heatwave-33239125.amp
Exacta Weather forecaster James Madden said: "At the very least, we are going to see temperatures well in excess of 30C to 35C in the hottest parts of the country later this week!"
Madden did add that, after this upcoming weekend, conditions do "look rather cool and unsettled for the foreseeable."
https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/uk-weather-exact-dates-heatwave-33398643
But the summer and sun will still be returning, plus for Ireland too.
More forecast details are to follow on this shortly.
James Madden: Exacta Weather
12/08/2024, 20:00
UK & Ireland Autumn and Winter 2024/25 Weather Reports 🍂🍃❄️🌨️🥶
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This is currently the only section that is monetized via Exacta Weather, and any revenue generated will simply be reinvested in trying to cover running costs and future free services via the website or apps.
This works out at less than £4 per report for 5 reports in total and is for those in need of a longer-range forecast for business or commercial requirements.
1 x 4-page Autumn 2024 report upon purchase (September - December)
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⚠︎ Heat intensifies further this weekend and into Monday; could we see temperatures peaking into the mid- to high 30s? ⚠︎
Current and third-party projections are now finally intensifying the incoming heat surge to some very hot temperatures throughout this weekend and into Monday.
Even though our own projections suggest maximum temperatures as high as 34°C in this period, if these intensifications continue, then there is no reason why the subtlest of nudges couldn't see temperatures ranging in the mid to high 30s during the peak of this major heat event on Monday, August 12th.
Many other parts of the country away from parts of the far north and Scotland will also see some very warm to hot temperatures peaking in the mid to high 20s for this well promised heat surge, with the risk of some locations away from the southern half of the country also getting close to or touching the 30°C mark during this same period.
Overnight temperatures will also struggle to go below a humid feeling of 20°C in some parts of southern, eastern, and central England during this period, and some parts further north could also see overnight and muggy temperatures in the high teens at the very least.
Our detailed posting from 4 weeks in advance clearly depicts the incoming heat event for these exact dates by stating:
"The next opportunity of much 'higher' confidence has been repeatedly showing in our forecasts for several weeks now for in and around August 10, and the overall period of August 10-15 looks extremely favourable for some kind of major heat surge due to a strong area of high pressure pushing in across our shores (UK and Ireland)."
"It is important to note that these potential heatwaves or heat surges in August are bonus heatwaves, so to speak, and were not actually part of our original long-range summer forecast, for which we had expected a quick reversion to the predominant cooler and unsettled conditions of much of the summer to date once again."
"However, as with the mid-to-late June heat surge with temperatures exceeding 30°C, which we identified and repeated from late May onwards due to some earlier and repeated forecast indicators that were not in our original projections (still a long range forecast in itself), and this is pretty much the same for this one in and around August 10."
Our much earlier forecast indications for this period were also quoted in the national news several weeks ahead of time (Daily Mirror).
"Madden also identified around August 10 to August 15 as when this second "heat surge" will strike."
https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/uk-faces-high-30cs-heatwave-33239125.amp
James Madden: Exacta Weather
(09/08/2024 - 05:00)
Temperatures start to rise today as a HOT SUMMER WEEKEND arrives on cue for many!
From today (Thursday), we will see high pressure starting to push in across our shores, and this will start to influence a significant rise in temperatures from today and into this weekend.
This will initially see temperatures reaching or nearing 20°C throughout this afternoon quite widely, and some parts of the southeast could see temperatures reaching or passing 25°C later today.
Throughout tomorrow (Friday), we will once again see temperatures reaching or nearing 20°C quite widely, and the heat will start to become more extensive across parts of southern and eastern England, where temperatures will rise into the mid- to high 20s in some places during Friday afternoon.
A similar theme and temperatures will continue into Saturday (10th AUGUST), before things really turn up a notch throughout Sunday and into Monday, when temperatures could reach as high as 32-34°C in some parts of southern and eastern England.
Additionally, temperatures are also likely to reach into the mid- to high 20s at the peak of this in many other parts of the country during this Sunday to Monday period.
Even some heat-starved and large parts of Ireland and certain parts of Scotland are also likely to see temperatures ranging in the low to mid-20s at the peak of these developments during this same period, particularly on Sunday.
Warm to summery conditions but not as hot as the previous days, then look to cling on for at least another 2-4 days in parts of the south of the country during the next week to begin with.
However, from Tuesday and Wednesday of next week, we will see areas further north turning gradually and significantly cooler and more unsettled, and this will eventually drag in most, if not all, parts of the country for a potentially prolonged period and somewhat of a potentially widespread thundery breakdown as next week progresses.
Our update from earlier in the week also stated the following in reference to the above forecast details when there were no such indications from elsewhere:
"From in and around Wednesday and THURSDAY, we will see temperatures rising significantly once again as high pressure rises across our shores throughout this period and into THIS WEEKEND, delivering a much more summery and hot theme than current app indications."
"Another forced check of the current BBC and Met Office apps for this period and later this week are showing some very unsettled conditions and temperatures no higher than 19°C for my own location in Lancashire and no higher than 25°C for London."
Our much earlier forecast indications for this period in late June were also quoted in the national news in early July (Daily Mirror).
The same article also correctly covered the mid- and late-July heat surges and the incoming one at present before any other forecaster or forecasting company that is finally in recognition of this now.
"Madden also identified around August 10 to August 15 as when this second "heat surge" will strike."
"Madden reckons the second half of August will bring "some much cooler and unsettled weather."
https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/uk-faces-high-30cs-heatwave-33239125.amp
James Madden: Exacta Weather
08/08/2024 - 05:00
UK & Ireland Autumn and Winter 2024/25 Weather Reports 🍂🍃❄️🌨️🥶
The forecasts are reduced by 50% in a limited-time offer until 5 p.m.
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War Of The Weathermen Important Update...
I've literally only just spotted this one now, everyone, as I've started checking news and media articles periodically (to avoid any confusion from other contributors within the same articles for myself).
It is unusual for a national news article to do such a piece, but there are also some very true statements contained throughout by myself, and the Daily Star has done a great job of covering this "war of the weathermen." 😂
I wondered why the Met Office tried dressing up a new type of long-range weather forecast recently too. 😂
Thanks
https://www.dailystar.co.uk/news/latest-news/weathermen-war-met-office-slammed-33381917
Additionally, all our correct forecast predictions since 2010 are contained within the following links below, plus proof of this (something similar from a 170-year establishment compared to my 14 years would be nice to see):
https://exactaweather.com/the-exacta-weather-story
https://exactaweather.com/our-correct-predictions
James Madden: Exacta Weather
07/08/2024 - 07:00
High pressure to bring further on cue warm to HOT conditions, plus what next and September?
The coming days and into this weekend will now see high pressure starting to work across our shores, and with this will come rising temperatures for many parts of the country.
The peak of this heat surge on and around Saturday and Sunday could see temperatures in the low to mid 30s developing across parts of southern and central England, and prior to this, we will also see temperature values in the mid to high 20s developing in these parts over the coming days.
Additionally, high pressure will also influence the weather to be something much warmer for many other parts of the country within this same period, and highs in the mid- to high 20s can be expected in many other parts and as far north as the Lake District.
Some parts of Ireland, particularly in parts of the south and east of the country, could also benefit from some better and warmer weather days in the low to mid-20s within this developing period.
The high pressure and better weather could then also extend into the start of next week for a day or two, particularly more so in parts of the south.
Unfortunately, as we covered in our last update, some parts of the very far north of Scotland and Northern Ireland are likely to be under or close to low pressure and could fail to see any sustained warmth or summery conditions during these developments in the coming days until later this weekend.
Additionally, from in and around next Wednesday (August 14th) or possibly earlier, we will see a more prolonged run for a southerly driven jet stream developing, which will in turn bring a much cooler and unsettled theme for the foreseeable future for many (you have been warned), and it could also feel quite autumnal at times for the height of summer and August.
However, the good news is that September does look like delivering some further periods of late summer warmth and Indian summer-type weather, particularly during the first half of the month, but with some caveats for later (also something we have been covering for the past several months).
The following national news article (Daily Mirror) identified the most recent heat surges in July from much earlier in the month and additionally stated the following:
Madden also identified around August 10 to August 15 as when this second "heat surge" will strike.
Madden reckons the second half of August will bring "some much cooler and unsettled weather."
https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/uk-faces-high-30cs-heatwave-33239125.amp
James Madden: Exacta Weather
07/08/2024 - 06:55
Autumn and Winter 2024/25, and SSW Weather Update 🍂🍃❄️🌨️🥶
Plus free 6-month ahead report covering to January 2025 worth £19 with this item for this week only.
https://exactaweather.com/autumn-and-winter-2024%2F25
Turning much hotter than third-party and app indications for later this week!
From in and around Wednesday and Thursday, we will see temperatures rising significantly once again as high pressure rises across our shores throughout this period and into next weekend, delivering a much more summery and hot theme than current app indications.
Another forced check of the current BBC and Met Office apps for this period and later this week are showing some very unsettled conditions and temperatures no higher than 19°C for my own location in Lancashire and no higher than 25°C for London.
Honestly guys, this is absolutely ridiculous once again and way undervalued on the basis of the heat charts and high pressure rises that I am viewing myself for this period, and I will post the actual daytime temperatures later this week.
At the very least, we are going to see temperatures well in excess of 30-35°C in the hottest parts of the country later this week!
Some unsettled conditions may encroach or exist from the far north of the country during this period, but it will be more towards next week and after the upcoming weekend before this cooler and unsettled theme really begins to kick in.
Unfortunately, beyond this upcoming weekend does look rather cool and unsettled for the foreseeable, with the only crumb of hope coming from a potentially 'low to moderate' confidence heat burst later in August as the cool and unsettled theme becomes the more predominant feature from a more southerly driven jet stream (something we have covered predominantly over the past several months).
Additionally, the following national news article that identified the last heat surge within the Daily Mirror from much earlier in July also stated:
Madden also identified around August 10 to August 15 as when this second "heat surge" will strike.
Madden reckons the second half of August will bring "some much cooler and unsettled weather."
https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/uk-faces-high-30cs-heatwave-33239125.amp
James Madden: Exacta Weather
(05/08/2024 13:00)
Autumn and Winter 2024/25, and SSW Weather Update 🍂🍃❄️🌨️🥶
Plus free 6-month ahead report covering to January 2025 worth £19 with this item for this week only.
So, the July heat and multiple major heatwaves did happen after all!
So not only did we get one heatwave in the second half of July, but we got two with significantly hotter temperatures than apps and other forecasters were never in full recognition of from a few days out.
I'd also say that equates to a "more predominant feature of high pressure and hot temperatures" for the exact period quoted from 14 weeks in advance on our part.
Additionally, the same forecast also identified the predominant cooler and unsettled theme for much of the first half of summer, in addition to also identifying a bonus mid- to late June heatwave with temperatures exceeding 30°C for the first time this year during late May (still a long range forecast in itself and was very different from what was being suggested elsewhere).
https://exactaweather.com/summer-2024-free-report
The same report also correctly opted for temperatures that finished bang on average for June and will now finish well above-average for July in terms of the CET (oldest temperature dataset in the world) due to the current hot weather of the past several days.
https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html
I'd love to see anything similar in timing or accuracy within the public domain from this far ahead or from any other ONE forecast or forecaster for this period. 🤔
I'm also not looking to create any adversity here but more to stand up to it, and those who had so much to say, some even abusive towards me, have now gone very quiet all of a sudden.
Regards,
James (31/07/24 - 17:00)
Autumn and Early Winter 2024/25, and SSW Weather Update 🍂🍃❄️🌨️🥶
It's getting to that time of the year again when those who study weather patterns intrinsically, like myself, can start passing judgement on the expected state of the atmosphere and how it will impact our jet stream and longer-term weather patterns later this year.
Temperatures exceed 30°C again as the heatwave continues, plus thundery downpours in places from tomorrow...
Temperatures have exceeded 30°C for the second consecutive day in the hottest parts of the country today.
These hot temperatures will continue into tomorrow, when 30°C or close to this will be reached once again, and even into Friday, we will still see top temperatures in the high 20s before things start to cool down somewhat into the weekend and bring the further risk of developing thunderstorms.
However, some vigorous thundery outbreaks across the country could hamper things from tomorrow morning and throughout much of Thursday, particularly more so but not restricted to, parts of central, southern, and eastern England, where we could see even some localised flooding and/or large hail developing in places.
The next hot period or very hot period will then start to gain recognition in and around August 10–15, possibly a little earlier.
James Madden: Exacta Weather
31/07/24 - 17:00
Much hotter conditions are finally gaining recognition from elsewhere as the next heat surge and extreme temperatures arrive on cue!
The third-party weather forecasts and various apps are now finally starting to become aware of the incoming hot weather over the next several days.
However, they are still quite far away from what the actual temperature values will rise to in reality from tomorrow and through to around Wednesday or Thursday of next week, at the very least.
Additionally, temperatures could still reach as high as the mid- to high 20s in parts of the northern half of the country in this developing period, and 30°C or more still can't be ruled out in certain parts.
However, parts of the southern half of the country and particularly parts of central and southern England could see the hottest temperatures extending into the mid- to high 30s (extreme) at the peak of this from the mid- to end of the next working week. Overnight temperatures will also struggle to go below or even stay above 20°C in places within this period.
After this next period of major heat and from later next week, it is becoming more favourable for a brief run of somewhat cooler and more unsettled conditions prior to the next heat surge for in and August 10 (10–15).
This projected unsettled period is something that requires further analysis over the coming days and isn't something I completely trust due to an underestimation of the current strength of the jet stream and high pressure intensification across our shores for this period.
However, there are some repeated indicators for this scenario to occur or have some kind of influence that simply can't be discarded as of yet and is something I have been caught out with before within my old forecasts, hence a bit of caution from myself.
Again, a few more days of analysis are required, and I feel this less favourable weather scenario will become somewhat more diluted as the major high pressure build begins and intensifies across our shores from this weekend and into next week.
However, we must take nothing away from the types of hot to extreme temperatures that we can now fully expect to develop over the next 5–6 days at the very least, as it's going to get very hot for many and much hotter than the current app and TV forecasts, which are now rising on cue day by day.
Our update from earlier this week, when there were no such indications from elsewhere, stated:
"The bigger and better changes for this summer will begin to occur around Friday and throughout the next weekend as high pressure begins to build in and send temperatures rising significantly for all parts of the UK and Ireland, throughout the remainder of the month, and into early August over a high-confidence 1-2 week period."
"Additionally, it is within this developing period that we will now see those temperatures rising to some possibly extreme values of in and around the mid to high 30s in the hottest parts of the country as a potentially high-risk heat dome scenario begins to take hold across our shores."
"Even parts further north and in much of Scotland and Ireland are also likely to see a consistent run of prolonged temperatures in the mid to high 20s, at the very least as high pressure becomes the more predominant feature to deliver lots of on-cue and widespread summery weather, hot conditions, and extreme heat over the coming weeks."
https://exactaweather.com/uk-short-range-weather
An earlier Daily Mirror article at the start of the week titled "UK temperatures to go well above average and 30°C again from this weekend" also stated before any other forecast or forecasters:
Madden predicts this heatwave could persist through the end of July and into August, potentially marking a "one to two-week period" of high temperatures starting this weekend.
Madden said: "It is within this developing period that we will now see those temperatures rising to some possibly extreme values of in and around the mid to high 30Cs in the hottest parts of the country as a potentially high-risk heat dome scenario begins to take hold across our shores.
https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/uk-weather-heat-dome-send-33294801
Additional postings also seriously questioned the then-current BBC and Met Office temperature projections for this period by also stating:
"It is literally beyond my comprehension why public service providers for the weather, such as the BBC and Met Office, are not covering this developing heat to extreme heat situation better and the actual types of temperatures we can now expect to see in reality within this developing period from Sunday onwards."
"Watch this space, everyone, as it's about to become very hot, if not extremely hot, for many parts of the country over the coming days!"
https://vm.tiktok.com/ZGeW5ScwU/
An additional Daily Mirror article from early July also stated the following in reference to mid- and late-July:
"This will allow for our shores (UK and Ireland) to come under a much warmer airflow over an extended period from this pattern change, and it will also place us in an extremely favourable position for high pressure rises and some hot to very hot temperatures on a widespread scale from in and around mid-July and throughout much of the second half of the month."
https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/uk-weather-exact-date-mini-33142029.amp
Our 12- to 14-week in advance forecast was a "high confidence" scenario for this to occur or start developing, particularly in and around July 15–17 onwards and throughout the second half of July.
https://exactaweather.com/summer-2024-free-report
Time for all the other forecasts and forecasters to start pretending that they forecast this incoming heat all along, but we all know the real 'truth' and all the proof you need for myself in terms of short, moderate, and long range forecasting for this exact period has been provided above.
Unfortunately, the ineptness of pretty much all other forecasts and apps of late cast some serious doubt on our repeated forecast details for this exact period over a transparently proven and extended period on my part.
Seriously, guys, I was literally sitting here once again with people paying little or no attention or interaction to our posts, with only a small number or a handful of post likes and post shares from our 'in the know' regulars who have followed us for years (thank you to those individuals).
Enjoy everyone, but on a more serious note, also take care during the more extreme temperature values at the peak of this heat.
James Madden: Exacta Weather
(27/07/2025 - 00:28)
Autumn, early winter 2024/25, and SSW weather reports: will it snow? ☀️🍂❄️🥶
A warm to hot "pattern change" is arriving on time, but how long will it last and how settled, hot, or extreme will it become?
I don't watch TV forecasts or check app projections for obvious reasons and to avoid distraction from my own forecast projections, but quite a few people left comments on my posts last week about TV forecasters and other weather pages laughing at the possibility of temperatures reaching 30°C during THIS WEEK!
However, today is July 17, and temperatures are expected to reach or exceed the mid-20s or higher this afternoon in parts of southern England, with warm-to-humid temperatures developing elsewhere.
Thursday, July 18, and Friday, July 19, will see maximum temperatures climbing even higher, and we should see temperatures reaching into the mid- to high 20s across large parts of the country, particularly across parts to the south and east of the country, when temperatures could reach or exceed the 30°C mark for the second time this summer in London.
This could also re-register the hottest day of the year for 2024, particularly in parts of the south and east on Friday.
Throughout the upcoming weekend and into early next week, we will see a temporary dip in these temperatures to something more comfortable, and with this comes the risk of some temporary showers or thundery downpours from across the north and sometimes in the south, but it will still be warm, with more in the way of summery and warm temperatures in comparison to late, particularly in the southern half of the country.
However, it is certainly nowhere near the widespread stormy and cool projections that were being projected from elsewhere and from the Met Office for this upcoming period, and one of my most frequent comments here of late has been as to how they are largely underestimating this upcoming "pattern change."
Additionally, this potentially unsettled period is also something that we have covered repeatedly and also downplayed somewhat but never ruled out during recent weeks (ahead of all other forecasters).
These sudden rises in temperatures are also something that nearly all of the main third-party forecasters and many weather apps have not been aware of until the past 24-48 hours or so, and they are something we have literally maintained would occur with 100% confidence in various posts, comments, and a whole multitude of national news articles, as I am about to conclusively prove in the below.
High pressure will return quite quickly and become the more predominant feature during next week and during late July to continue this on cue and expected "pattern change" with some variations from warm/hot to possible extreme temperatures in terms of heat that could see the hottest spots reaching into the mid to high 30s during late July and again in August.
The following Daily Mirror article from EARLY JULY also covered this developing scenario for MID-JULY by stating the following for this period and the SECOND HALF of July:
"This will allow for our shores (UK and Ireland) to come under a much warmer airflow over an extended period from this pattern change, and it will also place us in an extremely favourable position for high pressure rises and some hot to very hot temperatures on a widespread scale from in and around MID-JULY and throughout much of the SECOND HALF of the month."
https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/uk-weather-exact-date-mini-33142029.amp
We also posted the following during EARLY JULY, in reference to conflicting ideas and forecasts from elsewhere for this period:
"Unfortunately, other forecasts or forecasters who can't or won't forecast this far ahead simply confuse the issue as they don't really know intrinsically what will happen the next few days, never mind from next week and in and around mid-July."
"However, you can almost pretty much GUARANTEE that they will be all over it when it occurs, pretending like they forecast the hot temperatures they will be shouting about!"
https://www.facebook.com/100063588901621/posts/989409933188628/
The following posting from early July also stated:
"Unfortunately, others will make more of this and try and pinpoint everything on NEXT WEEK for their own reasons and to make me look wrong, but I can't have been any more clearer on the dates for this, which is now EXTREMELY LIKELY to happen."
https://www.facebook.com/100063588901621/posts/990023123127309/
The following Daily Mirror article titled 'Get the BBQs Ready' also recently stated (when there were no such indications from elsewhere still):
Exacta Weather's James Madden has now warned that Brits are in for a scorcher in their latest forecast. Madden announced: "Get the barbecues at the ready, as a big change and some big heat are now set to arrive on cue!
He added: "The expected and well-promised pattern change for July 10-20, particularly July 15-17, is now on and imminent for some very hot to potentially extreme heat, which is now on the horizon for many parts of the country within the next several days."
**We said nothing about 40°C in any of our updates or in "quotes." This is an editorial error.**
https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/uk-weather-exact-date-maps-33186429
Finally, the following posting from last week then doubled down on all of the early July forecast information by 'scoffing' at the then current BBC app projections, GUARANTEEING much warmer temperatures for this period, and also stating, "No wonder, no one believes it or doesn't think a major heatwave is coming!".
The temperatures for London are now up to 6°C higher than these earlier app projections pictured below and are possibly still being undervalued by a few degrees.
https://www.facebook.com/100063588901621/posts/pfbid0AEjuVXWgCjcCt2q3ucDxRqWu9F9jtj4c7TuzLTyZeGuNYMM4mSdStRmrxo4t7WoPl/
Our 12- to 14-week in advance forecast also covered the dates of July 10–20 as a "high confidence" scenario for this to occur or start developing, particularly in and around July 15–17 onwards and throughout the second half of July.
https://exactaweather.com/summer-2024-free-report
James Madden: Exacta Weather
(17/06/2024: 00:05)
Autumn & Early Winter 2024/25 Plus SSW Updates Now Live 🍂🍁🌪️🌨️🥶
Today is the 17th of June and pretty bang on mid-month, and a weather pattern change is now in clear development over the coming days that will see rising temperatures from warm/hot to very hot conditions within the next several days and during late June.
Our final and additional update to our summer 2024 report during late May, when there were NO such indications from elsewhere, stated:
"Additionally, we could also see a very hot and extensive period of warmth developing within around this same mid- to late-month period (June), which could see temperatures topping out at something much higher than this at the peak of any heat event around this time."
https://m.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=960691106060511&id=100063588901621
An additional update from early June also repeated this same forecast information by reinforcing my forecast idea for this period and stating:
"There are now some good and increasing signals for change just after mid-month and into the final part of June within our OWN forecast projections that appear to repeatedly build high pressure and some warm to potentially hot temperatures across our shores within this period, and this switch should be more than capable of bringing the warmest weather of the year to date to many locations within the UK and Ireland."
"We can also expect further changes to these third-party computer projections going forward and to pave the way for a very warm to exceptionally hot July, with the high possibility of some sort of mega or super heatwave developing for an extended duration within this period."
https://www.facebook.com/100063588901621/posts/970854838377471/
Now if that's not a long-range forecast in itself, then I'm not sure what is or counts? 🤔
Particularly when many of the others are still toying with the idea and can't offer any kind of certainty going forward.Particularly when many of the others are still toying with the idea and can't offer any kind of certainty going forward.
Summer is about to arrive on cue with a vengeance throughout this week and throughout late June, and please don't be fooled by the inept app projections (which have proven to be highly unreliable in the short, moderate, and long range projections of late).
The only real question marks are surrounding how hot it will actually become within this period for the UK and Ireland. 🌞🌞🌞
James Madden: Exacta Weather (17/06/24 06:00)
