Exacta Weather - UK Long Range Forecast
Cold & Wintry Week Ahead For The UK & Ireland + Widespread Snow Showers + Where/When Snow Answers…
Temperatures dropped to a very cold -7 to -8C in the coldest spots of the country overnight as the expected cold and wintry theme for this week begins to gain more of a stronghold across large parts of the UK and Ireland.
Initially, many parts of the country will begin on a cold and wet note as an area of low pressure influences some heavy rain showers alongside those colder temperatures throughout today.
However, as we progress into early evening tonight (Monday), some of this wet weather will begin to turn to snow at times across parts of northern England and Northern Ireland to begin with, and despite it being quite definitive for snow across higher ground in these parts later today, there is also no reason why some of this precipitation won’t also turn wintry or to temporary heavy snow showers at some much lower levels at times as the combination of colder conditions and unsettled weather becomes optimum for a decent risk of snow.
Additionally, the snow risk will then transfer further south to large parts of Wales and central, eastern, and southern regions, including the capital, and to some other parts in the northern half of Ireland during this evening and into Tuesday morning (unusual for November).
Again, despite projections for snow being definitive across higher ground in these above regions, there is also no reason as to why some of this weather won’t turn temporarily wintry or have some heavy snow showers at lower levels as the conditions become ripe for these types of wintry developments during this period.
Our much earlier and within at least several repeated updates and well-viewed TikTok videos also covered the exact dates of in and around 19-20 November for these types of developments to occur (see dated posts below and via the Exacta Weather website).
Additionally, this is something I feel many of the others are either playing down deliberately or they genuinely have little intrinsic knowledge of how the weather and snow work, even in their relatively very short-range projections, and I’m sure certain aspects of social media will provide clear proof and images of these upcoming snow events throughout this week, even to lower levels.
Beyond this first widespread snow event throughout this evening and into tomorrow, we will then see the wintry precipitation and snow showers continuing sporadically across the country throughout the whole working week, and literally anywhere could see a developing snow shower or two, with some more prominent snow showers continuing across the north and in many western and eastern coastal areas, particularly across large parts of Wales and, more unusually but temporarily, in some southern parts of Ireland on our current indications.
Additionally, and more importantly, an area of significant low pressure will then become more threatening to elsewhere and other forecasters from later this week (around Friday to Sunday), and this will signal an end to the cold and wintry weather from elsewhere upon first glance to them and how it will eventually bring a return to some less cold and even mild conditions afterwards.
However, this initially and strongly screams out to me, ‘a transient and widespread snow event’ for large parts of the UK and Ireland for later this week (north and south) as the unsettled and potentially stormy conditions clash with the much colder weather conditions in place across our shores during this given period of around Friday to Sunday, and prior to any changes back to less cold and even mild weather.
The return to mild weather is also likely to be very well documented from elsewhere (easy to predict) and something we put an original timespan on of around 7-10 days in overall duration in our much earlier cold and snow updates for this exact period.
To honor this on cue arrival of the expected cold and widespread snow risk in this period within all our short- to moderate-range dated forecasts and in our 125-days-plus ahead forecast, we will extend the sale price of our 5-page final winter report and further expected snow dates for December to February for a few more days.
https://exactaweather.com/autumn-and-winter-2024%2F25
Happy Monday, everyone, and enjoy!
James Madden: Exacta Weather
Major Cold & Wintry Weather For November + Widespread November Snow To Strike On Cue From Later This Week & Beyond!
From this upcoming weekend will see the first snow showers of the upcoming transition to some much colder weather starting to fall across parts of the north to begin with as an initially quite cold northerly for November begins to establish some expected and quite stark changes for most and if not all parts of the country during this period, as I will explain.
The developing snow showers throughout this weekend will initially be more notable across higher ground and sporadically to some lower levels at times in parts of Scotland, northern England, and Northern Ireland, and then later across some large parts of Wales and potentially to some parts of southwest England.
However, from Monday of next week and through to around Wednesday (18th-20th November) will now bring a significantly heightened risk for some widespread and potentially notable snow for November at times across some large parts of the country from the far north to the far south of the country as the widespread wintry weather and snow showers really begin to take ahold across large parts of the UK and Northern Ireland/Ireland.
Our much earlier updates on this also pinpointed the exact dates of in and around November 19-20 for these changes to start taking effect across our shores.
Additionally, a similar sort of theme is likely to play out throughout the rest of next week, and the signals are strong for the wintry weather and widespread snow risk to continue throughout much of this above period and beyond for the exact key dates we opted for in late November, for which many other forecasters were basically mocking myself/exacta and posting repeated headline titles within their weather updates about NO snow anytime soon.
Time for them to eat their own words and choke on them as a very potent period of wintry weather and quite widespread snow for November arrives on cue across our shores to deliver the first proper and major cold and wintry weather of this autumn and winter.
In essence, there is now likely to be quite a lot of snow warnings in place from this weekend and throughout much of next week, and large parts of the country will certainly experience some form of wintry weather or snow during next week, particularly in some parts of northern, eastern, central, and southern parts of the country later in this given period (heavy snow).
Additionally, our 125+ days ahead subscribers and follow-up forecasts for late November also opted for a high-confidence cold and wintry period for this exact period of November with snow in parts much further south than normal, and after all the expected high pressure rises on our part in the earlier part of the same autumn report for September to November + the earlier stormy periods for the exact dates in September and October.
Enjoy, everyone!
Regards,
James Madden: Exacta Weather
12/11/2024
Further expected widespread snow dates for December to February 2025 in the Winter Weather Outlook + What else to expect…
Staying Settled & Mild to Warm for November, but for how long?
There are currently no storms or wintry blasts expected across our shores as high pressure and settled weather continue to dominate, but we should still expect some big changes during the second half of the month, as the settled and mild to warm weather gives way to more unsettled, colder conditions and early wintry blasts.
https://www.facebook.com/100063588901621/posts/1074201804709440/
However, the weather wants to be kind and mild to warm until around mid-November on my projections, with the worst of conditions coming from some expected fog and developing frosts from cold overnight conditions at times during these types of developments.
However, we should still expect those bigger changes to some further stormy and even wintry conditions at times during the second half of November, possibly a little earlier, and as it has always been covered in what will be our 125+ days in advance forecast for this exact period.
Unfortunately, certain aspects of the media and other underperforming weather companies still want to make us appear as wrong, misuse, and even mislead others on the basis of our long-range weather forecasts. Below (see link) is a digitally dated image of our unchanged and unmanipulated autumn forecast for NOVEMBER issued in early July to several hundred subscribers and lifetime members covering September to November.
This exact same digitally dated forecast also covered the EXACT dates for the two previous stormy periods and wintry episodes in September and October + these expected high pressure rises and mild to warm conditions well into late autumn (the real problem here and how much more accurate and further ahead my summer forecast was issued to their own forecasts).
https://exactaweather.com/summer-2024-free-report
The likes of NW, MO, and BBC all underperform quite regularly with their long-range efforts and then TRY to pick on or even bully those who are outperforming them
I would love to see their earlier and more accurate summer and autumn forecasts, and then they are more than welcome to judge me and this winter!
Oh wait, they don't exist! 🤔😂
Nothing more to say on the matter...
Additionally, it will also turn colder in the evenings for all as expected in this same 125-day forecast for in and around bonfire night on our part, and then the second half of the month should also play out as expected.
Regards,
James (03/11/2024)
https://exactaweather.com/autumn-and-winter-2024%2F25
Just some of the snow images from last winter when NO relevant warnings or snow were ever forecast or issued from elsewhere or until the very last minute ❄️🌨️
We expect something much more potent to develop in terms of these wintry blasts for this year, and although not entirely cold throughout, as we have always covered and in numerous posts, with at least several notable wintry blasts and major stormy conditions to contend with, regardless of SSW developments in this period.
https://www.facebook.com/100063588901621/posts/1020579150071706/
The following: why so many storms? posts and video were posted before the recent stormy period and any indications from elsewhere that our weather reports identified from 100+ days ahead for the exact dates not once, but twice:
https://vm.tiktok.com/ZGdLyTGeR/
Dominant high pressure to keep things largely settled over the coming weeks and into November, but how will this impact our weather? Mild/warm, cold, & foggy? ☀️🥶🌁
The high pressure rises that have brought the mild and warmer than average temperatures during this week have actually worked against us, with that expected pool of colder air now being further away from us and our forecast expectations for the period of later this weekend and early next week.
However, the expected low-pressure system will still influence some unsettled weather and heavy rain and at least moderate winds to breezy conditions in parts of the north, Ireland, and western parts of the UK throughout this evening and into Friday, and the rain showers will also continue into this weekend in some of these places and for what is just outside our exact long-range dates of October 27 for this, but also without the wintry flavour we had expected it to coincide with from the north for this period.
However, it will still turn colder in this period for many and as we had expected from either scenario, particularly during the evenings, and a sort of north and south divide establishes itself with the best and worst of the weather conditions over the coming days.
Our week-ahead forecast also stated all of the following in reference to these developments:
"However, an additional area of low pressure and rather unsettled feature then looks to interfere with this regime from in and around Thursday or Friday, and this could bring more in the way of some heavy showers and potentially gusty to strong winds, particularly across parts of Scotland and Ireland and in western parts of the UK once again to begin with."
"Additionally, this will also pave the way for some much cooler to even colder conditions for the time of the year from the north as we head into next weekend, and this should also happen to coincide with some further stormy conditions in this period to bring some wintry weather across the far north and Scotland at the very least during next weekend and early next week (around October 27/28)."
"Additionally, they are also currently showing a bit of a tussle between high and low pressure for this later in the week that would see a north and south divide establishing itself on their current projections (colder and unsettled further north and milder and more settled further south)."
"However, further analysis is required over the coming days, and there could yet be some significant changes away from such dominant high pressure projections for in and around October 27 once the stormy conditions of recent days pass and allow these projections to become more affirmative (high pressure rises are STILL to be expected after these dates)."
https://exactaweather.com/uk-short-range-weather
Additionally, that colder pool of air will now have more of an influence later in November and still matches our forecast expectations on reanalysis, despite this recent forecast error, and it will also be a more potent wintry blast than we had ever originally expected for late October.
Other forecasters should now also be starting to see the multiple cold and wintry blasts potential for later in November and throughout large parts of December, with at least 2-4 major and widespread snow events in this period (something we have been making you aware of for several months and for the expected dates).
However, further high pressure rises or significant high pressure rises are likely to continue during next week and into early November at the very least, and despite some further mild to warm daytime temperatures for many for the time of the year from these types of developments in the coming weeks, it will also turn quite chilly to cold in the evenings, and overnight widespread frosts and foggy conditions are also to be expected for many despite these mild to warm temperature developments during the day from as early as this weekend and early next week (possibly patchy frost and fog at first).
To conclude, our long-range efforts did however accurately predict the September and October stormy periods and the snow across higher ground for the exact dates on both earlier occasions, and these two out of three stormy periods were also depicted quite accurately from 100 plus days ahead, and two out of three or two and a half out of three or more from this far ahead isn't a bad call on my part.
More forecast details are to follow shortly...
James Madden: Exacta Weather
24/10/2024 - 00:28
Expected Stormy Conditions To Give Way To Mild/Warm & Sunny Autumn Weather As High Pressure Returns On Cue + More Stormy Conditions Later As It Turns Colder From The North
The UK and Ireland are currently recovering from the aftermath and disruption of Storm Ashley throughout much of yesterday, with gales and strong winds being felt quite widely and top wind gusts of 110 MPH registered in the Cairngorms, Scotland, and 80 MPH+ in County Mayo, Ireland, from these stormy developments.
However, from around Tuesday through to around Thursday of this week we will see an area of non-significant high pressure extending across our shores to give some temporary relief and quite warm daytime temperatures for October with some brighter or sunny spells and drier weather for many in among some less vigorous and more sporadic showery activity in places.
Additionally, we should also see temperatures in the high teens for many in the best of the autumn sunshine, and possibly even 20C or higher could be reached in more southern areas.
The following dated posting from last week also stated the following in reference to this:
"Just to ensure I've been 'thorough' for all expected weather types, but just to say I still expect further significant high pressure rises and warm weather across our shores during next week and late October."
"However, we must also consider what I stated about this period and October several weeks earlier and why in the dated posting below:"
"This could literally bring a day or two of warm to hot and summery weather and be quickly replaced with more cooler and unsettled weather in the days to follow as the jet stream looks to go a little erratic, which in turn makes the weather much harder to predict and further analysis is required over the coming days."
"This WILL also send the apps and third-party forecasters into total disarray over the coming weeks, and expect NO consistency from them.
However, an additional area of low pressure and rather unsettled feature then looks to interfere with this regime from in and around Thursday or Friday, and this could bring more in the way of some heavy showers and potentially gusty to strong winds, particularly across parts of Scotland and Ireland and in western parts of the UK once again to begin with.
Additionally, this will also pave the way for some much cooler to even colder conditions for the time of the year from the north as we head into next weekend, and this should also happen to coincide with some further stormy conditions in this period to bring some wintry weather across the far north and Scotland at the very least during next weekend and early next week (around October 27/28).
Importantly, current third-party models, despite being in some kind of recognition of this for later this week now, are still not fully on board with it and how cold it could become from the north in this period.
Additionally, they are also currently showing a bit of a tussle between high and low pressure for this later in the week period that would see a north and south divide establishing itself on their current projections (colder and unsettled further north and milder and more settled further south).
However, further analysis is required over the coming days, and there could yet be some significant changes away from such dominant high pressure projections for in and around October 27 once the stormy conditions of recent days pass and allow these projections to become more affirmative (high pressure rises are still to be expected after these dates).
This also once again matches our 100+ days ahead autumn subscribers forecast dates that depicted another stormy period and of a potentially wintry nature from the north for in and around October 27.
Additionally, for the second time this autumn for our exact dates, we can now look back on our dated screenshots of our autumn subscribers report for these TWO earlier storm dates for September and October issued on July 6 (105 days ahead).
https://www.facebook.com/photo?fbid=1070753775054243&set=pcb.1070753811720906
https://www.facebook.com/photo?fbid=1070753768387577&set=pcb.1070753811720906
A decent achievement, yeah? Do some people even realise how hard it is to do this time and time again for the exact dates? The odds are astronomically high, everyone!
If any one of the supercomputers at the main establishments was producing such results, then we would be hearing about it left right and centre (GUARANTEED).
I would love to see something in such similar and enhanced detail from this far ahead from the so-called big boys and their supercomputers (just ONE would be great to see), but the reality is that it doesn't EXIST recently or historically for any of them...
https://exactaweather.com/our-correct-predictions
They have also all been well aware for some time that we have a decent knack for pinpointing such weather events from quite far ahead, and this is also why they try to rubbish me and then claim forecast success on their part when these weather events actually happen.
Thank you again to all the absolutely desperate to prove me wrong detractors for heavily promoting these exact same dates for me and raising extra awareness for others and nonbelievers of the Exacta Weather long-range weather forecasting methodology of these particular weather developments.
James Madden: Exacta Weather 20/10/2024 - 23:11
UK & Ireland Winter Weather Forecast + Expected Snow Dates
https://exactaweather.com/autumn-and-winter-2024%2F25
Please note that this is the only section of Exacta Weather that is monetised to cover expensive hosting and running costs and future app and weather forecast production.
Major stormy conditions are set to arrive on cue as the weather turns harsh for this weekend...
Throughout tomorrow afternoon and evening, we will see some heavy rain and strong winds developing across some large parts of Ireland and to the west of the UK and Scotland as the stormy conditions of the upcoming weekend begin.
Some of the strongest winds could be in excess of at least the 70-90 MPH range in the most remote or exposed areas in these parts from tomorrow afternoon/evening and early Saturday.
The rain will then gradually peter out as it travels eastwards, and the rest of Saturday could actually offer some respite from these conditions despite staying windy or breezy.
However, the next area of unsettled weather will then begin to arrive as another major low pressure area pushes in from the Atlantic for in and around the early hours of Sunday, and this will bring with it further heavy and potentially thundery rain showers for many and further strong winds in places during much of Sunday, but particularly more so across the western side of the UK and Ireland.
Again, do not be surprised to see the strongest winds reaching at least 70-90 MPH in some spots during this part of the forecasting period over the coming days.
The good news is that some further high pressure rises are still expected through next week and into late October, so it won't be all doom and gloom, but this weekend does look pretty grim for most, I'm afraid.
Additionally, our week-ahead forecast towards the end of last week stated:
"However, from in and around Friday (Thursday 17th-Saturday 19th is the range), we will begin to see the influence of a major area of low pressure upon our weather from the north of the country, and many northern parts of the country and across Ireland are likely to become temporarily and very unsettled over a number of days in this period, and it could also become temporarily cooler and unsettled in other parts of the country, as the overall track and intensity of this unsettled period, although now in some recognition from elsewhere and the models, is not set in stone for this period and how it will present itself across our shores later in the week."
https://exactaweather.com/uk-short-range-weather
Additionally, our 100+ day ahead autumn subscribers forecast issued in early July also quoted these exact dates of around OCTOBER 17-19 for such a stormy scenario on this sort of scale to develop across our shores within this period.
https://exactaweather.com/uk-long-range-weather
Take care, all.
James Madden: Exacta Weather
17/10/2024 - 16:54
PS: Just to add that temperatures reached a warm 22-23°C yesterday in the warmest spots of the country and despite the rain, which is some 8-9°C above the seasonal average for October.
Warm to HOT weather for October is set to arrive on cue, but it won't be entirely straightforward for certain dates we have covered, and why? + Winter Blocking, SSW, and snow/cold dates details...
High pressure rises towards the start of the upcoming week will allow for some much warmer conditions for the time of the year across some large parts of the UK and Ireland, with temperatures well in excess of the October average of 14C and with temperatures as warm as in excess of 20C or the low 20s at the very least in the warmest spots of the country around midweek.
However, from in and around Friday (Thursday 17th-Saturday 19th is the range) we will begin to see the influence of a major area of low pressure influencing upon our weather from the north of the country, and many northern parts of the country and across Ireland are likely to become temporarily and very unsettled over a number of days in this period, and it could also become temporarily cooler and unsettled in other parts of the country, as the overall track and intensity of this unsettled period, although now in some recognition from elsewhere and the models, is not set in stone for this period and how it will present itself across our shores later in the week.
Additionally, our 100+ day ahead autumn subscribers forecast also quoted these exact dates of October 17-19 for such a scenario to develop across our shores within this period.
The good news is that despite this expected unsettled weather towards the end of the new working week and around next weekend, it is also around next weekend at the latest that we also expect some even more significant high pressure rises to start taking effect and drawing some further warmer to even HOT temperatures for October across our shores for the time of year and for several days.
A forced check of the Met Office and BBC weather apps for this upcoming period is currently only showing maximum temperatures of around 14C for my own location in Lancashire and no higher than 15C for London for something that is now only several days away, and something I feel is being largely undervalued once again on their part in terms of these maximum day temperatures and how unsettled they have it for this period at present (I have taken screenshots for both locations).
The following and earlier update also covered what we thought would be a more predominant theme of warm to hot and settled weather for this exact period in October, and in exception for these long-range and expected interruptions, which I specified for TWO particular dates of HIGH confidence and which I also covered in multiple posts recently.
"From in and around Sunday and Monday (more Monday, 14th October), we will then begin to see high pressure starting to rise across our shores to bathe us in some much warmer than average temperatures for the time of the year and October, and a more PREDOMINANT theme of these high pressure RISES could now take effect over the coming WEEKS and into LATE October."
"However, it might not be entirely straightforward as the jet stream looks to stay a little erratic at times, bringing some interspersed and potentially cool/colder days with unsettled weather at times during these high pressure rises."
Importantly, the second date we covered in our 100+ day ahead autumn report and for which we also recently revealed in multiple detailed postings for another October stormy period in the links below, and which is likely to follow on from this several-day warm to hot period for in and around October 27.
This will be influenced in some shape or form from a major low-pressure area or storm system via the remnants of the recent Hurricane Milton and should also contain something of a wintry flavour to it as colder conditions also infiltrate from the north (see below posts on these details).
Our end-of-September detailed update also stated the following about this wintry blast and the upcoming high pressure rises: "An additional short-lived and similar or even more intensive high-pressure build is also an outside possibility and can't be entirely ruled out from around mid-October or a bit LATER."
https://www.facebook.com/100063588901621/posts/1058183489644605/
James Madden: Exacta Weather
October 12, 2024, 23:12
UK & Ireland Winter 2024/25 Forecast + December + Expected Cold & Snow Dates...
Our UK and Ireland winter 2024/25 forecast for the start of winter and December has identified TWO dates and periods in particular of high confidence dates to expect colder conditions and snow quite widely.
Additionally, there is a third date of less higher and more moderate confidence with some possible transient snow events during December too.
However, it is important to note that we do also have some other forecast expectations to start winter at times this year, and it would be unfair to paint a predominant theme of this cold and snow throughout the month as a whole.
Nevertheless, at least TWO cold and snowy periods are on the cards regardless of any earlier SSW occurrences, maybe even three if the third one of moderate confidence also comes to fruition.
Further details for these exact dates in December plus the rest of the autumn and November reports are now free to one-time or first-time subscribers of our UK and Ireland winter 2024/25 report and expected snow and cold dates.
https://exactaweather.com/autumn-and-winter-2024%2F25
Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) Events + Blocking Patterns During Last Winter & Winter 2024/25 (UK & Ireland)...
During last winter we were very unlucky as a nation and for snow lovers with the predicted SSW events not bringing more notable and lengthy cold and snow to our shores in something that would normally occur in our favour several times out of ten, but this year is different, and we have a lot in our favour for at least some decent cold and snowy shots, even if things were to go drastically wrong.
The following unchanged and dated Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) forecast from around this time last year (13 months) was correct in forecasting what was later classified as a very rare weather event by many others (see below LEFT image).
1. A minor SSW event in mid-November (moderate to high confidence).
2. A major SSW event in January (high confidence).
3. A major SSW event in February (high confidence).
https://www.facebook.com/story.php/?story_fbid=794715829324707&id=100063588901621
Additionally, this was also covered in some extra detail within the Daily Mirror several days later by myself (see above RIGHT image).
My expectations for all SSW occurrences have been covered within the final winter 2024/25 forecasts and with the expected snow and cold dates below.
Cold overnight temperatures, but more rain to come as the cooler/unsettled spell continues for now, plus an on-cue snow event for the north before the return of high pressure... then?
Quite a detailed one today here, but it's actually apt, and where we're at with this one as the "erratic jet stream," low/high pressure changes, and ex-hurricanes flying about everywhere will continue.
Some temporary clearer conditions of recent days have allowed some respite from the rain, but rather subdued and cool temperatures have still existed well below the October average of 14°C in recent days for many despite some sunny spells developing.
This allowed temperatures to drop quite widely overnight to a quite cold -1 to -3°C in the coldest spots of Scotland, England, and Wales, and some certain parts as far south as Birmingham, southern, eastern England, the Midlands and Wales also dipped to quite chilly values of around 0°C to -1°C in some of the coldest spots (a similar temperature to the summit of the Cairngorms in Scotland at the same time this morning).
Unfortunately, the colder and unsettled weather will continue for now as the rain looks to return from the north of the country throughout tomorrow, and it will also be cold enough for a decent snow event across at least higher ground in Scotland and the ski resorts such as the Nevis Range and Cairngorms, particularly throughout the latter part of Saturday and Saturday evening (something I have been covering for this particular day in all my updates from as early as last week and in several updates during this week).
There should be some decent coverings to showcase in these parts come Sunday morning, and some wintry weather away from the highest ground also can't be ruled out on Saturday evening.
Those high pressure rises and some settled and warm weather for the time of the year (well above the October average of 14°C) then look to take over from around next Monday (14th) and for a good portion of next week, but there could be some unsettled weather and rain or heavy rain earlier in the week in places and prior to these changes having an impact on our weather in this period.
More October Storms, Ex-Hurricane Remnants, & Wintry Blasts Important Update...
More stormy and unsettled weather will begin to make some kind of headway for IN AND AROUND our expected dates of October 17-19 to match our unchanged forecast indicators from 100+ days ahead.
However, more FINAL details and analysis are still to follow on this in the coming days and may yet be subject to a day or two deviation as the others and some of the main computer models aren't even in recognition of this as of yet for these periods. I have also posted multiple and detailed updates on this and the expectancy DATES for ex-hurricane Milton (a significant or 'extreme' low pressure feature by time it reaches us), further stormy weather, and/or future wintry blasts to impact upon our weather in some very detailed updates in recent days and proof of my long-range forecast for this in the below links:
https://www.facebook.com/100063588901621/posts/1062281699234784/
https://www.facebook.com/100063588901621/posts/1062563985873222/
All I will say for now is watch how the others start to slowly mention and bring these things out in their forecasts for these dates over the next several days...
James Madden: Exacta Weather
Friday October, 11, 2024 (06:00)
More Unsettled & Colder Weather, Wintry Blast, Snow, + The Return Of High Pressure Later Are All Set To Arrive On Cue Next Week...
The upcoming week will now see a much more unsettled and autumnal theme starting to develop to begin with as low pressure dominates proceedings.
Additionally, the ex-hurricane (significant low pressure area by time it crosses the Atlantic) looks set to follow more of a track into some other parts of the near continent instead. However, certain parts of the south or to the southeast of the country could still get brought in due to any last-minute changes or intensifications from this storm system.
Beyond this, we will then see much colder conditions filtering in from the north of the country as the expected wintry blast also takes shape across the UK and Ireland from around midweek.
This colder blast of air will also be cold enough for some notable snow across higher ground between the Wednesday to Saturday period in the north of next week, and some model runs keep introducing some non-significant wintry weather across higher ground, potentially in parts of northern England and a little further afield, but as I said in my last updates, this could also come down to a bit of luck with colder overnight and morning temperatures in these parts.
Nevertheless, a notable wintry blast is on the way with more notable snow in places for the exact dates we offered up once again (see below post from last week)
Additionally, the high pressure builds are still there for later next week and in and around next Sunday/Monday, and this could bring another settled few days of much warmer than average temperatures in this period at the very least, but with those chilly evenings continuing to make a mark due to the high pressure and the time of the year this is happening.
More details are to follow on from this shortly...
Please find our attached and accurate dated summer 2024 and autumn 2024 forecasts issued to our subscribers several months in advance below.
We also have documented and dated evidence of similar ranged long-range weather forecasts for the coldest December in 100 years (2010), the coldest summer in two decades (2011), the coldest March in 130 years (2013), the hottest summer ever (2018), the exact timing of the July heatwave and the hottest day ever (2022), the record-breaking early June heatwave (2023), the hottest September ever (2023), the mild stormy October (2023), the early November storm for the exact date (2023), the late November and early December cold and snow plus the very mild and unsettled weather afterwards (2023), the exact timing of three Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) events from several months ahead (2023).
https://exactaweather.com/our-correct-predictions
https://exactaweather.com/the-exacta-weather-story
Additionally, the more recent accurate summer and autumn 2024 reports also helped us to identify all of the following events over the past several months accurately or on the exact dates in most instances to our followers and subscribers:
1. The late June heat surge
2. The late July and early August heat surges
3. The early to mid-August heat surge
4. The late August heat surge
5. The early September heat surge
6. The mid-September heat surge
7. The cool and stormy weather that followed plus snow across higher ground in September
8. The pending early October wintry blast and stormy weather?
Anyone who is in need of a longer-range weather report for the coming months and winter + expected snow dates (instant email delivery) can access our detailed subscribers forecast for a minimal cost for the 5-page report or through the end-of-year subscribers' sale.
https://exactaweather.com/autumn-and-winter-2024%2F25
If anyone is not a subscriber or genuinely struggling in these hard times, then it is still important that you are aware of the pending weather scenarios of the coming months and this winter.
Just to let you all know that I am working through all the requests for the free report at present, and those not in receipt, please bear with me.
The influx has been far greater than I imagined, and although I really appreciate those who have sent supporting proof and documents of their circumstances, it honestly isn't necessary and just a line of text will do.
Also, many people are saying they feel cheeky asking, but please don't, and that is why the free offer is there in the first place (see below quote).
Unfortunately, I also can't publish it within the public domain, as certain press will just tear it to absolute pieces and highlight what suits, as per...
**"So if you genuinely can't afford access to the report or are of retirement age, in association with a charity and/or vulnerable or suffer from illness and any kind of mobility issues, then please visit us via the webpage and email below with a brief line on this, and we will forward you these particular reports for FREE."**
Unfortunately, our forecasts can often gain unwanted and mass attention from certain media who are not authorised to use our reports and often dress them up more than they need to, and often in cohabitation with the Met Office against ourselves.
We are trying our best to address this, as you will be able to tell from the recent Facebook posting below and within our story link above, but they will do whatever they can to discredit us and make us appear wrong.
James Madden: Exacta Weather (06/09/2024)
Warmer, sunny, and more settled/Indian summer type weather still to come over the next several days + big changes ahead as autumn and much colder weather looks set to arrive with a vengeance during next week...
Free Winter 2024/25 Forecast + previous lifetime subscribers...
If anyone is not a subscriber or genuinely struggling in these hard times, then it is still important that you are aware of the pending weather scenarios of the coming months and this winter too.
So if you genuinely can't afford access to the report or are unemployed, in association with a charity and/or vulnerable or suffer from illness and any kind of mobility issues, and/or a single parent, then please email us with a brief line as to why, and we will forward you these particular reports for FREE.
Please email us if you fall into any of these above categories at: exactaweather@gmail.com
This is also a final call out and has been pretty well promoted via the website for several months now, but if there are any previous lifetime subscribers among our followers who have not yet received the final winter 2024/25 forecast plus expected snow dates in recent days, then please get in touch using one of the above and I will check it out for you.
Any long-term or new individual forecast subscribers can now also take advantage of our 50% off limited time end-of-year offer for the new 5 year subscription to all of our seasonal forecasts and save nearly £200 (normally 99.99).
Instant email delivery of Winter 2024/25 reports + 5-page full Winter 2024/25 forecast and expected snow dates...
October Weather, Winter 2024/25, and Previous Lifetime Subs + Where Have We Been? + Our Seasonal Weather Predictions...
High Pressure/Warm Weather Showing For Our Exact Dates In Early October (UK & Ireland) + More Stormy, Cold & Wintry Weather Also Set To Arrive On Cue Next Month...
An area of high pressure during early October and in and around our dates of October 3-8 is now repeatedly showing up within EVERY Global Forecast System (GFS) model run for our exact dates once again.
This would bring a welcomed change to some much warmer than average temperatures and mid-autumn sunshine for many during early October over a number of days and from as early as later next week.
However, it is important to remember, that it is now October and this high pressure area or heat surge will not have the same sting that it usually would in one of the summer months or earlier in September, and in addition to the previous October warm to hot spells in terms of their overall intensity.
https://exactaweather.com/summer-2024-free-report
However, we could still be looking at some much warmer than average temperatures and Indian summer type weather over at least a 2-4 day period during early October, and if I were to have a conservative guesstimate, I would say that maximum temperatures could reach as high as the low to mid-20s at the very least in places during the peak of these high pressure developments.
Additionally, the average temperature for October is 14°C, and these types of temperatures are very warm and well above average for the time of the year.
Any slight intensifications nearer the time could make it even warmer, but the above estimate is probably a fair sort of assumption to pass from my own forecast analysis and probably high teens at least elsewhere. It could also become and feel quite chilly in the evenings at this time of the year under such high pressure rises, and it may take a while for the strength of the sunshine to warm things up as the morning progresses to the afternoon.
Our original forecast for this part of October also stated the following from a number of weeks in advance, and I also repeated this forecast information in another update from earlier this week:
"However, our forecast indications do suggest a mix of the two and still favour another heat surge or major heat surge for our earlier given dates of in and around 3rd–8th OCTOBER, but this doesn't mean there will be no unsettled and cooler weather to contend with."
https://www.facebook.com/100063588901621/posts/1048224433973844/?app=fbl
Unfortunately, this predicted warm spell will more than likely be temporary and replaced with some expected stormy, much cooler, and even wintry weather on our part during October, something our subscribers have been aware of since early July.
An additional short-lived and similar or even more intensive high pressure build is also an outside possibility and can't be entirely ruled out from around mid-October or a bit later, but confidence is only low on this and things would need to change as they stand for this to occur, and the form horse is currently favouring some very cold and unsettled weather.
Additionally, the same subscribers report from early July also covered these warmer periods in October and their overall extent by clearly stating that temperatures would not be as hot as in previous October's from these high pressure rises and to expect some very stormy and much cooler to cold weather during the month too.
Unfortunately certain press coverage of my October forecast for heat portrays this in a somewhat different light and as per usual from them really, and I still can't be entirely sure whether it's to make me look less accurate or just for clickbait to benefit themselves and advertising revenues.
A subscriber screenshot to follow shortly and prove this once and for all, but people are manipulating my long-range forecasts to suit their own agendas.
https://exactaweather.com/autumn-and-winter-2024%2F25
Unfortunately and sadly, certain press coverage of my long-range weather forecasts often portrays my forecast work in a somewhat different or more 'extreme' light to reality, and I still can't be entirely sure whether it's to make me look less accurate overall or just for clickbait to benefit themselves and advertising revenues.
To clearly demonstrate to all how this occurs and keeps occurring to me, and it's only now that the summer is over that I can personally fully appreciate how tidily accurate my subscribers summer 2024 report was overall and that I can highlight this for all to review for themselves within the free and dated version as proof from early April below.
https://exactaweather.com/summer-2024-free-report
And then we have the later dated press versions of my work, which I had to address earlier this year, and I even released the summer 2024 forecast for absolutely free within the public domain at a much earlier date to prove these HOTTEST SUMMER EVER claims with mine and the Exacta Weather name attached as incorrect and invalid.
Additionally, there isn't much I can do about this or how they use my forecast work that enters the public domain, so I would politely ask in the future not to necessarily always read too much into the actual headlines (I don't write them).
Please also kindly read what features within "quotation" marks from myself, as this will have been said; anything not in "quotation" marks is questionable and can be easily misinterpreted, misprinted, or even worded in a way that can make me appear wrong.
There are actually only a few news and media companies that I deal with directly or have long-standing relationships with for authorised use of my forecast work, and these are the Daily Mirror, GB News, and the Daily Star.
All the other high-traffic and clickbait articles that do the rounds with my forecast information just steal the information from these authorised articles and/or the public domain/Facebook to increase their own advertising revenues from my hard work (whereas the Exacta Weather website itself contains no ads to generate extra revenue).
There are also usually lots of well-timed 'Met Office responds' articles within days or sometimes hours to my actual "quotation" referenced news contributions going live and not the headlines or other non-quoted statements from myself (please remember this).
I can also now easily see how it may appear to others who simply take in these headlines and forget about this golden rule of just reading what I've said in "quotations" being valid within it.
I really hope this helps you all to understand my predicament and why there are often such big discrepancies and differences between my more often than not accurate subscribers forecasters, as well as when certain aspects of the press and media have gotten a hold of my work and how they and the Met Office consistently try to clearly twist things with lots of success towards myself and my forecast work, particularly my amended forecasts (something I try not to do that often and something they are guilty of daily).
However, I did get several winter forecasts completely wrong several years ago for several successive years.
Again, this is something I have openly admitted to time and time again, and I also covered it earlier this year in the Exacta Weather story link below, but otherwise most other seasonal forecasts have contained good to high accuracy overall since 2010.
I also cover this same situation with certain aspects of the press, Met Office, and BBC in some quite concise detail within the Exacta Weather story link.
https://exactaweather.com/the-exacta-weather-story
Personally and honestly, I didn't really know how to handle all this over the years and recently, and I was sort of more head in the clouds with the national recognition from everyone who appeared to want to use my forecast work, and I guessed they thought my work was good, and I just thought that I was gaining quite a bit of recognition.
However, it has become more than evidently clear to me over time how cutthroat this weather circle really is and how I am often used as a scapegoat by others to hide their own inaccuracies from this type of mass coverage, and understandably so, and something I now get when my name is attached to every extreme weather headline, despite what I actually say in "quotation" marks and my accurate subscribers forecast often saying something very different.
I have absolutely nothing to lose by telling the truth and being honest, and further conclusive proof of this will follow, and I will continue to address any such occurrences with proof in the future.
Important Winter 2024/25 Weather Forecast Update (Lifetime Subs) & Why I and Exacta Weather Went Missing For A While...
I'm really hoping everyone is now up to date with who should be in receipt of the winter 2024/25 forecast plus expected snow dates for any previous lifetime subscribers.
Additionally, a lot of the same questions have suddenly been filtering through to me as to where I've been and why I and Exacta Weather disappeared.
I didn't actually disappear altogether and kept myself active on Facebook, but there was a good few years period when the site was inactive due to illness, which I have covered in some quite personal details in the Exacta Weather story link that I put together for the relaunch of the website in April of this year.
Unfortunately, it will take a good five minutes of your time to read and digest, but it does explain my previous situation fully and honestly, and I will repost again individually at some point.
I really would appreciate those who follow my forecasts to at some point just give it a quick read if you can, and any feedback would also be gratefully received.
https://exactaweather.com/the-exacta-weather-story
I also continued to keep my long-range and seasonal forecasts active on Facebook even throughout some lengthy hospital stays and within certain approved media articles from the Daily Mirror, GB News, Daily Star, and Daily Express, in addition to some major weather predictions on my part as I continued to issue ALL these forecasts for FREE due to no website or hosting costs on my part.
https://exactaweather.com/our-correct-predictions
I can only sincerely apologise to those who have experienced issues with our restricted email access of late, and via this website, which has now been restored at: exactaweather@gmail.com
I have additionally had to invest in a paid email service to overcome such issues in the future, and the current contact for this is: contact@exactaweather.com
This is also a final call out and has been pretty well promoted via the website for several months now, but if there are any previous lifetime subscribers among our followers who have not yet received the final winter 2024/25 forecast plus expected snow dates over the past several days, then please get in touch using one of the above and we will check it out for you as soon as we can.
Any long-term or new individual forecast subscribers can now also take advantage of our 50% off limited time end-of-year offer for the new 5-year subscription to all of our seasonal forecasts and save nearly £200.
https://exactaweather.com/autumn-and-winter-2024%2F25
Our Seasonal Weather Predictions Over The Past 12 Months + Winter 2024/25 & Snow Update...
To offer some sort of credence and confidence to our early forecast projections for multiple and major cold shots in the near future, I have decided to list our long-range and seasonal forecast successes over the last 12 months from at least several months ahead of occurrence, despite others refuting this correct forecast information, particularly the Met Office (I offer proof of this).
1. The hottest September EVER (2023)
2. The mild and stormy October (2023)
3. The EXACT dates of the early November storm (2023)
4. The early mid-November sudden stratospheric warming (2023)
5. The late November and early December snow and cold (2023) plus several other snow events that had no prior warnings from elsewhere Plus the very mild and unsettled weather that followed...
6. The January sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) plus snow events dates...
7. The February sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) plus snow events dates...
8. An average June for Central England Temperature (CET)
9. A warmer than average July for Central England Temperature (CET) Plus the exact dates of the heat surges from over 12 weeks ahead of occurrence...
10. The prolonged and unsettled weather throughout summer
11. Indian summer weather x 2 (September 2024)
12. Cool, autumnal, and stormy weather for the exact dates in September plus snow x 2 to date across higher ground.
Please feel free to check out our dated Facebook posts around all these dates...
Additionally, our more short-to-moderate range forecasts ranging anywhere from 2 to 8 weeks in advance have also identified the following for the exact dates:
1. The late June heat surge
2. The late July and early August heat surges
3. The early to mid-August heat surge
4. The late August heat surge
5. The early September heat surge
6. The mid-September heat surge
This is also in addition to my many correct long-range and seasonal weather forecasts for the biggest weather events over the last decade, including the hottest day ever forecast, which still needs to be added in, and all the correct aspects of our summer 2024 forecast:
https://exactaweather.com/our-correct-predictions
Dated proof images and media links for the above forecasts are also available to view at the following links to our website below:
https://exactaweather.com/the-exacta-weather-story https://exactaweather.com/our-correct-predictions https://exactaweather.com/uk-long-range-weather
Regards,
James Madden
Saturday 28/09/2024 (05:22)
UK & Ireland Final Winter 2024/25 Weather Forecast (5-Pages December-March) + SSW Forecast Update + Expected Snow Dates
https://exactaweather.com/autumn-and-winter-2024%2F25 https://exactaweather.com/summer-2024-free-report
Unsettled & Stormy Weather But Better And Warmer For Most By The Weekend?
Throughout the early hours of tomorrow (Thursday, September 26), we will see low pressure and unsettled conditions initially working their way in across large parts of southwest and southern England.
This unsettled weather will also consist of some very heavy and thundery downpours for large areas within these regions, and with this will come a heightened risk for some additional flooding events on Thursday.
The heavy downpours will also push into large parts of Wales and some parts of central England before also developing in some parts of northern and north-east England later.
Additionally, some heavy showers could also continue into the early part of Friday, when it will also turn quite windy at times from tomorrow (Thursday) in places, particularly in some southern coastal areas, parts of northern/northwest England, and some north sea-facing coastal areas.
Our now 81-day-ahead autumn subscribers forecast for around this part of September and these exact dates stated (see below "quotes" + dated proof):
"It could also turn rather cool and autumnal towards month end, coinciding with unsettled conditions pushing in off the Atlantic to deliver a relatively early wintry blast that could bring snow in September to the 'highest' ground and ski resorts in the north of Scotland."
"A potentially stormy/major storm to monitor for is in and around 23-27 September."
The rest of Friday (September 27) should then start to clear the way for some possible brief respite and somewhat of a warm-up for many heading into this weekend. However, the devil is in the details here, and the use of the word 'brief' as that interchangeable run of some cooler/unsettled to warmer/more settled weather that I concisely covered looks like planning out as expected.
This could even see the unsettled/cooler weather days returning later on Sunday or at the start of next week, and before the more substantial high pressure builds within our own projections for during the first third of October.
My update from several days earlier also stated the following in reference to this exact scenario: "Beyond this period and during later next week actually gives us a number of options ranging from more temporary heat to a continuation of cool and unsettled weather, but I would favour a mix of the two from towards the end of next week."
"This could literally bring a day or two of warm to hot and summery weather and be quickly replaced with more cooler and unsettled weather in the days to follow as the jet stream looks to go a little erratic, which in turn makes the weather much harder to predict and further analysis is required over the coming days."
"However, our forecast indications do suggest a mix of the two and still favour another heat surge or major heat surge for our earlier given dates of in and around 3rd–8th October, but this doesn't mean there will be no unsettled and cooler weather to contend with."
https://exactaweather.com/uk-short-range-weather
Yesterday and overnight also brought the first heavy snow showers and settling snow of this week across the 'highest' ground in Scotland/ski resorts (as within our earlier projections).
Some additional and non-significant wintry weather could also develop across the highest ground once again throughout the early hours of tomorrow (Thursday) in parts of the Cairngorms and the Nevis Range.
Overnight Thursday and throughout much of Friday will then bring an even greater risk for some more notable snow across these regions as unsettled conditions coincide with the colder and optimum temperature for snow in these parts.
James Madden: Exacta Weather
25/09/2024 (05:35)
Final UK & Ireland Final Winter 2024/25 Weather Forecast (5-Pages December-March) + SSW Update + Expected Snow Dates
https://exactaweather.com/autumn-and-winter-2024%2F25
Changes ahead to something much cooler and much more unsettled this week + on cue snow/wintry weather across higher ground, plus later this week and October heat updates...
Firstly, temperatures reached or exceeded a very hot 28°C (82.4F) on Saturday in parts of eastern England, and many others bathed in warm sunshine as the Indian summer continued in parts away from the south and the thunderstorms.
This was something that was never forecast for from elsewhere, as they tried to cover up the extent and intensity of the overall heatwave during last week for some reason.
However, we experienced five successive days of undeniable temperatures exceeding 25°C in some part of the UK during last week (north and south and official heatwave territory, but not as hot as I had expected), and the BBC and MO apps in the days prior were a good 3-6°C off the maximum in reality temperatures on the day (see below links).
There are now a very tricky few weeks to come with a bit of everything in colder weather, stormy conditions, and even further warm to hot weather.
The upcoming week will take a quite big U-turn from in and around midweek (Tuesday/Wednesday) as much colder and more unsettled weather takes over from a somewhat more southerly driven jet stream over several days and as low pressure brings heavy rain and strong winds/gales in places.
Additionally, it will also turn cold enough for wintry weather and/or snow across higher ground and some of the ski resorts from around Tuesday evening and over the next several days (I will post images throughout the week on Facebook and other social media).
This particular period and scenario was also something we had covered in our autumn subscribers report for these EXACT dates from 10-12 weeks in advance, in addition to the previous and multiple heat surges and thunderstorms for September (issued in early July; see page one screenshot below).
https://www.facebook.com/100063588901621/posts/1047321874064100/
Beyond this period and during later this week (around Friday and the weekend) actually gives us a number of options ranging from more temporary heat to a continuation of cool and unsettled weather, but I would favour a mix of the two from towards the end of this week.
This could literally bring a day or two of warm to hot and summery weather and be quickly replaced with more cooler and unsettled weather in the days to follow as the jet stream looks to go a little erratic, which in turn makes the weather much harder to predict and further analysis is required over the coming days.
(This WILL also send the apps and third-party forecasters into total disarray over the coming weeks, and expect NO consistency from them.)
However, our forecast indications do suggest a mix of the two and still favour another heat surge or major heat surge for our earlier given dates of in and around 3rd–8th October (maybe on the later side rather than earlier and I will keep you updated) and possibly from later this week, but this doesn't mean there will be no additional unsettled and cooler weather to contend with in between.
https://www.facebook.com/100063588901621/posts/1046925477437073/
Important: Notable Snow This Week??? + Clear Proof How The Met Office And Certain Media Lie And Manipulate My Forecasts!!!
A quite devious and misleading claim from The Met Office and Birmingham Mail, as I will explain...
Please note that I only check news periodically now, guys, to avoid confusion from conflicting forecasts within the same articles.
https://www.birminghammail.co.uk/news/midlands-news/met-office-speaks-out-over-29971992
My actual report states and always has for several months (even says this in the article itself but shown and promoted in the totally wrong context):
"Plus more NOTABLE snow for the HIGHEST ground and SKI RESORTS. Some wintry weather and more notable September snow is now highly likely across higher parts again during next week."
The Met Office has therefore debunked absolutely nothing here (as it states within the article above), and how certain are they about NO snow across higher ground and the ski resorts during this week??!
This isn't about notable snow this week, and they KNOW I haven't said this, and how do I know this?
Because I have told you all about it before when I was quite ill and that they used to do it then to me all the time, and I stated quite clearly earlier this year that I would defend myself in the future (please read this below).
https://exactaweather.com/the-exacta-weather-story
They know the difference, and this is what I've got right over them, not wrong. 😂 They are a joke!
The original screenshot from early July issued to subscribers is available to view below and depicts the outcome quite differently from how it was approached elsewhere:
https://www.facebook.com/100063588901621/posts/1045435640919390/
Birmingham Mail have also just used this without permission and probably in cohabitation with the Met Office, and it is something I am trying to address with the media, who just use what they like of MY hard work (unfortunately in the public domain) to line their own pockets with advertising revenues.
The timing is also impeccable once again, and as I have got a lot correct of late with absolute proof (when they have got a lot wrong), and additionally, I stated I'm addressing how media use my forecasts only recently, and then I am suddenly misquoted and made to look misleading yet again deliberately in my opinion.
I don't need to lie or twist the truth of my forecast details and let my forecast results speak for themselves with clear proof, but unfortunately others feel the need to do so... 🤔
Apologies everyone, but I'm livid about this, and they have an absolute cheek at trying to pull the wool over everyone's eyes for their own benefit and because of what I've got right recently and to date.
https://exactaweather.com/our-correct-predictions
Regards,
James Madden: Exacta Weather
(September 23, 00:28)
Final Winter 2024/25 (Dec-Mar 5-Pages) + SSW Update + Expected Snow Dates ❄️🌨️🥶☃️
(For those having issues with the normal link, please also try the new one above.)
https://www.paypal.com/ncp/payment/KZUXKRPXWVAD6
Changes ahead to something much cooler next week as the thunderstorms begin, but temperatures still exceeded a warm 25°C for the fourth consecutive day this week, plus the October update and any more heat?
The following and much earlier 'twin September heatwaves' Daily Mirror article that predicted the last heat surge also CORRECTLY stated the following in reference to major high pressure returning for these exact dates:
Madden also reckons temperatures could surge again later in the month, with "another major and moderate to high confidence pressure build" coming for "in and around September 18, possibly a little earlier."
https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/uk-weather-exact-dates-twin-33594892
Unfortunately, this is still not as hot as I had initially expected for this period, but nevertheless, this is still the seventh heat surge since June that has arrived on time via all my short- to moderate-long-range forecasts ranging anywhere between 2 and 14 weeks in advance of actual occurrence.
https://exactaweather.com/uk-long-range-weather
I can also accept being off in the overall intensity and would rather have some errors there than an actual non-event developing on my part.
These earlier updates were posted via social media as a one-off instead of on here to try and establish where and when copying and misuse of our weather reports are coming from (something I will conclusively prove at a later date).
Thunderstorms for the south Friday, but elsewhere will escape them until next week, and you can carry on enjoying the Indian summer before something much colder next week...
Unfortunately, the same cannot be said for parts of southern England, particularly some central regions and southwest England, throughout late afternoon and into tomorrow evening, where some vigorous thunderstorms, heavy downpours, and heavy hail are highly likely to occur.
A continuation of these thundery downpours will also continue to pepper some central and southern areas as they keep bubbling up throughout Friday and into the weekend, whilst elsewhere escapes them altogether and sees a continuation of the Indian summer weather, but a touch cooler than of late.
Our much earlier update from last week stated the following in reference to this:
"Despite the sting being potentially taken out of the extreme temperatures towards the end of the working week, some usable and summery weather could also continue for a number of days afterwards and into and around next weekend (just not as hot or extreme as previous days and bringing this potentially to 7-9 days in duration)."
https://www.facebook.com/100063588901621/posts/1040958261367128/
More Cooler & Some Wintry Weather To Strike On Cue Next Week, Plus More Notable Snow For Higher Ground/Ski Resorts...
Some wintry weather and more notable September snow is now highly likely across higher parts again during next week, and some of the ski resorts can expect an early and decent dusting at times in this same midweek onwards period (Tuesday/Wednesday and over several days the snow risk will be higher).
https://www.facebook.com/100063588901621/posts/pfbid0wdwd9WaUAbytg8jVSXZB5JP2N53XvfxQWp5KVktFXhqt9o8jUScH9p3RLejs9md6l/
Also, as covered in our much earlier reports, from 8–12 weeks in advance for these exact dates (see below).
https://www.facebook.com/100063588901621/posts/1045435640919390/
https://exactaweather.com/autumn-and-winter-2024%2F25
Additionally, the following subscriber reports for September correctly covered the September Indian summer weather and multiple heat surges, whilst also pointing out quite clearly that either side of these heat surges would be riddled with some widespread thundery downpours, hail, and prior to something much cooler, wintry, and more unsettled/stormy during the next week (8–12 weeks ahead of occurrence).
https://www.facebook.com/100063588901621/posts/1045435640919390/
Additionally, our free and detailed heat surge updates and posts also identified the exact dates for both Indian summer weather events in September within all of our moderate to short-range weather forecast updates.
Our several months in advance subscribers forecast for AUTUMN also covered further spells of Indian summer weather during OCTOBER, and our next opportunity for some heat and late summery conditions could arise again in early October and somewhere between the 3rd and 8th of October.
However, confidence is really mixed on this one and nowhere near as high as the other seven heat surges to date since early June that our forecasts have predicted, and our repeat forecast projections also keep showing something quite cold and unsettled within this same period and are of around equal measurement to the heat surge, making this an extremely difficult one to call (further analysis is required over the coming days).
Additionally, an even higher risk period of Indian summer-type weather will also arise after these dates in early October, regardless of this earlier one (with some caveats).
The rest of autumn and into early winter (October-January) plus detailed subscriber reports x 4 and early snow dates are now only 12.00 (was 19.00) to reflect one less report from September.
https://exactaweather.com/autumn-and-winter-2024%2F25
This is currently the only section that is monetised via Exacta Weather.
This works out at just £3 per report for 4 reports in total and is for those in need of a longer-range forecast for autumn and early winter/2025.
1 x 4-page Autumn 2024 report upon purchase (September-December)
1 x SSW report and dates for early winter 2024/25 upon purchase
1 x October 2024 report in September
1 x November 2024 report in October
Instant email delivery upon purchase
The posting below also highlights the multiple and 'major' high-risk SSW events from earlier this year (January and February) and the earlier minor one in November, several months ahead of their occurrence (September 2023).
https://www.facebook.com/share/p/ky24vhpZH3ioyBpV/
The following national news articles (Daily Mirror) also covered our early SSW projections for 2024 and the earlier Nov/Dec cold and snow plus the mild/very mild and unsettled weather conditions that also followed on from this later in that period from several months and weeks ahead.
https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/beast-east-phenomenon-making-return-31070837
https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/uk-weather-expert-says-snow-31396644
https://exactaweather.com/autumn-and-winter-2024%2F25
James Madden: Exacta Weather
September 20, 2024, 21:00
www.exactaweather.com
Major High Pressure Build & Indian Summer Arrive On Cue From Today + Also Expect Hotter On The Day Temps...
Today is the 17th of September, and that well-promised and significant area of high pressure is now upon us for the exact dates we opted for quite vocally, and throughout this afternoon we will see temperatures rising to at least the low to mid-20s in parts of England, Ireland, Scotland, and Wales.
This widespread warmth and final on-the-day temperatures will also be a good several degrees above the September seasonal average of around 16-17°C at this time of the year, plus even hotter on-the-day temperatures are to follow over the coming days.
This type of high-pressure setup, bringing the warm to hot daytime temperatures, will also bring clearer skies and some cooler or temporary nippy temperatures during the evenings, particularly more so in parts further north.
However, the strong late summer and early autumn sunshine and rising daytime warm to hot temperatures will quash this quite quickly and is an area for others to concentrate their efforts on who never saw this coming prior to occurrence.
To conclude for now, this is still a very significant area of high pressure that will send temperatures soaring to much higher values than expected and for the time of the year over the coming days.
ALL of my September moderate to long range forecasts and the subscriber updates included the wording "expect September heat surges with CAVEATS" (please check for yourself), and all previous updates also opted for a minimum duration of around 3-5 days for this particular heat surge (please check this too).
Additionally, the following and much earlier Daily Mirror article that predicted the last heat surge also CORRECTLY stated the following in reference to a major and returning high pressure build for these EXACT dates:
Madden also reckons temperatures could surge again later in the month, with "another major and moderate to high confidence pressure build" coming for "in and around September 18, possibly a little earlier."
Madden said: "This would have the potential to bring even hotter temperatures across our shores than the current warm to hot period."
https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/uk-weather-exact-dates-twin-33594892
James Madden: Exacta Weather (17/09/24 - 00:00)
Some decent cold and early winter weather could be on offer at times this year and prior to 2025 for the UK and Ireland, but with some caveats and several expected stormy periods...
🍁🍂🌬️🌧️❄️🌨️☃️
The rest of autumn and into early winter (October-January) plus detailed subscriber reports x 4 and early snow dates are now only 12.00 to reflect one less report from September.
https://exactaweather.com/autumn-and-winter-2024%2F25
This is currently the only section that is monetised via Exacta Weather to pay for the website and other costs.
This works out at just £3 per report for 4 reports in total and is for those in need of a longer-range forecast for autumn and early winter/2025.
1 x 4-page Autumn 2024 report upon purchase (September-December)
1 x SSW report and dates for early winter 2024/25 upon purchase
1 x October 2024 report in September
1 x November 2024 report in October
Instant email delivery upon purchase
The posting below also highlights the multiple and 'major' high-risk SSW events from earlier this year (January and February) and the earlier minor one in November, several months ahead of their occurrence (September 2023).
https://www.facebook.com/share/p/ky24vhpZH3ioyBpV/
The following national news articles (Daily Mirror) also covered our early and correct SSW projections for early 2024 and the earlier Nov/Dec cold and snow plus the mild/very mild and unsettled weather conditions that also followed on from this later in that period from several months and weeks ahead.
https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/beast-east-phenomenon-making-return-31070837
https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/uk-weather-expert-says-snow-31396644
Indian Summer Returning On Cue From This Weekend + Very HOT To Extreme Heat Also Set To Arrive For The UK & Ireland Within Days!!!
The well-promised area of significant high pressure will now start to influence our weather from this weekend, and some prolonged periods of sunshine and settled weather will begin to kick in across some large parts of the UK and Ireland.
This will more than likely result in warmer conditions than are currently being projected from elsewhere on the actual day, particularly across the southern half of the country on Sunday, when it could start to become warm to hot in these parts and some locations further north.
From around Monday and through to around Thursday or Friday of next week, we will then see this high pressure intensifying across our shores to produce some very hot to extreme heat for the UK and Ireland, and a pinnacle point of this particular heat surge and for the most extreme of temperatures can be expected to develop within this period, particularly for the Monday to Wednesday period (September 16-18).
To sum up the potential temperature types in this period, they do look continually very hot to extreme across all computer models, especially for the start of autumn and September.
The lower end of the scale will see maximum temperatures in the low to mid 30s in the hottest spots of the south of the UK to begin with, whilst the higher end could see temperatures ranging in the mid to high 30s at the very least.
These types of temperatures are also unlikely to just be restricted to parts of the south of the UK on this occasion, and as this high pressure cell moves further north and intensifies across our shores, many parts of England, Wales, Scotland, and Ireland will all experience some quite intense heat in the mid to high 20s to low 30s at the very least.
Additionally, parts to the north and in Ireland and Scotland could actually become hotter than parts further south and the capital (London) on certain days as this heat surge peaks during this period next week, and despite the sting being potentially taken out of the extreme temperatures towards the end of the working week, some usable and summery weather could also continue for a number of days afterwards (just not as hot or extreme as previous days and bringing this potentially to 7-9 days in duration).
So throughout this weekend and most of the working week during next week is at least 5-7 days of varying warm to hot to extreme heat to some then potentially less hot but extra summery days to follow (this could therefore be termed a PROLONGED and SIGNIFICANT period of Indian summer weather and warm to hot to extreme heat).
The following and earlier Daily Mirror article that predicted the last heat surge during last week also stated: Madden also reckons temperatures could surge again later in the month, with "another major and moderate to high confidence pressure build" coming for "in and around September 18, possibly a little earlier." Madden said: "This would have the potential to bring even hotter temperatures across our shores than the current warm to hot period."
https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/uk-weather-exact-dates-twin-33594892
Additionally, an even earlier Yahoo News article that also predicted the last heat surge stated the following in reference to potential September temperature records being broken for the UK and Ireland (the early September heat surge fell short of any record temperatures, but this one will be much closer and hotter in comparison):
Exacta Weather forecaster James Madden is anticipating an even hotter scenario, suggesting that these "very warm conditions" could turn into a "significant heat event." He says temperatures might soar past the all-time September record, which stands at 35.6C (set in Bawtry, South Yorkshire, in 1906).
"There is also growing confidence in possible record September temperatures in parts of Ireland (29.1C) and Northern Ireland (28C). Unfortunately, forecasting confidence is less confident about the Scotland September record of 32.2C from 1906 (118 years) being breached."
https://uk.style.yahoo.com/uk-heatwave-could-break-118-114449814.html
An additional Daily Star article also stated:
James Madden at Exacta Weather has gone as far as NAMING the EXACT date we're in for more scorching weather. The expert wrote, in an update on Facebook: “Hot weather potential is returning for the exact dates of September 18, possibly a little earlier—something we expect to intensify further around these dates. “This would have the potential to bring even hotter temperatures across our shores than the last warm to hot period during last week."
https://www.dailystar.co.uk/news/latest-news/weather-forecaster-names-exact-date-33610810
We have also gained nearly 250K views on our top 3 X viral videos plus thousands of likes for our previously correct heat surges and the pending one in our first several weeks on a new platform (TikTok). ❤️
https://www.tiktok.com/@exactaweather?_t=8pazJ9fY4tU&_r=1
Additionally, just to reassure everyone that a major hot to extreme heat event is in the offing, below are the other six heat events that occurred for the exact dates since June of this year, and regardless of duration, they still occurred and were all much hotter than standard meteorology and TV forecasts ever indicated (making myself look wrong). Plus proof of this offered below (dated links).
These were all additionally followed up with shorter range forecasts that pinpointed the exact day of arrival in most instances, or give or take a day or two.
1. The late June heat surge with temperatures hitting 30°C and the first hottest day of the year/summer from 4 weeks in advance. ✅
The start of summer was also warm over a few days, with temperatures hitting 24°C in the far north and south (something not shown in the apps or other forecasts in the days prior, but also not as hot or extensive as I had expected or forecast). ❌
2. The late July and early August heatwaves x 2 also arrived for the exact and almost exact dates and reregistered the hottest day of the year twice from 12-14 weeks in advance. ✅✅
3. The next heat surge for in and around August 10 from several weeks ahead also occurred on the exact dates with temperatures hitting a very hot 34.8C (not very far from the mid to high 30s after all and something never forecast from elsewhere). ✅
https://www.facebook.com/100063588901621/posts/1013617134101241/
4. The next heat surge during late August then also occurred for in and around August 25 with temperatures exceeding 30°C once again (something never forecast from elsewhere). ✅
5. The most recent heat surge during early September also occurred on time and brought temperatures close to 30°C on consecutive days once again (something never forecast from elsewhere). ✅
6. Another high confidence and potentially the hottest and most widespread heat surge of them all, and number seven of the summer and autumn seasons on my part is now looking extremely favourable over several days at the very least for the UK and Ireland for in and around September 18, possibly a little earlier. ✅❓
https://exactaweather.com/summer-2024-free-report
https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/exact-date-uk-bask-scorching-33061268
https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/uk-faces-high-30cs-heatwave-33239125.amp
https://www.facebook.com/100063588901621/posts/995325239263764/?app=fbl
https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/uk-weather-exact-date-next-33490607
https://www.facebook.com/100063588901621/posts/1013617134101241/
https://www.gbnews.com/weather/uk-hot-weather-sun-autumn-september-2024
https://www.facebook.com/100063588901621/posts/1033258252137129/
https://www.birminghammail.co.uk/news/midlands-news/uk-set-indian-summer-september-29550505.amp
https://www.facebook.com/100063588901621/posts/1032900622172892/
https://uk.style.yahoo.com/twin-september-heatwaves-could-see-152832730.html
https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/uk-weather-exact-dates-twin-33594892
https://www.dailystar.co.uk/news/latest-news/weather-forecaster-names-exact-date-33610810
https://www.tiktok.com/@exactaweather?_t=8pazJ9fY4tU&_r=1
Unfortunately, towards month end it looks like bringing a return to some much cooler and more unsettled weather conditions at times that could bring some further wintry weather in addition to the on-cue arrival of the first snow of the season in the Cairngorms yesterday (image available below).
Happy Friday, everyone, and enjoy the impending hot to extreme heat, but also take care and check on those more vulnerable...
Regards,
James Madden: Exacta Weather
(September 13, 2024 - 01:00)
Rest of autumn and into early winter (Oct-Jan) detailed subscriber reports x 4 are now only 12.00 to reflect one less report from September.
Temperatures peak at a very hot 34.8°C, but turning much cooler and more unsettled. When is the next heat surge likely?
It was the hottest day of the year earlier today, with temperatures falling just short of 35°C (34.8C).
Our detailed posting below and via Facebook above from 4 weeks in advance clearly depicts the incoming heat event for these exact dates by stating:
"The next opportunity of much 'higher' confidence has been repeatedly showing in our forecasts for several weeks now for in and around August 10, and the overall period of August 10-15 looks extremely favourable for some kind of major heat surge due to a strong area of high pressure pushing in across our shores (UK and Ireland)."
"It is important to note that these potential heatwaves or heat surges in August are bonus heatwaves, so to speak, and were not actually part of our original long-range summer forecast, for which we had expected a quick reversion to the predominant cooler and unsettled conditions of much of the summer to date once again."
"However, as with the mid-to-late June heat surge with temperatures exceeding 30°C, which we identified and repeated from late May onwards due to some earlier and repeated forecast indicators that were not in our original projections (still a long range forecast in itself), and this is pretty much the same for this one in and around August 10."
https://www.facebook.com/100063588901621/posts/995325239263764/?app=fbl
Our much earlier forecast indications for this period were also quoted in the national news several weeks ahead of time (Daily Mirror).
"Madden also identified around August 10 to August 15 as when this second "heat surge" will strike."
https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/uk-faces-high-30cs-heatwave-33239125.amp
The BBC and Met Office apps were almost 10°C out (9.8C) with maximum temperatures in the UK for this period! 🌞 🔥 🥵
Our earlier and dated posting is below:
https://www.facebook.com/100063588901621/posts/1011786310950990/
Our posting from last week in reference to today's maximum temperatures of at least 34°C!
https://www.facebook.com/100063588901621/posts/1013617134101241/
Signals are ever-increasing for the hot to very hot weather to return during late August/later next week and into September...
There are currently some increasing signals for another major heat surge during late August or for one to develop over several days in and around August 20–25 (same as our weekend update on this).
Four consecutive heat surges have occurred for almost or on the exact dates on our part throughout this summer in repeated reports and updates dating anywhere from 4 to 16 weeks in advance, which therefore increases confidence to something moderately higher.
Another hot to very hot period from another high pressure build is now gaining strength for our originally earmarked period to subscribers and our earlier updates for around August 20–25, and is also something I have been covering as a possibility for recent updates.
Additionally, these high pressure rises are even more confident to continue into September at times, but with some notable caveats that have been covered in the subscriber reports and also something that I will post more details on at a later date.
Unfortunately, there is still a quite prolonged and much cooler and unsettled theme on the cards for many prior to this next heat surge, and this is also something I have been forewarning of repeatedly for much of the second half of August.
The following and subsequent dated website and Facebook updates from last week also stated the following in reference to this:
"Unfortunately, beyond this upcoming weekend does look rather cool and unsettled for the foreseeable, with the only crumb of hope coming from a potentially 'low to moderate' confidence heat burst later in August as the cool and unsettled theme becomes the more predominant feature from a more southerly driven jet stream (something we have covered predominantly over the past several months)."
https://www.facebook.com/100063588901621/posts/1011786310950990/
"Additionally, from in and around next Wednesday (August 14th) or possibly earlier, we will see a more prolonged run for a southerly driven jet stream developing, which will in turn bring a much cooler and unsettled theme for the foreseeable future for many (you have been warned), and it could also feel quite autumnal at times for the height of summer and August."
https://www.facebook.com/100063588901621/posts/1012948724168082/
"However, from Tuesday and Wednesday of next week, we will see areas further north turning gradually and significantly cooler and more unsettled, and this will eventually drag in most, if not all, parts of the country for a potentially prolonged period and somewhat of a potentially widespread thundery breakdown as next week progresses."
https://www.facebook.com/100063588901621/posts/1013617134101241/
The subsequent Daily Mirror articles from earlier last month (July) and earlier last week also stated:
Madden reckons the second half of August will bring "some much cooler and unsettled weather."
https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/uk-faces-high-30cs-heatwave-33239125.amp
Exacta Weather forecaster James Madden said: "At the very least, we are going to see temperatures well in excess of 30C to 35C in the hottest parts of the country later this week!"
Madden did add that, after this upcoming weekend, conditions do "look rather cool and unsettled for the foreseeable."
https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/uk-weather-exact-dates-heatwave-33398643
But the summer and sun will still be returning, plus for Ireland too.
More forecast details are to follow on this shortly.
James Madden: Exacta Weather
12/08/2024, 20:00
UK & Ireland Autumn and Winter 2024/25 Weather Reports 🍂🍃❄️🌨️🥶
https://exactaweather.com/autumn-and-winter-2024%2F25
This is currently the only section that is monetized via Exacta Weather, and any revenue generated will simply be reinvested in trying to cover running costs and future free services via the website or apps.
This works out at less than £4 per report for 5 reports in total and is for those in need of a longer-range forecast for business or commercial requirements.
1 x 4-page Autumn 2024 report upon purchase (September - December)
1 x SSW report and dates for early winter 2024/25 upon purchase
1 x September 2024 report in August
1 x October 2024 report in September
1 x November 2024 report in October
Instant email delivery upon purchase
https://exactaweather.com/autumn-and-winter-2024%2F25
Temperatures start to rise today as a HOT SUMMER WEEKEND arrives on cue for many!
From today (Thursday), we will see high pressure starting to push in across our shores, and this will start to influence a significant rise in temperatures from today and into this weekend.
This will initially see temperatures reaching or nearing 20°C throughout this afternoon quite widely, and some parts of the southeast could see temperatures reaching or passing 25°C later today.
Throughout tomorrow (Friday), we will once again see temperatures reaching or nearing 20°C quite widely, and the heat will start to become more extensive across parts of southern and eastern England, where temperatures will rise into the mid- to high 20s in some places during Friday afternoon.
A similar theme and temperatures will continue into Saturday (10th AUGUST), before things really turn up a notch throughout Sunday and into Monday, when temperatures could reach as high as 32-34°C in some parts of southern and eastern England.
Additionally, temperatures are also likely to reach into the mid- to high 20s at the peak of this in many other parts of the country during this Sunday to Monday period.
Even some heat-starved and large parts of Ireland and certain parts of Scotland are also likely to see temperatures ranging in the low to mid-20s at the peak of these developments during this same period, particularly on Sunday.
Warm to summery conditions but not as hot as the previous days, then look to cling on for at least another 2-4 days in parts of the south of the country during the next week to begin with.
However, from Tuesday and Wednesday of next week, we will see areas further north turning gradually and significantly cooler and more unsettled, and this will eventually drag in most, if not all, parts of the country for a potentially prolonged period and somewhat of a potentially widespread thundery breakdown as next week progresses.
Our update from earlier in the week also stated the following in reference to the above forecast details when there were no such indications from elsewhere:
"From in and around Wednesday and THURSDAY, we will see temperatures rising significantly once again as high pressure rises across our shores throughout this period and into THIS WEEKEND, delivering a much more summery and hot theme than current app indications."
"Another forced check of the current BBC and Met Office apps for this period and later this week are showing some very unsettled conditions and temperatures no higher than 19°C for my own location in Lancashire and no higher than 25°C for London."
Our much earlier forecast indications for this period in late June were also quoted in the national news in early July (Daily Mirror).
The same article also correctly covered the mid- and late-July heat surges and the incoming one at present before any other forecaster or forecasting company that is finally in recognition of this now.
"Madden also identified around August 10 to August 15 as when this second "heat surge" will strike."
"Madden reckons the second half of August will bring "some much cooler and unsettled weather."
https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/uk-faces-high-30cs-heatwave-33239125.amp
James Madden: Exacta Weather
08/08/2024 - 05:00
UK & Ireland Autumn and Winter 2024/25 Weather Reports 🍂🍃❄️🌨️🥶
The forecasts are reduced by 50% in a limited-time offer until 5 p.m.
https://exactaweather.com/autumn-and-winter-2024%2F25
War Of The Weathermen Important Update...
I've literally only just spotted this one now, everyone, as I've started checking news and media articles periodically (to avoid any confusion from other contributors within the same articles for myself).
It is unusual for a national news article to do such a piece, but there are also some very true statements contained throughout by myself, and the Daily Star has done a great job of covering this "war of the weathermen." 😂
I wondered why the Met Office tried dressing up a new type of long-range weather forecast recently too. 😂
Thanks
https://www.dailystar.co.uk/news/latest-news/weathermen-war-met-office-slammed-33381917
Additionally, all our correct forecast predictions since 2010 are contained within the following links below, plus proof of this (something similar from a 170-year establishment compared to my 14 years would be nice to see):
https://exactaweather.com/the-exacta-weather-story
https://exactaweather.com/our-correct-predictions
James Madden: Exacta Weather
07/08/2024 - 07:00
