Much hotter conditions are finally gaining recognition from elsewhere as the next heat surge and extreme temperatures arrive on cue!
The third-party weather forecasts and various apps are now finally starting to become aware of the incoming hot weather over the next several days.
However, they are still quite far away from what the actual temperature values will rise to in reality from tomorrow and through to around Wednesday or Thursday of next week, at the very least.
Additionally, temperatures could still reach as high as the mid- to high 20s in parts of the northern half of the country in this developing period, and 30°C or more still can't be ruled out in certain parts.
However, parts of the southern half of the country and particularly parts of central and southern England could see the hottest temperatures extending into the mid- to high 30s (extreme) at the peak of this from the mid- to end of the next working week. Overnight temperatures will also struggle to go below or even stay above 20°C in places within this period.
After this next period of major heat and from later next week, it is becoming more favourable for a brief run of somewhat cooler and more unsettled conditions prior to the next heat surge for in and August 10 (10–15).
This projected unsettled period is something that requires further analysis over the coming days and isn't something I completely trust due to an underestimation of the current strength of the jet stream and high pressure intensification across our shores for this period.
However, there are some repeated indicators for this scenario to occur or have some kind of influence that simply can't be discarded as of yet and is something I have been caught out with before within my old forecasts, hence a bit of caution from myself.
Again, a few more days of analysis are required, and I feel this less favourable weather scenario will become somewhat more diluted as the major high pressure build begins and intensifies across our shores from this weekend and into next week.
However, we must take nothing away from the types of hot to extreme temperatures that we can now fully expect to develop over the next 5–6 days at the very least, as it's going to get very hot for many and much hotter than the current app and TV forecasts, which are now rising on cue day by day.
Our update from earlier this week, when there were no such indications from elsewhere, stated:
"The bigger and better changes for this summer will begin to occur around Friday and throughout the next weekend as high pressure begins to build in and send temperatures rising significantly for all parts of the UK and Ireland, throughout the remainder of the month, and into early August over a high-confidence 1-2 week period."
"Additionally, it is within this developing period that we will now see those temperatures rising to some possibly extreme values of in and around the mid to high 30s in the hottest parts of the country as a potentially high-risk heat dome scenario begins to take hold across our shores."
"Even parts further north and in much of Scotland and Ireland are also likely to see a consistent run of prolonged temperatures in the mid to high 20s, at the very least as high pressure becomes the more predominant feature to deliver lots of on-cue and widespread summery weather, hot conditions, and extreme heat over the coming weeks."
https://exactaweather.com/uk-short-range-weather
An earlier Daily Mirror article at the start of the week titled "UK temperatures to go well above average and 30°C again from this weekend" also stated before any other forecast or forecasters:
Madden predicts this heatwave could persist through the end of July and into August, potentially marking a "one to two-week period" of high temperatures starting this weekend.
Madden said: "It is within this developing period that we will now see those temperatures rising to some possibly extreme values of in and around the mid to high 30Cs in the hottest parts of the country as a potentially high-risk heat dome scenario begins to take hold across our shores.
https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/uk-weather-heat-dome-send-33294801
Additional postings also seriously questioned the then-current BBC and Met Office temperature projections for this period by also stating:
"It is literally beyond my comprehension why public service providers for the weather, such as the BBC and Met Office, are not covering this developing heat to extreme heat situation better and the actual types of temperatures we can now expect to see in reality within this developing period from Sunday onwards."
"Watch this space, everyone, as it's about to become very hot, if not extremely hot, for many parts of the country over the coming days!"
https://vm.tiktok.com/ZGeW5ScwU/
An additional Daily Mirror article from early July also stated the following in reference to mid- and late-July:
"This will allow for our shores (UK and Ireland) to come under a much warmer airflow over an extended period from this pattern change, and it will also place us in an extremely favourable position for high pressure rises and some hot to very hot temperatures on a widespread scale from in and around mid-July and throughout much of the second half of the month."
https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/uk-weather-exact-date-mini-33142029.amp
Our 12- to 14-week in advance forecast was a "high confidence" scenario for this to occur or start developing, particularly in and around July 15–17 onwards and throughout the second half of July.
https://exactaweather.com/summer-2024-free-report
Time for all the other forecasts and forecasters to start pretending that they forecast this incoming heat all along, but we all know the real 'truth' and all the proof you need for myself in terms of short, moderate, and long range forecasting for this exact period has been provided above.
Unfortunately, the ineptness of pretty much all other forecasts and apps of late cast some serious doubt on our repeated forecast details for this exact period over a transparently proven and extended period on my part.
Seriously, guys, I was literally sitting here once again with people paying little or no attention or interaction to our posts, with only a small number or a handful of post likes and post shares from our 'in the know' regulars who have followed us for years (thank you to those individuals).
Enjoy everyone, but on a more serious note, also take care during the more extreme temperature values at the peak of this heat.
James Madden: Exacta Weather
(27/07/2025 - 00:28)
Autumn, early winter 2024/25, and SSW weather reports: will it snow? ☀️🍂❄️🥶
Major heat and potentially extreme temperatures are set to arrive on cue this weekend, and the apps are way, way off! 😡🥵🌞
From this Sunday to around Wednesday at the very least of next week, we will now see a significant build of high pressure and a massive rise in temperatures across our shores (UK and Ireland).
The overall temperatures will now literally skyrocket for this 3- to 4-day period, and there is no reason as to why we won't see top temperatures in and around the mid-30s developing in parts across the southern half of the country during the peak of this.
Additionally, parts further north and in parts as far north as Scotland and Ireland will also benefit from these high pressure rises and will see temperatures peaking in the mid to low 20s at the very least; even values close to 30°C could be reached or breached in these parts within this period.
However, having done a forced check of the latest BBC app projections, they are an absolute joke and way off what they should be for this developing period and beyond. My location in Lancashire goes no higher than 19-20°C over the next several days, and parts of London are also hovering in and around or a little over the mid-20s for this same period from the apps for this Sunday to Wednesday period.
Why is this important?
This is important as heat above 30°C kills and increases fatality rates (a fact!). And no matter which way you try to look at it, with temperatures now extremely likely to be in this range within the coming days and into next week, it simply heightens the overall urgency of the situation.
It is literally beyond my comprehension why public service providers for the weather, such as the BBC and Met Office, are not covering this developing heat to extreme heat situation better and the actual types of temperatures we can now expect to see in reality within this developing period from Sunday onwards.
Additionally, we have also been here before very recently with the BBC (Broadcasting Biased C***) when temperatures fell just short of 32°C in London and it was also very warm to hot elsewhere, when the apps were up to a whopping 8°C off the hottest temperature values from just a few days ahead (something I vehemently refuted at the time with proof images of this in the following dated posting below).
There are now also some further excellent and very strong indicators for high pressure to become the more predominant feature from Sunday and into and around early August, with some small deviations possible from time to time on certain days.
Additionally, the signals are also good to strong for another major heat surge in and around August 10-15, possibly a little earlier. Our much earlier posting and public weather update for the rest of July and August also stated all of the following in reference to this:
"This gradual and significant change in our overall weather pattern over the next several days to some very warm to very hot conditions will now also pave the way for a number of additional heat surges or major heat surges during as early as next week, late July, and into August (UK and Ireland)."
"The next opportunity following on from the late July heat surge is now 'moderate to high' confidence, and we could see the theme staying warm and summery at the very least to potentially hot or very hot in places over a number of days during the early part of August."
"The second opportunity of much 'higher' confidence has been repeatedly showing in our forecasts for several weeks now for in and around August 10, and the overall period of August 10-15 looks extremely favourable for some kind of major heat surge due to a strong area of high pressure pushing in across our shores (UK and Ireland)."
"High pressure will return quite quickly and become the more predominant feature during late July to continue this on cue and expected "pattern change" with some variations from warm/hot to possible extreme temperatures in terms of heat that could see the hottest spots reaching into the mid to high 30s during as early as late July and again in August."
The following Daily Mirror article from July 1 also doubled down on this and covered the recent 32°C scenario for mid-July and also stated the following for this upcoming period and the second half of July:
"This will allow for our shores (UK and Ireland) to come under a much warmer airflow over an extended period from this pattern change, and it will also place us in an extremely favourable position for high pressure rises and some hot to very hot temperatures on a widespread scale from in and around mid-July and throughout much of the second half of the month."
https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/uk-weather-exact-date-mini-33142029.amp
An additional Daily Mirror article also trebled down on this and stated the following for the correct dates of this last heat surge and what to expect during late July and into August.
Madden said hot conditions will start to kick in from around July 19 to July 20 and into August. "We could [then] see the theme staying warm and summery at the very least to potentially hot or very hot in places over a number of days during late July and the early part of August."
He also identified August 10 to August 15 as when this second "heat surge" will strike. Madden reckons the second half of August will bring "some much cooler and unsettled weather."
However, a cooler end to August might be a welcome relief given just how high Madden reckons temperatures might go at the start of the month.
He said: "In terms of the highest temperatures during these heat surges during late July and August, we could easily see top temperatures in the mid to high 30s across the southern half of the country, with temperatures close to or hitting 30C elsewhere still to come throughout this summer during the most extreme heat and high pressure rises across our shores."
https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/uk-faces-high-30cs-heatwave-33239125.amp
Our full summer 2024 report from early April covers most, if not all, occurrences and the general patterns to date for June and July:
https://exactaweather.com/summer-2024-free-report
James Madden: Exacta Weather (25/07/24 - 06:00)
Autumn, early winter 2024/25, and SSW weather reports: will it snow? ☀️🍂❄️🥶
Warm to hot again by midweek, plus, on cue, high pressure rises to make things even hotter later next week and into early August for everyone!
Initially, high pressure will build in across our shores and influence some further warm to hot conditions, with variation from region to region for around Tuesday and Wednesday of next week.
This could see temperatures reaching at least the mid to high 20s in parts of the south and the low to mid 20s at least in some other parts further north. Any slight tweaks could also possibly see 30°C being reached again in some parts of the far south.
The midweek period and the day or so following on from this might also not be entirely perfect for all as some localised showers and variable and high cloud cover will exist in places, but it will still feel very warm to hot in places as the strong midsummer sunshine starts to make its presence felt once again.
However, the bigger and better changes for this summer will begin to occur around Friday and throughout the next weekend as high pressure begins to build in and send temperatures rising significantly for all parts of the UK and Ireland, throughout the remainder of the month, and into early August over a high-confidence 1-2 week period.
Additionally, it is within this developing period that we will now see those temperatures rising to some possibly extreme values of in and around the mid to high 30s in the hottest parts of the country as a potentially high-risk heat dome scenario begins to take hold across our shores.
Even parts further north and in much of Scotland and Ireland are also likely to see a consistent run of prolonged temperatures in the mid to high 20s, at the very least as high pressure becomes the more predominant feature to deliver lots of on-cue and widespread summery weather, hot conditions, and extreme heat over the coming weeks.
The following Daily Mirror article from early July stated the following in reference to this:
"This will allow for our shores (UK and Ireland) to come under a much warmer airflow over an extended period from this pattern change, and it will also place us in an extremely favourable position for high pressure rises and some hot to very hot temperatures on a widespread scale from in and around mid-July and throughout much of the SECOND HALF of the month."
https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/uk-weather-exact-date-mini-33142029.amp
Our 12- to 14-week in advance forecast was a "high confidence" scenario for this to occur or start developing, particularly in and around July 15–17 onwards and throughout the second half of July.
https://exactaweather.com/summer-2024-free-report
Here come some long-awaited and well-promised prolonged summer conditions and warm to hot temperatures for everyone!
James Madden: Exacta Weather
21/07/2024 - 14:28
Autumn & Early Winter 2024/25 Plus SSW Weather Updates 🍂🍁🌪️🌨️🥶
A warm to hot "pattern change" is arriving on time, but how long will it last and how settled, hot, or extreme will it become?
I don't watch TV forecasts or check app projections for obvious reasons and to avoid distraction from my own forecast projections, but quite a few people left comments on my posts last week about TV forecasters and other weather pages laughing at the possibility of temperatures reaching 30°C during THIS WEEK!
However, today is July 17, and temperatures are expected to reach or exceed the mid-20s or higher this afternoon in parts of southern England, with warm-to-humid temperatures developing elsewhere.
Thursday, July 18, and Friday, July 19, will see maximum temperatures climbing even higher, and we should see temperatures reaching into the mid- to high 20s across large parts of the country, particularly across parts to the south and east of the country, when temperatures could reach or exceed the 30°C mark for the second time this summer in London.
This could also re-register the hottest day of the year for 2024, particularly in parts of the south and east on Friday.
Throughout the upcoming weekend and into early next week, we will see a temporary dip in these temperatures to something more comfortable, and with this comes the risk of some temporary showers or thundery downpours from across the north and sometimes in the south, but it will still be warm, with more in the way of summery and warm temperatures in comparison to late, particularly in the southern half of the country.
However, it is certainly nowhere near the widespread stormy and cool projections that were being projected from elsewhere and from the Met Office for this upcoming period, and one of my most frequent comments here of late has been as to how they are largely underestimating this upcoming "pattern change."
Additionally, this potentially unsettled period is also something that we have covered repeatedly and also downplayed somewhat but never ruled out during recent weeks (ahead of all other forecasters).
These sudden rises in temperatures are also something that nearly all of the main third-party forecasters and many weather apps have not been aware of until the past 24-48 hours or so, and they are something we have literally maintained would occur with 100% confidence in various posts, comments, and a whole multitude of national news articles, as I am about to conclusively prove in the below.
High pressure will return quite quickly and become the more predominant feature during next week and during late July to continue this on cue and expected "pattern change" with some variations from warm/hot to possible extreme temperatures in terms of heat that could see the hottest spots reaching into the mid to high 30s during late July and again in August.
The following Daily Mirror article from EARLY JULY also covered this developing scenario for MID-JULY by stating the following for this period and the SECOND HALF of July:
"This will allow for our shores (UK and Ireland) to come under a much warmer airflow over an extended period from this pattern change, and it will also place us in an extremely favourable position for high pressure rises and some hot to very hot temperatures on a widespread scale from in and around MID-JULY and throughout much of the SECOND HALF of the month."
https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/uk-weather-exact-date-mini-33142029.amp
We also posted the following during EARLY JULY, in reference to conflicting ideas and forecasts from elsewhere for this period:
"Unfortunately, other forecasts or forecasters who can't or won't forecast this far ahead simply confuse the issue as they don't really know intrinsically what will happen the next few days, never mind from next week and in and around mid-July."
"However, you can almost pretty much GUARANTEE that they will be all over it when it occurs, pretending like they forecast the hot temperatures they will be shouting about!"
https://www.facebook.com/100063588901621/posts/989409933188628/
The following posting from early July also stated:
"Unfortunately, others will make more of this and try and pinpoint everything on NEXT WEEK for their own reasons and to make me look wrong, but I can't have been any more clearer on the dates for this, which is now EXTREMELY LIKELY to happen."
https://www.facebook.com/100063588901621/posts/990023123127309/
The following Daily Mirror article titled 'Get the BBQs Ready' also recently stated (when there were no such indications from elsewhere still):
Exacta Weather's James Madden has now warned that Brits are in for a scorcher in their latest forecast. Madden announced: "Get the barbecues at the ready, as a big change and some big heat are now set to arrive on cue!
He added: "The expected and well-promised pattern change for July 10-20, particularly July 15-17, is now on and imminent for some very hot to potentially extreme heat, which is now on the horizon for many parts of the country within the next several days."
**We said nothing about 40°C in any of our updates or in "quotes." This is an editorial error.**
https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/uk-weather-exact-date-maps-33186429
Finally, the following posting from last week then doubled down on all of the early July forecast information by 'scoffing' at the then current BBC app projections, GUARANTEEING much warmer temperatures for this period, and also stating, "No wonder, no one believes it or doesn't think a major heatwave is coming!".
The temperatures for London are now up to 6°C higher than these earlier app projections pictured below and are possibly still being undervalued by a few degrees.
https://www.facebook.com/100063588901621/posts/pfbid0AEjuVXWgCjcCt2q3ucDxRqWu9F9jtj4c7TuzLTyZeGuNYMM4mSdStRmrxo4t7WoPl/
Our 12- to 14-week in advance forecast also covered the dates of July 10–20 as a "high confidence" scenario for this to occur or start developing, particularly in and around July 15–17 onwards and throughout the second half of July.
https://exactaweather.com/summer-2024-free-report
James Madden: Exacta Weather
(17/06/2024: 00:05)
Autumn & Early Winter 2024/25 Plus SSW Updates Now Live 🍂🍁🌪️🌨️🥶
UK & Ireland July and August update: An upcoming pattern change to warm to hot conditions in July will bring further bonus heatwaves or excessive heat into August!
A gradual and significant change in our overall weather pattern to very warm to very hot conditions throughout next week and late July (particularly for several days or more from around July 19–20) will also pave the way for a number of additional heat surges or major heatwaves during August.
It could now also become very hot or exceptionally hot prior to these August heat surges and for in and around July 25th.
The first opportunity following on from the late July heat surge is 'moderate' confidence, and we could see the theme staying warm and summery at the very least to potentially hot or very hot in places over a number of days during the early part of August.
The second opportunity of much 'higher' confidence has been repeatedly showing in our forecasts for several weeks now for in and around August 10, and the overall period of August 10-15 looks extremely favourable for some kind of major heat surge due to a strong area of high pressure pushing in across our shores (UK and Ireland).
It is important to note that these potential heatwaves or heat surges in August are bonus heatwaves, so to speak, and were not actually part of our original long-range summer forecast, for which we had expected a quick reversion to the predominant cooler and unsettled conditions of much of the summer to date once again.
However, as with the mid-to-late June heat surge with temperatures exceeding 30°C, which we identified and repeated from late May onwards due to some earlier and repeated forecast indicators that were not in our original projections (still a long range forecast in itself), and this is pretty much the same for this one in and around August 10.
https://m.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=960691106060511&id=100063588901621
These August forecast changes are also in part due to the slightly later and back-end arrival of this significant pattern change for the given period of July 10–20 onwards in our several month-ahead projections for this summer in the above report.
Unfortunately, the same forecast indicators are also seeing some much cooler and unsettled weather returning in August, particularly during the second half of the month and possibly a little earlier, when it could become predominant and potentially autumnal or even stormy at times, but some short summery bursts could still be possible at times, particularly across more southern regions.
This cooler and unsettled weather was also covered in our long range summer for August, just as it was for prolonged periods throughout June and the first half of July in the following report available to subscribers since early April below.
https://exactaweather.com/summer-2024-free-report
However, we are now about to see the most significant pattern change of this summer gradually taking place throughout the upcoming week and for in or around and extremely close to our 12 to 13 week in advance projections for this, for in and around July 10-20 (see above report).
In terms of the highest temperatures during these heat surges during late July and August, we could easily see top temperatures in the mid to high 30s across the southern half of the country, with temperatures close to our hitting 30°C elsewhere still to come throughout this summer during the most extreme heat and high pressure rises across our shores (UK and Ireland).
Any slight and inevitable downward trends or variations in this period of heat for late July and early to mid August will still see us bathing in warm to hot temperatures of several degrees Celsius above the seasonal average.
There could also be an exception for a small number of potentially quite cooler and unsettled days during next week and prior to these bigger changes taking place (something we have covered repeatedly in 3 out of 3 weather updates over the past 7–10 days).
https://www.facebook.com/100063588901621/posts/994375436025411/?app=fbl
However, the warm to hot days will also start to make their presence felt in places as early as this weekend and through next week due to ridges of high pressure becoming more influential on our overall weather pattern.
James Madden: Exacta Weather (13/06/2024 - 06:00)
Autumn & Early Winter 2024/25 Plus SSW Updates Now Live 🍂🍁🌪️🌨️🥶
Summer returns this week, but for how long and when is it likely to get hot?
The upcoming week will begin on a rather unsettled and cool note for many as low pressure dominates proceedings, bringing frequent or, at times, thundery showers for many, among some summery periods or bursts.
From in and around Thursday/Friday (11–12 July) and into next weekend, we will see high pressure becoming more influential on our overall weather pattern, and this will see conditions turning much warmer than of late over several days and will also bring potentially humid feeling conditions for many.
These temperatures could easily reach as high as the mid to high 20s in some places and 20°C or higher in some other parts further north to begin with during this period in the best of the summer sunshine due to its strength at this time of year (something not showing elsewhere for the majority of last week).
There are some current questions about a possible interruption to this pattern after next weekend from the main third-party computer models, but I really don't trust these projections, and even if it did occur, it would only be for a day or so and doesn't seem that important of a feature.
However, what does warrant importance is the high pressure build and possibly extreme temperatures (mid to high 30s) for the days to follow on from this and for in and around July 16–17 onwards (something showing consistently on models such as the GFS), possibly earlier if the cooler dip being projected at the moment from elsewhere becomes less desirable within their projections over the coming week.
Additionally, this is also the start of a significant pattern change that will keep us in predominantly warm to very hot temperatures with some obvious variations in intensity throughout the remainder of July and into the start of August at the very least.
The following posting from earlier in the week also stated:
"Unfortunately, others will make more of this and try and pinpoint everything on NEXT WEEK for their own reasons and to make me look wrong, but I can't have been any more clearer on the dates for this, which is now extremely likely to happen."
https://www.facebook.com/100063588901621/posts/990023123127309/
Our 12-week in advance forecast also covered the dates of July 10–20 as a "high confidence" scenario for this to occur, particularly for in and around July 15–17.
https://exactaweather.com/summer-2024-free-report
More to follow on this shortly.
James Madden: Exacta Weather
(08/07/2024, 05:28)
Our Autumn 2024 (Sept-Dec) and early Winter 2024/25 + SSW reports are now available to view at:
A mixed week to come with a significant and imminent pattern change later to allow for the mid-July heat!
Throughout the upcoming week, we will see low pressure impacting our weather in terms of some cooler and windy weather, particularly across parts of the north and in Scotland and Ireland for in and around Thursday, where it could even become unusually stormy or feel quite autumnal due to some moderate to strong winds at times.
Additionally, many other parts will also be seeing some quite cloudy and at least some breezy weather at times throughout this week, among some warmer periods when the sun creeps through in places, and the strength of the sun at this time of the year could still turn things quite warm at times in the best of the sunshine and bring temperatures ranging in the low to mid-20s for parts of the south and east.
These potential cooler periods for long periods in June and the first half of July were also concisely covered for the "first half of summer" due to a more southern-driven jet stream in our early April and the unchanged weather report for this summer in the below (see pages 1 and 3).
https://exactaweather.com/summer-2024-free-report
However, we now expect the more southern-driven jet stream to start to drive northwards from in and around this time next week and during the following week, starting on July 8th.
This will allow for our shores (UK and Ireland) to come under a much warmer airflow over an extended period from this pattern change, and it will also place us in an extremely favourable position for high pressure rises and some hot to very hot temperatures on a widespread scale from in and around mid-July and throughout much of the second half of the month.
The latest GFS model projections have also incorporated some very hot options for us around this same period in two of their last four model runs, and this is something that will become more frequent and strengthen over the next several days. It could also take the pattern change to actually occur within the next 5–10 days before the main third-party computer models become fully aware of these widespread or extreme hot periods in July.
More forecast details are to follow on this shortly.
James Madden: Exacta Weather (30/06/2024 05:00)
Who's ready for summer, and are there any signs of a change to warm and hot weather?
Throughout today, we will see an improving theme for many away from parts of the far north, with some decent sunny spells in among variable cloud cover at times with relatively dry weather across the UK and Ireland and temperatures potentially nudging 20°C in parts of the south.
Sunday looks like more of the same (not a washout weekend again), and usable weather will be in place among variable cloud cover and developing sunny spells for many once again, with the exception of some showery weather in parts of the far north and Ireland, with temperatures once again possibly nudging 20°C in parts of the south, particularly in parts of southeast England.
Unfortunately, Monday tells a bit of a different story, and many areas could see some showers throughout the afternoon and early evening, and some of these could turn potentially thunderous with hail in some places.
The main third-party computer models then want to agree on another fairly cool and unsettled theme for the remainder of next week and the next several days, just as they did for this week.
However, in reality, some areas will actually be staying quite dry with some decent spells of sunshine throughout next week, when high pressure is still likely to float closely towards our shores around midweek, thus bringing some potentially drier and quite sunny conditions over a number of days and with temperatures possibly touching or exceeding the 20°C mark in places within this period.
The current kind of setup across our shores and weather pattern continues to keep the much warmer to hot weather away from our shores at present and often makes many of the other forecasters typically lean towards cool and unsettled conditions in their week ahead forecasts, when in reality the weather we experience at ground level is somewhat different and nowhere near as unsettled as their projections.
Additionally, many areas have seen a quite dry and sunny start to June this year, but with reduced temperatures due to this type of setup, and it has therefore not been the total washout and unsettled period that has been repeatedly projected from elsewhere, as well as what I've been trying to point out in my forecast updates.
However, there are now some good and increasing signals for change just after mid-month and into the final part of June within our own forecast projections that appear to repeatedly build high pressure and some warm to potentially hot temperatures across our shores within this period, and this switch should be more than capable of bringing the warmest weather of the year to date to many locations within the UK and Ireland.
The main third-party computer models have already 'downgraded' the scale of the very cool and unsettled weather going forward and during the past few days of model runs, and we can expect further changes to these projections going forward and to pave the way for a very warm to exceptionally hot July with the high possibility of some sort of mega or super heatwave developing for an extended duration within this period.
Further enhanced forecast details are to follow on this shortly, with the Azores High scenario making a move.
Unfortunately, I've embarrassingly lost my way a little lately, guys, and have gotten a bit distracted by trolls and haters suddenly appearing from nowhere and giving me a tough time (something I said I'd always try to ignore but easier said than done).
An additional and important update to follow on this shortly...
Facebook still has restrictions on my posts, but for apparently sharing links to my posts after speaking to them, and despite no violations on my account (but at least I now know where I was going wrong, and hopefully the restrictions will now be lifted soon).
James Madden: Exacta Weather (08/06/24 - 06:00)
Our several-week in advance summer 2024 forecast covered a potentially decent and warm start to summer this year and when temperatures approached the mid-20s in places over the weekend, plus more to come later this week and in and around mid-June.
Summer 2024 update: 'The hottest summer ever' last week and now '50 days of rain' this week?
There are lots of '50 days of rain' articles doing the rounds in the media this week, just as 'the hottest summer ever' articles were last week (see below link and explanation).
Our 4-page and now-free summer 2024 report covers June to August in extensive details that have remained unchanged for several weeks, as well as what to really expect throughout this summer.
https://exactaweather.com/summer-2024-free-report
This also includes forecast details for early June and incoming warm to hot weather (states this one is of much higher confidence than the late May one in early January and our several weeks ahead spring report).
However, last weekend was warm and much more settled at times than earlier washout indications, with some variance across the country. Additionally, my own location had around 70% warm and sunny weather and 30% rain or heavy rain during the bank holiday weekend, and other spots also reached a warm 21 Celsius (6C above average for May).
Not a heatwave by any means, but also not a major washout for everywhere either!
https://exactaweather.com/summer-2024-free-report
James Madden: Exacta Weather (May 29, 2024, 06:00)
Early SSW projections for later this year...
The posting below highlights the multiple and 'major' high-risk SSW events from earlier this year (January and February) and the earlier minor one, several months ahead of their occurrence (September 2023), and is largely the overall reason why we have had no real major hot or prolonged periods of weather for this year as of yet.
https://www.facebook.com/share/p/ky24vhpZH3ioyBpV/
Additionally, our very early but somewhat high-confidence SSW indications for later THIS YEAR are not currently showing multiple SSW events for early winter; however, they are strongly hinting at a solitary and much earlier 'major' SSW event and prior to us stepping into 2025.
It is very early days on this, but if major SSW events can stall spring and the arrival of warm to hot weather to our shores, then imagine what an early one can potentially do to our weather pattern in early winter under the right sort of circumstances, and I'm sure the coldies will welcome this type of early information on this. ❄️🌨️🥶
It would certainly help line us for a number of short to moderate-length cold and wintry shots of much better severity than recent years at the very least, and even under the most unfavourable kinds of setups for this type of weather during the first half of winter this year.
In addition to the highlighted posting of this actual post (September 23, 2023), the following national news articles (Daily Mirror) also covered our early SSW projections for 2024 and the earlier Nov/Dec cold and snow plus the mild/very mild and unsettled weather conditions that also followed on from this later in that period from several months and weeks ahead.
https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/beast-east-phenomenon-making-return-31070837
https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/uk-weather-expert-says-snow-31396644
More to follow on this in the coming weeks and months via the various links on our new homepage and via the 6-month ahead and seasonal reports sections below:
https://exactaweather.com/6-month-ahead-forecast-uk
James Madden: Exacta Weather (27/05/24 - 06:00)
Summer 2024 weather forecast update + a high pressure 'heat dome' heading to the UK and Ireland this summer!
In essence, a heat dome is an area of high pressure that becomes almost locked in position, trapping very warm to hot air across our shores for prolonged periods of time.
We can also expect a much higher than normal risk for this type of jet stream and weather pattern to allow for the development of a heat dome situation at times throughout the first half of summer this year, particularly during a particular period in July and potentially earlier in the season during June.
This will largely be due to quite a wavy jet stream around this period, and some strong areas of high pressure and atmospheric conditions will become almost stagnated across the British Isles for at least a 7–14-day period within this part of the forecasting period.
These types of setups could easily bring some sustained and excessively hot temperatures at the peak of these hot weather events, and the heat could literally top out in the mid to high 30 Celsius mark once this heat starts to become trapped and locked in across our shores.
It must also be noted that we are also expecting some quite indifferent weather at times throughout this summer and away from these projected periods of heat during the first half of summer this year, so this does not mean a clear and entirely hot summer throughout (something we have always maintained since earlier this year).
However, the start of the meteorological summer does now look favourably warm to hot at times during June, with the potential for a very BIG and maybe even historical heatwave within this same period (more favourable for the bigger heatwave/heat dome scenario in July).
James Madden: Exacta Weather
Further enhanced weather forecast details for summer 2024 (June-August) plus 6-month ahead forecasts:
https://exactaweather.com/commercial-summer-2024
https://exactaweather.com/6-month-ahead-forecast-uk
Media and Facebook proof links from last summer (2023) and our several week- or month-ahead correct predictions for the record June heatwave and the hottest September on record:
https://www.facebook.com/100063588901621/posts/781976123932011/
https://www.facebook.com/100063588901621/posts/782280300568260/
https://m.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=664154299047528&id=100063588901621
https://www.facebook.com/100063588901621/posts/689855379810753/